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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1221 (permalink)
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rdaune View Post
Hi Gary,

Can you please tell me why you do not search a long after the big bar volume up about one hour ago?

Thanks a lot.

Raphael



And, Part Two of the answer;


OK, I had technical issues, then there was a second place that might have been a valid long entry. It was after the major volume burst, I had just logged back in, made myself talk through that it was better to not trade right now, etc...

So I look at what I just missed. Major burst, high volume. But what was more telling than the up move was the bar that followed it. Sellers were waiting for that burst, and it was obvious, especially after coming in late to see what clues were left behind. Below is a 1 minute chart of the major volume up-move from today.

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The upper and lower support and resistance zones were probably well known this morning. I had them on my charts from late last night and they were not incredibly esoteric, fairly straightforward zones. I had thought last night as I was planning my trading for today, that I would take a breakout in either direction, and had commented early this morning that both zones had been tested overnight, both held, and so either or both may have lost some initial effect. But I also said if one did hold and the other broke, that could see follow through.

So, get back in the mindset of this morning, before we saw this happen. Support had just held, AGAIN. The market started up, this should be a possible sign that crude was headed for new highs. Traders who got short at the confirmed overhead resistance started to see that and exitted or reversed, and new traders started to climb on board. We're goin' up!

But, when price tested the water above resistance, there were so many sellers just sitting there waiting, almost knowing price was coming to them at that point. And large positions RELY on that type of occurence as an opportunity to liquidate. They seized the volume, and you could see the second huge volume bar almost melt into resistance.

Now that does happen sometimes, and then the buyers come back, and can sometimes eat right through all the sellers. I saw that back when the Iraq concerns started, for example, but it happens often.

But today, it seemed like most traders got the signal. Sellers were hiding above that line, and were hoping buyers would come back to visit, so they could cram some more orders down their throats. Buyers weren't biting, and price slowly slipped away without even a retest. See the wimpy volume and not one single close above a two-bar high, on a ONE MINUTE chart.

So that is why I did not take the second potential long trade today.

Price moves by volume, and when volume comes in and price goes nowhere, take notice.

Hope that helps.

Stay safe!

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  #1222 (permalink)
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Summary for the day;

6 attempted trades, 5 executed trades, 1 misfire.

Failed entry long
+22 short
+31 short
+ 24 short
- 16 short
+ 52 short

Net +113

For personal record, I have a major infection and am on Vicodin and antibiotics, and should not have been trading today. Despite the performance, I am pushing my luck.

And yet, if it were not Friday and I had no other choice, I know I'd be up half the night again, doing chart analysis, reading market news, studying trading books, or typing in this journal. The obsession is good, drive is life in some ways, but the crude withdrawal has made me insatiable. And if I am not careful, vulnerable. The time off seemed like a good thing, but the rebound has been relentless.

I hesitate to press "enter" on this one.

Learning to trade well became my world several years ago, and today runs in the background of nearly everything I do. While it has made me a better trader, it sometimes makes me lose sight of everything else. I struggle to find balance some days, especially noticeable after taking time off over the year's end. Marking support and resistance levels in bed with a laptop, in the middle of the night, while fighting a fever, is not balance.

RELAX.

relax

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  #1223 (permalink)
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That is the MTP Elliott wave tool - helps me frame market structure and the prime reason why I don't dump Ninja in favour of Ensign Windows

I don't endorse it, as one can use Fibs and pivots to do the same SR levels, but I have grown used to it. It's USP is its quick RR calibration tool for position sizing, something I change on every trade.

I agree on NT (having tried Ensign Windows, IRT, Sierra, Multicharts, OpenECry, Xtrader, Motive Wave), I found it to be the 2nd least bothersome tool (despite its many flaws). The best is by a large mile; Ensign, of course (my slant)

You said about balance - a thoughtful thing to say, it is a struggle most of the time to be balanced, but I haven't achieved it yet, not sure I will. Condemned to trading for the rest of my existence, but there could be worse things to be saddled with - a lack of dreams or passion, remaining muddled in mediocrity for all time, or worse - simply not having something to do that one gets immersed in.

So be it, we have all our vices

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“Visceral” and “Darwinian”. Those are the well chosen words by a fellow trader to describe a part of what makes trading so obsessive. I read those words over several times, smiling, feeling as if a little secret had been told to me. A new light had been turned on.


As an analytical person, I had believed that if I were to become a great trader, my task would be one of great study and contemplation. From the high-tech computer platforms and data feeds, to the understanding of formulas used for indicators to generate their numbers, to the memorization of fibonacci numbers and confluence configurations, to the recognition of chart formations, to the study of the human psychology, to the risk and probability calculations... I approached trading as though it were one of the highest intellectual pursuits I had ever encountered.


Meanwhile, the part of trading that may lie just beneath the obvious, the part that may just be the draw for all types of backgrounds and personalities, may be as simple as the natural drive to 1) survive, 2) thrive, and 3) conquer. It could be argued that those steps exist in all dominant members of all species throughout all of time. That seed must be planted somewhere in the genetic makeup of life itself.


Despite the polished appearance of the major financial trading institutions of the world, despite the impressive arrays of trading rooms with their hundreds of brightly colored monitors and business-dressed operators, despite the security and wisdom projected by our financial advisors... what is actually occurring, in some ways, is a game of kill or be killed. War is being waged in an eerily quiet and dignified manner. Legendary fortunes are made, and lifelong dreams are smashed, with a cup of coffee in one hand and a computer mouse in the other.


So what I think I realized this evening, is that the reason trading can become so much more of an obsession than some other business pursuits is that it may encompass some of everything. It is refined, yet raw. Intellectual, yet primal. Calculating, yet instinctual. Rewarding, yet dangerous. It is survival of the fittest, where somehow being a good chess player could be an advantage.


Thanks to Deucalion. Great insight.

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Until the market opens Monday morning, decisions about trading are tough to make. But, based on the chart above and posted earlier, I am cautiously bullish on crude oil. What gives me the greatest pause is the enourmous volume (3000vol 1min) of sellers that hit the market high on Friday, right on target with the "original" downward trendline (shown in dark blue). The remainder of the day on Friday I had no interest in anything but the short side, and was actually surprised to not see a breakdown in both CL and ES.

However, crude is resting on a local double bottom (green arrows), and has yet to even reach it's 618 retracement from the major move up. That combination, in such close proximity of price range, has washout potential written all over it.

On the downside, a break below the local DB around 97.50 could make it to at least 96.90, and a break below that could be a decent run. There is another chart posted earlier that shows a lack of major structure for a good distance below.

I have drawn two bullish wedges, one possibly non-conforming (purple). A breakout above either of those on decent volume would provide an early sign of a potential of higher prices, and there should be significant short stops above the market (suggested by the green arrows pointing towards tops) after Friday's ominous resistance.


Last edited by GaryD; January 29th, 2012 at 11:21 AM.
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Approaching key area (in blue)

 
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Sipping coffee, watching volume...

I saw support last night around 98.20-98.50. price hit 98.52, which is close enough to be alert. Now the focus shifts to seeing what happens here.

The 9:30 open for the ES may provide a false move so I don,t like being ahead of it.


Last edited by GaryD; January 30th, 2012 at 10:23 AM.
 
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I am still in Houston and not getting the bandwidth I need. I just took a long on the re-approach to support, but lost connection and calle the broker to flatten me. Net was +8 ticks, but I am done until I get a better service.

I may try one entry without being on futures.io (formerly BMT), and will post later if I do.


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