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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1211 (permalink)
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  #1212 (permalink)
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I'm just laughing

 
  #1213 (permalink)
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closed +52 and considering myself lucky on that one!

 
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Go have a beer.

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  #1216 (permalink)
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I quit for the day. Too much drama.


I will go back tonight and fill in commentary on some decisions and what seemed like some might find contradictions. yes, Friday short covering is "classic", and that is what we saw.


But, the overhead resistance this morning gave a clear reversal signal, and then the short covering rally hit the 618 retrace of today's major down wave.


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On the 6 range, that also happened to be almost to the tick the 100% of W1 corrective, and the 262% external of w4 corrective. The tight confluence with the known reversal earlier gave me all I needed to get in.


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But, the ES short cover burst nearly spooked me out. I grabbed my stop and place right above price, but it would not hit. I thought maybe my feed went out. Never that I can remember has that happened to me. I did that just as I would hit "Close", but got lucky by one tick. No answer other than that.


There is a lot of confusion in price action today. Very tough day and I am way too tense to keep trading. Glad it is Friday. Today was a great day for me, but the tension may not be worth it. Near violence in the markets today.

if the ES would have just let go we mught have had clear sailing, but it was extremely stubborn around 1307, and we had such a wide support zone underneath crude, it's no wonder the action was so goofy. Maybe Monday will let those in power decide what they want to do.


Last edited by GaryD; January 27th, 2012 at 03:31 PM. Reason: better explanation
 
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rdaune View Post
Gary,

Last week you told us about the classic short covering of friday evening...
Why did you short this time?

Thanks

We did have a short covering rally of sorts, but you have to read price action potential inside the larger timeframe chart patterns. What we saw was basically a range bound market.

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But, if you scale out some you can see that resistance was also a possible right shoulder pivot for a minor head & shoulders. (LSP is left shoulder)

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So, when the market tried to breakout this morning on very convincing volume, and then it was like dead quiet after, that was a bad sign for longs. It showed possible exhaustion, or what may be referred to as a "wash out" move.

As soon as price fell immediately (relatively) back below the breakout pivot and the 6 range T3s, that is when I took my first short.

The reason I continued short was the breakout failure was a stronger signal to me than previous support. But, the reason I did not want to hold too long was price had never made it to 99.00 of the support zone, which was the 618 retracement. Anything above that and you must consider the original trend is still in place. And that is why we did see an akward but still valid 5WM up. Shorts, who were absolutely correct at the top, needed to reconsider as price approached that 99.00 area. Were they feeling that lucky? Or would it be better to bail early on a Friday? What we saw was the latter.

I tried one more time to enter short at a possible ABC correction, but got out at a loss, as the ES would not let go today. I then went short again at the 618 on the 10 minute, because it also had the confluence I showed when I took the trade, and the market had without a doubt showed it did not like prices above resistance this morning.

Does that make sense?

Trading is extremely confusing. I am one who does not believe it can be programmed with any major efficiency. One day everything works, the next day the market is schizophrenic. Even GREAT odds may only be 70% for anything really meaningful, so you can't take a probable pattern like a short coverng on a Friday and apply it in every instance. How far it will go down is anyone's guess, but today the market gave a firm "no" to a breakout above resistance, and so I traded that accordingly, passing on the possible short covering rally and waiting patiently for a short trade again. I was wrong the first time and lucked out the 2nd.


Last edited by GaryD; January 27th, 2012 at 10:22 PM. Reason: typos
 
  #1218 (permalink)
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Now I would like to say pompously that, if I hadn't spent all night foolng around with a trial of Multicharts 7, that I would have seen this magnificent symmetry in the market, whcih was repsected to the tick (wow).

But this exists, and it is my job to wait for these. Sometimes I get it, other times I am my stubborn, short sighted myself.

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PS - that fooling around wasn't all useless, I did learn a few things AND made my daily target with ease ...he he

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rdaune View Post
Hi Gary,

Can you please tell me why you do not search a long after the big bar volume up about one hour ago?

Thanks a lot.

Raphael


Sorry for taking so long to get back to this. I am not sure which long you were referring to, but there were two places today for a long. The first I actually did attempt to take. It occured shortly after I posted this image below.


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I hit "Buy Ask" and the position indicator showed I was in about 30 ticks above where the market was trading, and my profit and stop loss brackets were both up there with it. Price was trading BELOW my stop. I hit "Close" immediately.

I have no idea what happened, and the entry does not show in my transaction history, but I had seen this before (as much as I love Ninja Trader, this happens sometimes), and knew I probably had at some point lost my connection and was not able to access the market, even though everything continued to move on my chart and it said I was connected.

I am in Houston today, on a hotel wireless connection. The last time something similar occured I was also in a hotel, when I had to call my broker a few months ago for something similar, where I could not get a trade to close, could not move my orders on the screen, etc. That time I was in and could not get out. This time I was out and could not get in.

I travel a LOT, and realize the risks of not having redundant connections, but issues like today's happen so rarely. I know, bad trader...

To try to make up for that, I always do a "speed test" when I am on a new connection, I never enter without a stop, I have my broker on speed dial, and also taped to my laptop. And, I never take on more than a single contract, EVER, without my home-based setup of redundant feeds and two machines. Even a flash-crash would most likely not become a financial catastrophe, but I do realize it would hurt.

Truthfully though, when you trade electronically, home or not, redundancy or not, things happen. I was with Tradestation a few years ago, lost my data feed, and could not get through to the trade desk. I was in a chat room and was asking other traders where the market was as I kept trying to get through. It turned out Tradestation had a major glitch on their end and did not have the support team to handle the call volume. That was the day I moved to Ninja, as the other traders talking me through were using that platform.

Anyway, back to this morning; by the time I logged back in it was too late. There had already been a strong move up on significant volume. I was somewhat upset about the whole thing, having missed a good trade on platform issues, so I knew to not try to trade until I got myself settled back in. (I have done that before, trading because I missed a trade. Not good)

That was probably why I did not try to follow the long initially, and the longer I waited to get my mind calmed back down, the more the market kept getting weaker. Once it crossed the dominant T3 with no issues, it occured to me; this market is going lower. And so, the first short trade posted was actually my first executed trade, but not my first attempt. I wish I could have gone long.

I would have replied earlier, but trading from a laptop and posting on futures.io (formerly BMT) is a circus all by itself, and things were so fast today... And I don't recommend trading on a laptop in a hotel


Last edited by GaryD; January 27th, 2012 at 10:08 PM. Reason: typos
 
  #1220 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Now I would like to say pompously that, if I hadn't spent all night foolng around with a trial of Multicharts 7, that I would have seen this magnificent symmetry in the market, whcih was repsected to the tick (wow).

But this exists, and it is my job to wait for these. Sometimes I get it, other times I am my stubborn, short sighted myself.

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PS - that fooling around wasn't all useless, I did learn a few things AND made my daily target with ease ...he he



Now that my secret of the day is out, your sin may seem pale in comparison! lol

I tried to figure out Multicharts once, never did get it and was not interested enough to struggle through. I try any new trial platform that I can find, but may just be too settled in to NT to want to re-learn anything. I messed with Sierra a few weeks ago. It was ok, but kind of clumsy for me. I tried TOS last year, not even close to Ninja from what I could see.

Your chart posted has some selections at the top that I have not seen. "Analysis", "Risk Reward", "Decision Point", and yet still say Ninja at the bottom corner. What is that?


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