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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #111 (permalink)
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Took one contract off at 83.80, pulled stop in on 2nd contract.

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Slight change of opinion. Brought stop up to 6 tick, lowered profit target.

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  #113 (permalink)
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Closed 2nd contract at 84.20. Notr waiting on this countertrend move right now. I have some other things I have to do.

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  #114 (permalink)
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Net trade result: contract #1 was 32 ticks, contract #2 was 72 ticks. I am done for today, I have to be out of town most of the rest of the week. This one was stubborn, understandable due to the bearish environment, but this squeeze is actually one of my favorites.

I hope some of you were able to catch this one with me. It was certainly a more advanced trade, and I do not recommend going countertrend unless you really learn what to watch for, but that is part of why I post this in real time, so maybe I can share some things I have finally figured out.

To recap:

1) The ES was way down, so we looked for where buyers might come in. No market moves in one direction for very long on a short term basis.

2) The media has finally turned negative, bringing out the short-side traders in higher numbers. Shorts are there to make money, and not lose money. You watch for a sense that higher trend momentum is fading.

3) We had volume support in CL around the 30 minute left shoulder pivot (LSP)

4) The trend changed to short-term up on the 9 range.

5) Heavy volume came into the ES and caused a reversal on the 10 minute.

6) The 6 range trend changed, and an entry was taken in the area of the lower donchians, with a stop loss just below the pivot that occured just before the trend change.


Profit target #1 was set to be just above the prior high pivots, #2 was a bit of a moving target for me, but I eventually decided for just above the 786 retracement, as this truly was a countertrend move and that is the last point I watch. I talked myself out when it got near there and had crossed the 618 with some failing momentum, stepped out by pulling my PT down to 84.20 while it was still trading there. Dropped my line right on top of price action.


Last edited by GaryD; August 8th, 2011 at 12:36 PM. Reason: typos
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  #115 (permalink)
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This is after the fact, but just to point out the ES reversal that was part of my trade decision process in crude oil today.

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Around 2pm the S&P let loose and broke through until it reached "zone 2", and when it did crude followed as expected. Then ES reversed on a dime and sent the shorts running for cover in a 20 point ES short covering freakout. I enjoy this type of price action. Like watching extreme action/drama.

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Last edited by GaryD; August 8th, 2011 at 04:00 PM. Reason: add chart for ES
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Today is FOMC Day. If I take a trade, it will most likely be early. We are in position for sa short right as I type this, but I don't like entering before the 8:30am volume.

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In addition to not knowing what the opening volume will do, we have a donchian channel crossover on the 6 range

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I am short ready, but watching for volume to tell me when price has gone high enough...

 
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Entering a trade before seeing what volume does is the #1 way for me to make a losing trade.

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  #119 (permalink)
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That "short ready" was waiting for volume confirmation, which never came. And notice the trade would have failed miserably.

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Volume confirmation can occur anywhere in the yellow "zone" shown below. That would be completion of an ABC correction setup. Currently no where near short ready though. We lost trend on both the 9 and the 6.

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