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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1171 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Did I impinge on your journal? Oops! Interesting that different ways to look at the same thing come to to more or less similar views.

Abolutely not. I have continued this thread (originaly intended for different purposes) as something that has become far more instrumental in my own journey than I could have realized. A site like futures.io (formerly BMT) was something I never knew I needed. I kept journals, saved thousands of charts, spreadsheets, backtest results, but this format is so much more dynamic.

Posting publicly on informational topics is one thing; posting a personal journal with all of the realities and imperfections is quite another. One of the great things is I occasionally get feedback like yours that gives me new directions to look into. For example, I know the term Gartley butterfly and have looked at images, but have never studied it.

While I believe it is possible to have too much analysis, I also believe it never hurts to have some logical understanding of what might be left out, and why. Looking at analyisis from as many views as I could handle, working towards gaining a common understanding of it all to at least some degree, and then distilling it all back to something simpler and easier to use effectively again...that is what I have been doing since I started to have an interest in trading. Sometimes it feels to me like I study enough for 10 traders. My wife would agree.

Your input and sharing is appreciated, particularly for keeping it on reinforcing a local topic. Hopefully we will both realize value from each other's insight. You have given me another item on my to-do list.

Take care, thanks.

Gary

 
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That chart you posted, a similar view maybe found in the symmetry around previous day's price. Juxtapose the HLC+P (and SRs) and one can see where price stalled, and then retraced, and then fell again and bounced. This is just a 5M chart, If you do the same with the 60M it is even more telling. As one can see, there are very well defined S/R zones that were respected on the 60M (plus a a lovely Gartley).

Waiting for these "panic" zones takes time, but lends itself to loaded trades. Did I impinge on your journal? Oops! Interesting that different ways to look at the same thing come to to more or less similar views.

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Are those calculations also known as "pivot points", or are you using some other formula? I used to watch pivot points and built a simple Excel spreadsheet to calculate them for the ES by just entering the prior day's high, low and close. The formula is below;

#3 high pivot = High + (( 2 x (Pivot Point - Low))
#2 high pivot = Pivot Point + (( 2 x (Pivot Point - Low))
#1 high pivot = Pivot Point + (Pivot Point - Low)
#1 low pivot = Pivot Point - (High - Pivot Point)
#2 low pivot = Pivot Point - (( 2 x (High - Pivot Point))
#3 low pivot = Low - (( 2 x (High - Pivot Point))


I never tried that with CL though. When I got away from trading the ES I left a lot of things behind.

 
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What is up with the font size on that post above? Maybe it's trying to get my attention?

Sorry for that, tried to edit but couldn't get it any smaller.

 
  #1174 (permalink)
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From a risk to reward perspective, the British Pound has reached an interesting area.

 
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GaryD View Post
Are those calculations also known as "pivot points", or are you using some other formula? I used to watch pivot points and built a simple Excel spreadsheet to calculate them for the ES by just entering the prior day's high, low and close. The formula is below;

#3 high pivot = High + (( 2 x (Pivot Point - Low))
#2 high pivot = Pivot Point + (( 2 x (Pivot Point - Low))
#1 high pivot = Pivot Point + (Pivot Point - Low)
#1 low pivot = Pivot Point - (High - Pivot Point)
#2 low pivot = Pivot Point - (( 2 x (High - Pivot Point))
#3 low pivot = Low - (( 2 x (High - Pivot Point))


I never tried that with CL though. When I got away from trading the ES I left a lot of things behind.

LOL....damn, did I piss you off posting on your journal .....

I use Ensign's SR Auto tool...this explains it comprehensively. SR / Gann / Gartley / Pesavento / VWAp bands...ensign does it all...and does it well

Ensign Software - Tools: Support and Resistance

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Key areas of interest in CL

 
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LOL....damn, did I piss you off posting on your journal .....

I use Ensign's SR Auto tool...this explains it comprehensively. SR / Gann / Gartley / Pesavento / VWAp bands...ensign does it all...and does it well

Ensign Software - Tools: Support and Resistance


Great explanation, particularly the visual. I'll go back and build another spreadsheet for that one and check it out.

The formula I learned was different, but I located my old spreadsheet and put in Thursday's daily values for fun;

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Added to the previous chart as gray dotted lines.

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Last edited by GaryD; January 27th, 2012 at 01:34 AM.
 
  #1178 (permalink)
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Using HLC/3 - and the shown HLC prices (these obviously make a difference)

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Last edited by Deucalion; January 27th, 2012 at 02:17 AM.
 
  #1179 (permalink)
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Key areas of interest in CL



Both initial points of major interest (two LSPs, above and below) responded well in overnight price action. While being a small victory in chart analysis, this also most likely reduces their effectiveness for today's trading for initial approach. However, a breakout of either zone now may have greater significance, as the opposite zone held.

A breakout to the upside would suggest possible continuation of the current uptrend, and if the previous ABC down was significant, could be sizeable over time. A breakout to the downside would establish a minor head & shoulders pattern and should see continuation at least to the measurement of the head to neckline.

Today is Friday, last day for positions to be out to avoid the uncertainty of the market being closed all weekend. Any surprise event could open the market Sunday night any distance from where it closes today. Therefore, a rush to exit around 2:30pm is a good probability.

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Last edited by GaryD; January 27th, 2012 at 08:43 AM.
 
  #1180 (permalink)
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Both SR levels held again, this time with an engulfment.

But I do not like the high volume bar at the top otf the move...


Last edited by GaryD; January 27th, 2012 at 11:07 AM.

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