Abolutely not. I have continued this thread (originaly intended for different purposes) as something that has become far more instrumental in my own journey than I could have realized. A site like futures.io (formerly BMT) was something I never knew I needed. I kept journals, saved thousands of charts, spreadsheets, backtest results, but this format is so much more dynamic.
Posting publicly on informational topics is one thing; posting a personal journal with all of the realities and imperfections is quite another. One of the great things is I occasionally get feedback like yours that gives me new directions to look into. For example, I know the term Gartley butterfly and have looked at images, but have never studied it.
While I believe it is possible to have too much analysis, I also believe it never hurts to have some logical understanding of what might be left out, and why. Looking at analyisis from as many views as I could handle, working towards gaining a common understanding of it all to at least some degree, and then distilling it all back to something simpler and easier to use effectively again...that is what I have been doing since I started to have an interest in trading. Sometimes it feels to me like I study enough for 10 traders. My wife would agree.
Your input and sharing is appreciated, particularly for keeping it on reinforcing a local topic. Hopefully we will both realize value from each other's insight. You have given me another item on my to-do list.
Are those calculations also known as "pivot points", or are you using some other formula? I used to watch pivot points and built a simple Excel spreadsheet to calculate them for the ES by just entering the prior day's high, low and close. The formula is below;
#3 high pivot = High + (( 2 x (Pivot Point - Low))
#2 high pivot = Pivot Point + (( 2 x (Pivot Point - Low))
#1 high pivot = Pivot Point + (Pivot Point - Low)
#1 low pivot = Pivot Point - (High - Pivot Point)
#2 low pivot = Pivot Point - (( 2 x (High - Pivot Point))
#3 low pivot = Low - (( 2 x (High - Pivot Point))
I never tried that with CL though. When I got away from trading the ES I left a lot of things behind.
Both initial points of major interest (two LSPs, above and below) responded well in overnight price action. While being a small victory in chart analysis, this also most likely reduces their effectiveness for today's trading for initial approach. However, a breakout of either zone now may have greater significance, as the opposite zone held.
A breakout to the upside would suggest possible continuation of the current uptrend, and if the previous ABC down was significant, could be sizeable over time. A breakout to the downside would establish a minor head & shoulders pattern and should see continuation at least to the measurement of the head to neckline.
Today is Friday, last day for positions to be out to avoid the uncertainty of the market being closed all weekend. Any surprise event could open the market Sunday night any distance from where it closes today. Therefore, a rush to exit around 2:30pm is a good probability.
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Last edited by GaryD; January 27th, 2012 at 07:43 AM.