When the market does not meet my plan, and I do not have an equal alternate, I stay out. I miss plenty of great moves that way, and actually miss some of the more spectacular fast ones. But my goal is not to catch every little sway of price. It is to have an EDGE. My best edge is when my chart analysis lines up with actuality. And my analysis will fail on a regular basis. But, it STILL gives me a phenomenal edge, as long as I follow it.
I was ready to trade a bullish market, the market in general had other plans. Being ok with waiting for my turn has been possibly the biggest turning factor in my net profitability. I still maintain an average of roughly only 60% profitable trades, but that is enough to keep me net profitable week after week after week.
Yesterday I played games with myself on scalping and testing, wreckless for my level of experience, but I think I was experiencing crude oil withdrawal and got obsessed with feeling it live to find my balanace again. In hindsight what I did was immature, regardless of the winning day. I got lost for a few hours, seeing if I still understood enough to spot tiny swings. Learning to scalp was also a big part of learning to trade, and so I value that understanding and felt I had let it decline. I had a good profit base from the only real trade and knew I could at least not give it all back, and wanted to see where I was in my scalping. End result; not as good as I once was, or at least not for that day, but still good enough not to hurt myself.
I did have an alternate for a short breakout today below the major trendline, but price is still far from that area. I may take some time tonight and tighten my SR zones some, and may trade either direction based on some smaller timeframe chart criteria. I have been using 240 minute charts recently, which is higher than I typically use, and so that produces gaps of 100-200 or more ticks in trade zones. Therefore, less opportunities, missed moves, etc.
Last edited by GaryD; January 26th, 2012 at 04:09 PM.
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That chart you posted, a similar view maybe found in the symmetry around previous day's price. Juxtapose the HLC+P (and SRs) and one can see where price stalled, and then retraced, and then fell again and bounced. This is just a 5M chart, If you do the same with the 60M it is even more telling. As one can see, there are very well defined S/R zones that were respected on the 60M (plus a a lovely Gartley).
Waiting for these "panic" zones takes time, but lends itself to loaded trades. Did I impinge on your journal? Oops! Interesting that different ways to look at the same thing come to to more or less similar views.
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