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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1161 (permalink)
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30 minute shows trget just below possible LSP

 
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Took a little heat, movbed stop to 10 ticks

 
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closed +24

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I may re-enter, and may just be a little jumpy frmo not trading crude for a month or more, but I saw a volume bar that said to back off

 
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Out of practice, yes. Jumpy, yes. Avoided a 30+ tick reversal...

I like this area for a long though and may ride the same path once again.

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This is a 15 minute version of the chart that was posted last night showing this area of many major pivots over the past few weeks/months (I can't recall te original chart timeframe)

Crude could still slip a few ticks and the zone could remain valid.


On the 6 -range, it has now caught the market 3 times in a row.

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The T3s are starting to tighten and a move up could make an official 6 range reversal now.

Had I not been long-biased based on higher chart structure, using the 6 range alone would have produced a beautiful short. But that is selective backtesting.

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  #1169 (permalink)
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Did not take another trade, just watched that fall, thinkng it might be a washout but never got any confirmation.


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However, the market did catch at the next zone lower...

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Net for the day;

1 trade at 24 ticks


When the market does not meet my plan, and I do not have an equal alternate, I stay out. I miss plenty of great moves that way, and actually miss some of the more spectacular fast ones. But my goal is not to catch every little sway of price. It is to have an EDGE. My best edge is when my chart analysis lines up with actuality. And my analysis will fail on a regular basis. But, it STILL gives me a phenomenal edge, as long as I follow it.

I was ready to trade a bullish market, the market in general had other plans. Being ok with waiting for my turn has been possibly the biggest turning factor in my net profitability. I still maintain an average of roughly only 60% profitable trades, but that is enough to keep me net profitable week after week after week.

Yesterday I played games with myself on scalping and testing, wreckless for my level of experience, but I think I was experiencing crude oil withdrawal and got obsessed with feeling it live to find my balanace again. In hindsight what I did was immature, regardless of the winning day. I got lost for a few hours, seeing if I still understood enough to spot tiny swings. Learning to scalp was also a big part of learning to trade, and so I value that understanding and felt I had let it decline. I had a good profit base from the only real trade and knew I could at least not give it all back, and wanted to see where I was in my scalping. End result; not as good as I once was, or at least not for that day, but still good enough not to hurt myself.

I did have an alternate for a short breakout today below the major trendline, but price is still far from that area. I may take some time tonight and tighten my SR zones some, and may trade either direction based on some smaller timeframe chart criteria. I have been using 240 minute charts recently, which is higher than I typically use, and so that produces gaps of 100-200 or more ticks in trade zones. Therefore, less opportunities, missed moves, etc.


Last edited by GaryD; January 26th, 2012 at 05:09 PM.
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That chart you posted, a similar view maybe found in the symmetry around previous day's price. Juxtapose the HLC+P (and SRs) and one can see where price stalled, and then retraced, and then fell again and bounced. This is just a 5M chart, If you do the same with the 60M it is even more telling. As one can see, there are very well defined S/R zones that were respected on the 60M (plus a a lovely Gartley).

Waiting for these "panic" zones takes time, but lends itself to loaded trades. Did I impinge on your journal? Oops! Interesting that different ways to look at the same thing come to to more or less similar views.

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