Today was my first crude trade this year, but the shift in markets has been a great experience and given me more to work with in crude or other markets. It caused me to look at things with more objectivity. I will get back to crude full time very soon, just felt I needed to expand my thinking some. Overall I have made money trading the 6B, but have learned I don't like the trading hours as much.
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The CL chart this morning looked fairly straight forward compared to the view at this point in price. The local double bottom did take hold and makes a very bullish statement. However, price exhausted in a very well-defined S/R area (marked by many red and green arrows), which also is the 618 (red) of the prior major wave down, possible minor double top, possible lower degree RSP, and the higher bearish trendline hangs just slightly above this area.
We have on a lower scale a possible bullish wedge (red vs blue slanted lines), and looking slightly further back a possible symmetrical triangle (red and green slanted).
I would like to see price return to the 382 for a long, or the minor LSP (yellow horizontal lines), also the minor 618 (green) on the support side, and then reverse again for a good long signal. Or, break free of the overhead issues.
Or, blow out the trendline to the downside...
I only caught 52 ticks out of a very impressive 200 tick +/- move to the upside today. After the correct assumption this morning I am a little disappointed with myself for being spooked by the volatility. If it was going to be a confirmed end to an ABC, I should have been more patient. But I have never really understood EIA volume, and have seen possibly more breakouts in the wrong direction than not, so hesitated and then bailed while I was ahead.
For the remainder of the day I scalped back and forth, way more than I should have, long and short for the rest of the day. Overall caught an additional 22 ticks, but the commissions on my extra 28 trades ( big violation of my own rules) made it mostly a wash. Not trades to be proud of, but I felt somewhat like a stranger and was just feeling the motion, testing if I could guess minor turning points. Lucky to have not given a lot back that way.
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