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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #1111 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Above is the same chart as the previous post, but with the time increased to 90 minutes to show a larger view.

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 mfbreakout 
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GaryD View Post


Structure

To anyone who may read this, my recent posts on the pursuit of a trade in the British Pound may seem to lack reason. But what is going on here is that i have never really traded the 6B, but saw an interesting daily chart pattern, and decided to expand my knowledge and experience.

The post above I initially only typed "Structure" as a note to myself. What I said means to me that this is an area of significant structure, the 618 retracement of the recent move up, and the breakout pivot from the prior move. Also, "sturucture" refers to the wave measurements that are beginning to become available after the past two day's motion. Not only did price pause at the tow significant points stated already, but this area is a minor exhaustion fib, an alternate projection of potential W1/WA, and external fib of potential W2/WB. So, all the lines coming together in the same area as other potential confirming factors gives me more information to process decisions with, aka "structure.

The red and magenta lines are approximate areas for a W4, if this is a downside continuation, and if the wave structure manifests on this timeframe. All of the lime green lines above this area are varying degrees of long confirmation. Some are minor trendlines, some major trendlines, some are areas of believed stop loss placement from short traders who are obviously in this market.

I will eventually execute another trade here in the 6B, but I am just letting the market make it's case first.




Nice Gary. I like it as it helps to improve my ACD. I will not be posting charts on your thread anymore as it looks like it's confusing some people as approaches are different. There is an old ACD thread. I have been posting there and that thread is more appropriate for my charts.

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 GaryD 
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The 6B has decided to pause here at the 618 retracement zone. A rest here is expected. I have found myself intensely intrigued with a new market, content to just observe and track the motion for now. At this particular juncture I have no strong opinion. All areas of possible support were blown through as non-existent up until this area, and a consolidation here could just as easily continue to the downside as it could reverse to the upside. That condition in itself has added an element of suspense for me, only adding to the entertainment value of tracking this instrument that has become somewhat of my new toy. Whether it becomes a familiar favorite as crude oil has, or if it is soon to be discarded after losing it's novelty remains to be seen.

The holiday low trading volume, the time required for the festivities of the holiday season, my tradition of looking inward at the turn of the year, and my recent travel schedule, have all contributed to my current state of being more spectator than participant in a sport that would otherwise have my full participation.

In some ways, it's like my goal has shifted recently from pursuing a winning trade to some version of the pursuing the perfect trade. Or maybe not perfection, I'm not sure that is reality, but a radical shift of criteria. There are times when I nearly "know" what is going to happen next. There are times when I think I know. There are times when I think something has a good chance, other times something might happen, and times I really don't have a clue. I am spending a lot of time listening to myself as I roll through those moments, feeling the difference between one to another.

I feel ready to strike at any moment on the 6B, but not with any feeling of needing to. I'm content to watch and wait for it to set itself up, learning as I observe. With the exception that all markets share obvious common characteristics, this market is almost completely foreign to me. I have traded it's cousin the 6E, but this one has it's own peculiarities, and that element seems to be intoxicating to me for the moment. I read a book on relationships years ago that offered a formula; hope + doubt = passion. Those are not the exact words to apply here, not sure I can define what I am actually trying to get out by that reference, but somewhere there is a similar connection going on.

I'm surprised I have not watched crude at all. I see where it is on the front page of MarketWatch each day, I saw that the EIA occured on a Thursday this week. But not a single chart marking on crude for several days now.

I believe that by expanding my understanding by following something different, it will cause me to see some things as new again, cause me to sharpen my senses, force me to open myself to different interpretations, and allow me to mature a step further as a trader. As I type this it occured to me I'm not even considering money as I watch this market. I just want to know it.

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 GaryD 
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If the 4-range on the 6B can be trusted, there has already been an upside reversal. I keep going back and forth right now, and may actually stay with the familiar motion of a 6-range. On that version 6B may be setting up a reversal just now.



If I could write an ideal script, a minor DB will occur in the 618 zone. That should at least catch some attention.


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 GaryD 
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I am starting to see a possible confirmation moving closer to the initial potential stop loss placement if we are to realize an upward move. The thickest dashed and angled-down green line should be far enough to clear the range of a possible W4, and be enough of a move to trigger a reaction that could then target stops overhead. If the move can just get some traction it has a lot of potential fuel building up now.

Plan B involves the wishlist minor double bottom, after which the buy ready criteria could be even further down.

My version of a "trading plan" is what is shown on this chart. I am planning for what I will do if the market does X. My plan is contingent on what the market does, but every line on the chart above means something to me, and helps define my "plan" if a certain movement occurs.


Edit: I don't typically write all that text on the charts. The line color and placement is shorthand. I labeled this chart to post here and try to show the hidden meanings of all those trainwreck looking lines everywhere. How they are placed and clored really matters less than the fact that they help make sense of what could otherwise seem like random walk.

Lines & Extensions examples of color coding: Yellow is some version of a LSP. Blue is undecided but typically a pivot. Red and green are trade direction if the line gets broken. Bright blue is significant support (like the prior breakout pivot).

Fib examples of color-coding: "Spring Green" is some version of exhaustion. Red and magenta in a pair is for Wave alternates, but typically not related to the current minor move, unless I am looking for a W4 range. Powder Blue is for external fibs. Bluish White is for W1/WA displacements. Fib retracements sometimes get colored green when they are possible confirmation points. Purple (not shown) is reserved for W1-3 from W4. Grey lines are for reference but mean little. I think I have about 10 color combinations for fibs, but can't recall without pulling them up.

The point is, even though I will NEVER be able to say where the market will go, I can have a very good understanding of where it IS. By basing my beliefs on that knowledge it removes a lot of the uncertainty of when, why, where, how far, etc. And, as long as the target is greater than the stop, the rest is flexible to a certain degree. At least until it crosses the line.

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 GaryD 
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The big picture shown above on the 1440 minute. The spring winds tighter...

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 GaryD 
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I may just get my wish...

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 David_R 
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Gary,

I was just wondering where you learned/studied your fib work? Some of it sounds like Robert Minor type stuff and some of sounds like Advanced Trading Workshop. Or, none of the above. By the way, what is an LSP?

D

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 GaryD 
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David_R View Post
Gary,

I was just wondering where you learned/studied your fib work? Some of it sounds like Robert Minor type stuff and some of sounds like Advanced Trading Workshop. Or, none of the above. By the way, what is an LSP?

D

Yes, studied both. Kept Jerry's colors on the DAlt/DAltX. Overall confluence is better than no confluence. There are no magic fib numbers, there are no walls of S/R. But the idea, at least to me, is to be looking at what the majority is looking at. It is good to know when price might be a value, when profits might have hit their prime. Perception moves the markets probably more often than reality does.

LSP is Left Shoulder Pivot. RSP is a much rarer species lol.

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 GaryD 
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David_R View Post
Gary,

I was just wondering where you learned/studied your fib work? Some of it sounds like Robert Minor type stuff and some of sounds like Advanced Trading Workshop. Or, none of the above. By the way, what is an LSP?

D


If you studied ATW you may notice I inverted the math on the DALTX and the Xfibs. The reason was to use drawing "Snap Mode" in NT more efficiently. For example, 137% and 190% means little to nothing in the world of traditional fibs. The % numbers some of the fibs kick out may look like I'm in my own world, but they convert correctly.

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