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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1101 (permalink)
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PRC - Polynomial Regression Channel, many versions here on futures.io (formerly BMT). A more or less worthless indicator in my opinion, as it repaints like mad and encourages people to try to pick tops and bottoms which is bad, bad news. Just my two cents... Not meaning to step on @GaryD's toes.

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BTW, just to show my objectiveness --- I was one of the very first people to port PRC to NinjaTrader years ago. So I learned the lesson the hard way.

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Big Mike View Post
PRC - Polynomial Regression Channel, many versions here on futures.io (formerly BMT). A more or less worthless indicator in my opinion, as it repaints like mad and encourages people to try to pick tops and bottoms which is bad, bad news. Just my two cents... Not meaning to step on @GaryD's toes.

Mike

I have had several people ask about the PRC indicator. It really does nothing for me technically. The indicators I pay attention to are on a 6 range chart, but I keep the PRC on a 9 range just because I like the visual. It gives a sort of reference of distance, it cureves in the direction of the market. On the chart the PRC is on, the real substance of the information to me is the oscillator at the bottom. The PRC moves, unlike a donchian channel which stays where it is drawn, so be careful using it for anything other than a pretty frame.

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greenr View Post
Just a few questions, what is the indicator you are using here?

It's Polynomial Regression Channel, or PRC. I just use it visually, it does not mean much.


greenr View Post
Are all the trades on your jounal on a live account?

Most are live. I usually say if they are not.


greenr View Post
whats your reasons for moving over to 6B

To grow as a trader. I saw a pattern that I like on a daily and decided to follow it for awhile.

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puma View Post
TY GaryD for your volatility research.
Gives good insights.

Did you differentiate time of day too ?
(Might not be necessary with the current high volatility in markets, though)

No, I don't really care about time of day for average swing length. It is more a look at the nature of the market itself, it's personality. I don't like backtesting to develop any hard rules, I don't really believe in that. The markets are organic and can do anything at any time. I thought the study of swing length was very revealing though.

What I did get out of it; What expectations should I have? If I am going for 200 ticks, what will that feel like? How much should I expect to give up along the way? When does the other side typically feel it has gone far enough before they are interested in stepping in? When should I be comfortable stepping in? When should I plan to step out?

 
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Last edited by GaryD; January 5th, 2012 at 01:48 AM. Reason: 2ND CHART
 
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I seem to like a 7 range better than the 4 range, probably related to the T3 periods. This is opposite of what I thought based on pure range volatility, but 4 just seemed too fluttery.

Lower volume in 6B is a strain to perceive volume significance, but it almost made this morning's selling stand out stronger. It was absolutely obvious within seconds, or less, that momentary selling overwhelmed supply. Similar to the reversal in direction of a ball meeting the bat.


Last edited by GaryD; January 5th, 2012 at 02:18 AM. Reason: typos
 
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Tracking a pattern on a daily chart can make intraday moves seem gigantic, but 6B is still undecided in the larger timeframe symmetrical triangle, and on the smaller timeframe has approached the 618 retracement and the breakout from the gap open.

 
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On the 11th floor with a full wall of windows looking out over the Atlantic, and more interested in watching my laptop screen...

 
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Structure

To anyone who may read this, my recent posts on the pursuit of a trade in the British Pound may seem to lack reason. But what is going on here is that i have never really traded the 6B, but saw an interesting daily chart pattern, and decided to expand my knowledge and experience.

The post above I initially only typed "Structure" as a note to myself. What I said means to me that this is an area of significant structure, the 618 retracement of the recent move up, and the breakout pivot from the prior move. Also, "sturucture" refers to the wave measurements that are beginning to become available after the past two day's motion. Not only did price pause at the tow significant points stated already, but this area is a minor exhaustion fib, an alternate projection of potential W1/WA, and external fib of potential W2/WB. So, all the lines coming together in the same area as other potential confirming factors gives me more information to process decisions with, aka "structure.

The red and magenta lines are approximate areas for a W4, if this is a downside continuation, and if the wave structure manifests on this timeframe. All of the lime green lines above this area are varying degrees of long confirmation. Some are minor trendlines, some major trendlines, some are areas of believed stop loss placement from short traders who are obviously in this market.

I will eventually execute another trade here in the 6B, but I am just letting the market make it's case first.


Last edited by GaryD; January 5th, 2012 at 03:33 PM.

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