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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #1081 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Back to desk, NT is closed, have not even looked at markets yet.

Net for the day;

2 trades in the British Pound / 6B

+1
+78
= net 79 ticks

Good day, I had a plan for what I wanted to see in this market for a few days now, and the overnight push up gave me the confirmation I was needing. Of the 8 markets I am watching, I was actually most drawn to Corn a couple days ago, but not sure I like the idea of potential limit up/limit down (I don't even know what that experience would be like), so the next favorite pattern was in 6B. Somewhat weird to have traded a $6.50 instrument. Such a great move for so little net, but the losses would be relative if I continue to trade 6B.

I believe I have to go to Miami tomorrow, may be out the rest of the week.

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  #1082 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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CRUDE OIL

On the daily chart, crude has entered into the realm of the distant left shoulder pivot.




Drilling down to an hourly, there are three well defined confluence zones overhead, the first being nearly dead center of the daily LSP region. I am going to be watching that area closely. There should still be stops above the local major top (red arrow), but stopping volume that comes in after any blown stop action would be something to take notice of.



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  #1083 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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  #1084 (permalink)
 puma 
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GaryD View Post
As I am preparing for 2012 trading, I've been doing quite a lot of homework over the past couple weeks. I've nearly finished another two trading books, sorted through and rebuilt my charts from scratch, done some backtesting, done chart analysis on a lot of different markets, reviewed average swing sizes... (I have also been preparing physically for the new trading year; added to my regimen of health supplements, been doing cleansing teas and herbal formulas this week, increased my workout intensity, yoga is kicking my butt.)

Since I am anticipating expanding my instrument range, I have been doing some studies on daily volume and volatility of various markets, seeing if I can standardize the range charts I am familiar with to work similarly in alternate markets. I am uploading a few of the study documents that were created recently, thinking someone else might find the results interesting. Or maybe I will come back to this later. I save so many trading files over a year's time (currently 185,929 files in 1,395 folders under the main folder "Trading" ) it might be nice to have this journal to help reference what I was thinking at the time I made them.

Attached are;

1) "Crude vs Multiple Instruments" - This study was an export of various ATR settings, plus volume, to get a feel for how I might apply the range charts I typically use to other markets. While I was there, I also looked at the daily equity volatility. CL is the standard reference, and all comparisons are to that instrument.

2) "Tick Value - All Instruments" - Can't get more self-explanatory than that. Easy export from the NT Instrument manager, but still was interesting to see in dollars.

3) "CL 6 range swing length 4-11 through 12-11" - This was a continuation of a study I have done in the past, and just did on roughly 30 days data earlier this week, but takes in a much larger data sampling than I have ever done. The swing lengths were calculated using PriceActionSwing (a brilliant piece of work by @ dorschden, and I doubt I would have ever gotten as far on this study without it.) BTW, this covers a total of 10,493 "swings", a decently large sample data.

Good Trading!

TY GaryD for your volatility research.
Gives good insights.

Did you differentiate time of day too ?
(Might not be necessary with the current high volatility in markets, though)

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  #1085 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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pre open 01-04-2012

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  #1086 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Still tracking the 6B, price has retraced to an area of possible LSP support. The area also showed buyer interest around the week of 12/6/11. If this zone holds it could set up an inverted H&S. Then. a breakout above the top of the symmetrical triangle could provide enough conviction for buyers to push to complete the pattern.

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  #1087 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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6B is not a market I am familiar with, but I liked the chart pattern on a daily. I am tweaking a range chart, but not completely happy with it yet. The current view is a 4-range and the chart I use for 6 range CL. 6B seems to follow a tighter "flutter", and I have added an EMA price envelope to help figure out the difference in movement so I can later adjust the T3s and DCs.

For now I am actually watching a 10min/15min chart for trade entry.

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  #1088 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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6B found support and quickly reversed around the LSP area (two yellow horizontal lines) in the 15 minute chart above. Minor resistence should be the two blue/gray lines. I would like to either see a breakout above the blue/gray zone, or a minor double bottom in the yellow zone, but am currently interested in a long based on the initial reaction around the LSP.

Yesterday morning's pre-open volume spike tried to push 6B down, I may wait until 9:30am EST passes before taking a position, or may wait for the 10am EST Factory Orders volume spike.

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  #1089 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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6B also shows an oversold condition on the 93 RSI (yellow/cyan oscillator in the right lower corner of the left monitor). Again, not sure of the crossover between CL and 6B, so readin a lot of caution into interpretation, but this is what I would want things to look like if I actually knew anything about 6B.

I'm expanding my markets in 2012 and this was the first thing that caught my interest. By the end of the year I expect to be relatively fluent in 8 markets.

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  #1090 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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The possible minor H&S right shoulder could also form further down into the 382 retracement area around 1.5543

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