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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #1051 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
Market Wizard
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ACD in action- end of Oil pit Close. It's tough to trade CL with indicators, @ 99.84, every indicator was bullish (lol). Late day A up are very RARE. If CL had broken above 99.90 on VOLUME, I would have tried long on pullbacks.

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  #1052 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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The chart below includes the swing length by tick printed in gold at the high and low pivots (one of many features of the very detailed indicator "PriceActionSwing" by @dorschden).





For the month of December, on a 6-range CL 02/11 chart, I wanted to see the average swing length to help me determine the correct standard target going into the new year. Keep in mind these numbers assume you catch the extreme tick on the opposite side of the swing, not likely, but it is useful in understanding the motion of the market you choose to trade.

Summary of what I found useful;

Average swing length = 72 ticks
Odds of a swing exceeding 30 ticks = 97.1%
Odds of a swing exceeding 50 ticks = 69.5%
Odds of a swing exceeding 80 ticks = 29.9% (less than half the odds of reaching 50)
Odds of exceeding 100 ticks = 15.8% (roughly half the odds of reaching 80)

I have done this data analysis before, but not for a long time. But, it looks like the results are basically the same as before. Those numbers are something I give very strong consideration in determining a normal profit expectancy, and a minimum emergency stop loss.

The full results are posted as a PDF.

Good trading to all in 2012!!! Stay Safe!!!

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 GaryD 
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The Euro has reached an interesting area of possible key support.

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  #1054 (permalink)
 josh 
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That hugely psychological 1.3000 level was rejected though on Friday... I know it's a small deal compared to the big picture you've shown...

 
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  #1055 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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HAPPY NEW YEAR and MAY WE ALL FIND HAPPINESS IN OUR TRADING AND LIFE in 2012.

Most important book in my trading career. As i go over my notes from January2011 - December 2011, I can see why Mark Fisher book " The logical Trader" is the most important book for my style of trading. It's not for everyone as the method needs to fit one personality in the end.

And for understanding Market Structure, Market Participants, Auction Market, Mr. Jim Dalton book " Markets in Profile" is the ONE for me.

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  #1056 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Markets in Profile. I never get tired of listening to Mr. Jim Dalton webinars. I was confused when I first heard from Jim Dalton during one of his presentations that he is not a Market Profile Trader ( about a year ago).

I was like , I have spent 200 hours reading his book, articles, listening to webinars etc.. and now after all this he is talking about that he is not a market profile trader? I gave up on using Market Profile to trade CL.

After a year of using Mark Fisher ACD method to day trade CL and using concepts of Mr. Dalton to get a handle on market structure etc..I finally understand what he meant when he said " He is not a Market Profile" trader.

In summary, I would not have been able to trade successfully solely based on Mark Fisher book. For me, Jim Dalton book gave macro picture and mark Fisher book gave " EXECUTION" of macro picture. It is just not possible to cover everything in one book.

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  #1057 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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The fragrance remains on the hand that gives the rose - Mahatma Gandhi

Thanks Gary for sharing your knowledge.

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  #1058 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Following is an example , how Mr. Steidlmayer expanded my ACD.

" Once the market completes its growth phase and becomes static, a third stage occurs which makes the market most efficient. A price that best serves all participants is located and utilized. Essentially, the market is heavily influenced by the first two stages, while the third stage exerts a latent influence through time. Price handicaps the market in the same way weight handicaps a racehorse- ultimately, both are slowed as a result.

In terms of distribution, market movement would be contained by a CENTRAL PRICE where distribution and development are proportionally related to the static range of the distribution".

I used to read paragraphs like above again and again but could not get a handle on my LOVE- CL (lol). And finally, I read Mark Fisher and CL being down $8 in 3 days and then up $12 in next 6 days started to make sense and how to EXECUTE it.

Once, I got through initial phase of ACD success, there were days when i needed more than ACD. That's when my earlier readings of market profile, Mr. Vic Sperandeo, Market Wizards books etc.. started to help.


Point being, if i have to do it again, I will first read a book which helps with EXECUTION ( for me it is MF book) and then read all the other wonderful books.

I started with Market Wizard and about 100 other wonderful books but all of them had little to show in terms of EXECUTION. At first stage of my development I needed a book from a master trader like Mark Fisher.


Note: I do not want to start a discussion as to which book is better etc.. Just sharing my thoughts for new traders.

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  #1059 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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josh View Post
That hugely psychological 1.3000 level was rejected though on Friday... I know it's a small deal compared to the big picture you've shown...




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 GaryD 
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