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Upwind Trading Journal
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Upwind Trading Journal

  #31 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Some thoughts about oil and OIH and opec oil money. I had been trying out a trading idea about selling options on futures. Just mentally finding a option price quote on selling a call on /CL way far in the money for 2 months as suggested by the thread on selling options on futures and some of the ideas of Liberty Trading Associates. I didn't really demo it, just wrote it down on a piece of paper and kept it in mind. I had also put on a position on OIH in middle of Oct on my TOS paper account as recorded in the journal.

If you all recall during the middle of October sometime, oil had a sudden drop. On that day, the pundits on CNBC and those they interviewed were calling a big oil drop, down to the 60's. or even lower. On that sell call, it was of course a severe unrealized drawdown of -8k or more. On my OIH option spread I had to adjust it to the "left" creating a double calendar from a single. Then eventually it stabilized. I had originally got into the position thinking oil would not go below 70. Also, my take was that oil would still stay stable around 80 to 100 until the end of the year. On that day, while all the pundits screaming oil down to 60! , I recall seeing a photo of a completely gold plated car owned by some saudi arabian. Dubai International had also funded most of City Center in Las Vegas. And a couple of years ago, it was reported a privately owned newly minted Airbus A340, a four engine transoceanic jetliner costing upwards of 300 million dollars was run into the wall, because the saudi family who bought the plane wanted to joyride it themselves. One of them started the plane up and started taxing but accidently got the plane into a preconfigured thrust mode and didn't know how to disengage it., so the plane crashed into one of the airport's support walls. Fortunately just the front part of the fuselage was crumpled and damaged and it wasn't going off in takeoff speed so no one died. And I recall watching midframe (737 size type) jetliners land at Burbank airport and seeing a private Airbus 319 or 320 type plane ($50 to $65 million) parked with arabic lettering and registry markings. Why did I think it was private? It was heavily paint modified with few windows. It couldn't have been a regional cargo carrier. Maintenance? Most U.S. airlines now outsource 50% of more maintenance to South America, other countries, or outsourced maintenance centers staffed with foreign technicians but situated on U.S. soil. Surrounding this area is a poor rundown city with most businesses , billboard ads, and retail signs in Spanish. And this plane I thought had to be one of the most expensive private vehicles within a radius of 20 miles until you get to LAX or maybe private jets at Van Nuys.

So I thought to myself, "there's no way these rich .01% high flyers of the world are going to let oil drop that low. It's their annual golden bread and butter" So I just waited on my positions. And now as we heard Emirates has ordered a fleet of 50 Boing triple 7's for a total of 18 billion making it the largest single purchase of jetliners ever. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/airbus-draws-with-boeing-at-dubai-show-dominated-by-777-tirades.html And today oil has hit 105 again as they squeeze the valve and jack up the price again for income from the world.

The sell call on oil expires this week at max profit. And I also had exited my OIH position two days ago with a nice profit.


Last edited by Cloudy; November 16th, 2011 at 10:25 PM.
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  #32 (permalink)
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Cloudy View Post
So I thought to myself, "there's no way these rich .01% high flyers of the world are going to let oil drop that low.

For a contrarian view, you might check out the webinar and some of his youtube videos:

https://futures.io/elite-automated-trading/13631-webinar-m3-analytics-hedge-fund-systems-trading.html

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

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  #33 (permalink)
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Thanks Big Mike. Good info to learn from a hedge fund manager. Glad I can see the webinars now as an elite member


Added positions today:
EWY double cal
IWM double cal
GLD double cal, but did not get filled on other calendar, will have to try tomorrow.

RUT still in play.

Will see how the holiday season plays out, hopefully VIX stays above 25 but not too much sea-sawing, just enough to get those option prices stable and up. Internet pundits saying the big big crash will be next year.

Attached Thumbnails
Upwind Trading Journal-ewy_112211.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-iwm_112111.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-gld_111211.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-todaytot.jpg  

Last edited by Cloudy; November 22nd, 2011 at 10:16 PM.
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  #34 (permalink)
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Ok, time to post a losing week. Just for my journal. I'm sure the Dow +490 was good news for the world, and it's all good if the economy really gets better. The VIX didn't collapse too much, still at 27.

So my challenge again is to manage the hopefully temporary drawdowns of my delta-neutral positions during big moves in the market and turn them into winners.

RUT was a winner as it was a BWB (broken wing butterfly to the delta-positive side). sold it for +3240 since beginning of trade which was helped greatly by the positive push of the market.

Drawdowns:
EWY -1985 , adjusted with another calendar this morning
IWM -775 , "
GLD -3247 , "

GLD, maybe I should have sold it for a smaller loss yesterday, but I kept it and adjusted it. Maybe I'm too greedy here and not "stopping" out of it.

If the market keeps pushing upwards with an average of Dow +300 every day, then my positions would surely get killed, and I should look to minimize losses. If the market fluctuates instead my positions may still have a chance to be profitable.

change since Nov. 11th: -1716
Journal total: + 25779

Attached Thumbnails
Upwind Trading Journal-ewy_113011.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-iwm_113011.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-gld_113011.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-rut_113011.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-posstat_113011.jpg  
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  #35 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, TOS
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change since Nov. 30th: -27.00
Journal total: +25752

Had a much bigger drawdown yesterday and earlier today. At the end of the day, positions look like they still have a chance by expiration week barring more +400 moves in the dow. Hopefully my EWY and GLD positions will have their p/l in the positive so I can get rid of the low strike calendars and maybe take some off the other calendars to restore more buying power.

All Adjusted:
EWY - 3159
GLD -2090
IWM +390 , took half off some of the calendars and also got rid of the lowest strike calendar
I just added more calendars to EWY and GLD. Unfortunately, my buying power is now down to 15%. If a massive move in the market occurs, my positions may be put into a margin call. The vegas were too high for some of the calendars for EWY and GLD; I didn't watch them enough as I should have when placing extra adjusting calendars.
So next time I may start off with smaller positions, or don't have as many positions to adjust keeping available account left > 50% at all times.

Overall portfolio p/l -8k, but profit boundaries are within the one standard deviation area... ("portfolio_120511.jpg")

I also did some daytrading on this TOS simu account: Repeated from my post in the elite forum: (https://futures.io/elite-circle/3506-elusive-price-action-how-trade-133.html#post174375)
Using just pivot points, bollinger band bounces, and Brooks Price Action.

-----------------------------------------------------
Here's a screencap of the ES about 25 minutes ago illustrating the HH overshoot and two legs reverse. And then a tiny breakout-pullback of the new downtrend. One can check later today how Al commented on the ES in his daily update and see if his analysis was similar..
(see attached "es_120511.jpg" )

3:45pm est after market. I decided to go ahead and take more screenshots as the day progressed today to show this set of examples of more Brooks Price Action along with use of bollinger bands, a couple of MAs, and pivot point levels. However bpa was the primary entry critera as I didn't really look at the MA's and did not use oscillators today.

In this screenshot, price made another wedge. Looking for confirmation of a breakdown, or if it failed then a continued breakout long:
( "es_120511_2.jpg")

ES broke down and made two small legs similar to the wedge before it. I took a short scalp here. (I had made a couple scalp wins earlier at the beginning of the session.)
( "es_120511_3.jpg")

Waited to see if it would stay in the trading range. Waited for a H2 which never happened. Instead it failed and with sudden news, a big spike down.
("es_120511_4.jpg")

In the last hour of the NYSE session. Price seemed to form what Al calls a "spike and channel". I went short for a scalp even though I probably should have held for 2pts. Price also bounced down from the R1 pivot point level. It went further for two legs. And now at the 8mins before the end of today's session, price has dropped down to the main Pivot level and currently is retracing up a little.
("es_120511_5.jpg")

So one can see how BPA(Brooks Price Action) can work with a few indicators and some s/r levels. Along with PA, one could still use oscillators and look for divergences and other methods, but PA can provide a helpful non-lagging rational for what price is doing despite the indicators. I would suggest the best way to get familiar with BPA is to read Al Brook's books. The new first book of the three set is out. The 2nd will be out the beginning of Jan. next year. www.brookspriceaction.com ; Also if one has time, reading the original book works since Al repeats many of his concepts over and over again for most every chart example throughout the book.

Attached Thumbnails
Upwind Trading Journal-ewy_120511.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-gld_120511.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-iwm_120511.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-statement_120511.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-es_120511.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-es_120511_2.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-es_120511_3.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-es_120511_4.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-es_120511_5.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-statement_es_120511.jpg  

Upwind Trading Journal-portfolio_120511.jpg  

Last edited by Cloudy; December 6th, 2011 at 02:14 AM.
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  #36 (permalink)
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Posts: 2,027 since Jul 2011
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Since last post, Dec. 5th, : +3494
Journal total: +29244

EWY p/l curve getting close to +
GLD , same thing, I have way too may calendars on it. (about 5 mashed together) but waiting until p/l + before I take the massive 161 strike calendar off, or maybe I won't and see what happens. Hopefully won't shoot up before next wednesday.
IWM, looking good, in +, and boundaries close to std dev edges. (in "iwm_chart_120811.jpg" one can see the finish line getting closer and price within the tracks with hopefully no sudden big moves before then.)

Overall portfolio graph same with boundaries close to the standard deviation edges. Since I had sold RUT earlier for +3240 last week, my overall this month with the new positions is positive. Now with IWM, a Russell 2000 index fund, GLD, a gold index fund, and EWY, a S.Korean index fund. How's that for a "diverse portfolio"?

Overall hopefully no more big spike movements until close to expiration. Assuming the big +500 move was a spike and the rest of thes 2 weeks is the "channel" of the market. (i.e. Al Brooks "spike and channel(slow))

Attached Thumbnails
Upwind Trading Journal-ewy_120811.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-gld_120811.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-iwm_120811.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-portf_120811.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-iwm_chart_120811.jpg  
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  #37 (permalink)
Elite Member
desert CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, TOS
Broker/Data: AMP/wCQG, TDA
Favorite Futures: CL,YM
 
Posts: 2,027 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,211 given, 1,551 received

Since last post , Dec. 8th, +7254
Journal total: +36498

Adjusted: EWY
Same: GLD, IWM

6e, +675 : using indicators(modified): ESFX's CCI and GW_TriDiff from futures.io (formerly BMT) and BetterVolume3(Emini Trading | Emini Day Trading | Emini Trading System) indicator for TOS.
Used Brooks Price Action to help with confirmation and making decisions on entries and analyzing ensuing candles' behavior.

Going into expiration week again. Too much loss of temporary profit due to bad vega (especially on EWY) and roller coaster market so didn't want to sell earlier.

Attached Thumbnails
Upwind Trading Journal-portf_120911.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-6e_120911.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-ewy_120911.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-gld_120911.jpg   Upwind Trading Journal-iwm_120911.jpg  

Last edited by Cloudy; December 10th, 2011 at 07:31 PM.
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  #38 (permalink)
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Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,238 since Jun 2009
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Nice work.

Sorry if I missed it, but when do you plan to take the strategy live?

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #39 (permalink)
Elite Member
desert CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, TOS
Broker/Data: AMP/wCQG, TDA
Favorite Futures: CL,YM
 
Posts: 2,027 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,211 given, 1,551 received

Thanks Big Mike. Your site has helped my trading so much in the last six months. The sharing by other traders, sense of mutual support, and quality postings is phenomenal. I appreciate the moderation work you do in making this site safer and untarnished from spammers, trolls, and fake reviewers.

As for going live trading options this way. Unfortunately it's going to be a while. All my live funds for trading are in my futures daytrading account with a different broker which I haven't decided to post in my journal. One could use a smaller amount of options contracts I suppose, but TOS needs at least 20k to allow full freedom of order fills throughout a day. I also feel I need more practice trading this way. Maybe someday. Thanks.


Last edited by Cloudy; December 10th, 2011 at 08:03 PM.
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  #40 (permalink)
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Killed again. With the last two days of adverse market movement and gold collapsing, my positions were ruined. I had taken a few calendar outliers at -3k loss on Monday. So had less positions overall.

since Dec. 10th: -8016
journal total: +28498

What I could have done:
I could have taken profits early like last week and not go for a home run on expiration week. the market didn't behave as one hoped , as usual. Plus my positions were already highly vulnerable(high gamma) and shored up from too many adjustments. - Started out with smaller contracts instead of big double calendars. Gotten rid of outlying calendars earlier. Easier to see in hindsight.

summary: market moved out of the 1 standard deviation violently. these days it's more common than the exception. There is still very high risk with adjusted calendars. A move far more than one standard deviation (black swan day) can decimate an account 100% within a day. But I guess that's the risk of trading. No matter the option strategy, adverse black swan moves will kill any position.

Attached Thumbnails
Upwind Trading Journal-portf_121311.jpg  

Last edited by Cloudy; December 13th, 2011 at 11:51 PM.
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