Not a good day trading the 6E. I should have known how much momentum had be built up on the run down. Going long was just dumb, and not closing the position @ 1.4335 was dumb. Still not sure what I was thinking, but played today the opposite of my rules. (don't fade the trend if it has momentum) Having my first trade blown right threw should have told me to wait to get short at the retest of the trend line. There was alot of strength at the 1.4310's...but I guess it was probably taders covering there shorts.
The following 3 users say Thank You to Presto for this post:
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I took Monday off and decided to finish up the month on the sim. I need to make sure I don't empty my account! I was looking over my track record and realized the last time I was up for two weeks, it took one day to erase it.
I have been sticking to my guidelines but I have realized that I don't have a plan. I think I will try to finish out the month and then try to lay down some concrete rules.
One trade today, waited...waited and waited. Delta divergences setup on the 6E with the brake of the trend line, below the 20ma. It didn't feel good, but it worked.
Side note...I am reading Al Brooks bar by bar, and its confusing me a bit. Most of what I know about price action is just from watching charts.
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Thanks Lornz, I thought about what you said, and I think I'm just going to spend the rest of the week just watching and taking notes. I will come up with a draft of solid rules, I would like to backtest but I am not sure how to quantify what I am seeing...watching w/notes no trading should help me quantify. Would you recommend that I try to backtest? or just come up with concrete rules to trade from and sim it for a month?
My money management is based upon 1.5%-2.0% of my account with a risk/reward of 3:1...I have in the past found myself trading 1:1
I took a look at ninja, My percentage profitable is @ 60% for the month with 1.5:1 R/R
With that said I think my first Rule is
#1 Don't trade without at least a 3:1 R/R
The following user says Thank You to Presto for this post:
I did not backtest before I started, but I had been following the market for over a year. I have backtested other strategies over the years, but it's hard to quantify price action. It's more about getting a "feel" for the market you're trading...
With regard to R/R, you have to look at the winning rate and trade frequency, as well. I would advise you not to have a set number in advance. Your focus should be on mapping the market, just trying to find trading opportunities. Thenyou have to find entries and exits with good R/R.
This is a process, and if one tries to rush it, it's easy to blow up...
The following user says Thank You to Lornz for this post:
I am going to focus on the 6E Swing Trade Starting on the Open of the Globex.
On Tuesday I observed a large commercial distribution occurring via cumulative delta, the pull back has ended and the scale is teetering on a continuation of the down trend. I am looking to get short on the rejection of value area low. One of my rules is to not take any trades in the value area unless the instrument is range bound. I will enter the trade with a basic A,B,C type pattern and set my stop accordingly. I have found potential targets that offer a good R/R but I am looking for a large move so patience will be tested "don't take quick profits"
Looking at the 60min for bounce off the blue trend line, other time frame sellers made a nice trend candle on the 60min. Would like to see the trend continue on the retest of the 5min lower trend line.
I am in the process of learning MP... I think I would call today a trend day?
Last edited by Presto; June 15th, 2011 at 01:38 PM.
It is looking like an accumulation is starting to take place and I am looking at closing the position @1.4120 if it gets back there. I may be stoped out @1.4169 I would expect price to test the 4120 again before getting a pullback. I need to see some good momentum on the retest of 4120 to stay in the position.
I have been watch price action on the 5min and see a large inventory to clear @ 1.4120 so I'm out....Price may continues down., but what I see is the smart money Accumulating/covering or whatever you want to call it. Cumulative delta has stayed flat and a 300point move is bound to see a pullback of some significance...