i dont wanna sound silly... but can you explain this to me like i am 6 years old... honestly i am a little noobish to trading and still got to learn a lot, so this is no offence... but reading your point 5 this doesnt make a lot of sense to me in the first place... looking for uncertainty instead of the obvious is like choosing to ride a rollercoaster which hasnt been maintained for some time above a rollercoaster which is in good shape. as far is i understand technical analysis it is mostly about seeking what everybody else is looking for and get on that ride.
you dont wanna go long, when everyone is short. even if you and suddenly direction changes you still be able to get in cheaper than in the first place...
or did i get your post wrong? if so, sry for that...
Last edited by ollivermilton; December 2nd, 2011 at 09:26 AM.
Thank you for your post. You are not the first one who said it's very small time frames. I'm just being stupid and don't listen to someone who already knows what he's doing. To be honest I had more success trading 250T without indicators. All I was looking for was PA in areas of DP in direction of the trend. Then I started to watch range charts and my TFs got smaller and smaller.
I've never heard about Horst selling anything. I know he offers tutoring now, but he doesn't sell the system. You may talk about Henry that was selling NFT. Horst was his student. That doesn't really matter. I'm more interested in learning how to get my trading better!!! LOL
Of course it doesn't make sense to you, because its a subjective term. Trading is not a science. There are no absolutes, everything that works today will fail tomorrow. This is how I look at PA. What is a trend, on what chart and what time frame, is it around news, how does market liquidity affect a so-called trend?
You are taking it too literally, because in asking that question you want certain firm rules that will make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside and essentially comfortable when you click on a trade. Let me burst that bubble - my best trades are the ones where I was most queasy of things going wrong. Your definition of TA maybe right, but I have strict rules on when to get into a trend. If I don't then I increase risk. This begs the question, what is a trend? I have my time frames and on that I mark typical waves, I could be totally wrong, as you can look at the same chart and identify mini trends, impulsive waves and corrective waves.
The comparison to a roller-coaster is 100% wrong in this case. The roller-coaster is real, the state of repair or disrepair of a physical item is real, its tangible. The market is unknown, dealing with two of the most intangible things in the universe - fear and greed. If I can quantify in numbers, equations or mathematically un-impeachable physical ways the definition and explanation of F&G then it my trades would be the same as yours.
Let me give you an example, If I enter on the C wave of a corrective ABC to an impulsive trend and the C fails, then does that mean that the trend has also failed? IMO, No.
This does not mean that I go short when the trend is long, of course not. But it also means that when people say things like follow the trend blah blah blah, I really want to know if they can quantify with solid reasons where the trend began, where it is likely to end and how they would identify the impulsive and corrective waves within that trend (bear in mind I am not even talking about the mini waves within each I&C wave).
So while you could be short on a 5min time frame I could be long on a 15 minute time frame and we might both be right, or both be wrong.
If my post confuses you even more, it is meant to. I want you to question and quantify each assumption you make. Why is a trend, where it began, where will it end, where are the waves.....and most importantly who in the market is in pain.
My trading is not systematic, I have rules only for risk control. Otherwise all other guidelines can be fluid, bended, moved, ignored as long as I remain within my risk limits. My edge is sheer screen time and the Bayesian probability.
Which should tell you that it is as far removed from empirical trueness as possible, and therefore bounded by nothing.
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thanks man for your response...
i see where you getting.... my rollercoaster example still isnt that bad but i think i just put it the wrong way...
i meant the outcome - as in the market - is also unforseen.... you may can ride for like 10 times or even 20 till it falls apart but you never know when... but anyway... it doesnt matter... i got your point...
you dont need to burst my bubble... this has already happend... i still got the ringing in my ear...
Weird as I can see a good set-up on 3 min around 10:09 nice abc down.
TF was a different story I went long (9:43) at 744 area sold 746.7 then sold before the 10:00 news 746.7 area and took profits at 744.8 (market order) as I didn't expected it would go down so quickly I just heard filled on my sell order then seconds later it was 2 points down so I clicked the close button, that was it for the day goal achieved.
I know that I have to stick with one method and make it work. I'm still jumping around and I'm not sure when I'm gonna stop. Haha...
I guess reason for that is my experience with the very first method I started with. I spent a year and my first account on it without looking anywhere else and realized that it's not gonna work. I didn't read about any other methods, didn't try any other software. I didn't even want to. I thought that any method can work if you invest enough time. It was very hard for me to move somewhere else and try something new. Then it became easier and easier. Haha...
I know that a lot of people would say that one year is nothing and it took a lot of traders a few years to start making money. But I can tell that that vendor has changed his strategy also after a while.
Now I just don't have any trust to any system or method. I don't trust any custom indicators either. After I stepped over the first vendor I cannot stop.
I have learned a lot after that, but I don't know how to get everything together and stop looking for something new.
All profitable traders don't really care about people like me. They make money and enjoy their life. Who wants to spend their time to teach someone. I deal with a lot of people at my work and I wish my income wouldn't depend on others. That's why I'm so interested in trading. I wanna be social when I want to and not because I have to. If you start teaching you have deal with all kind of people and you cannot choose them. Some of them would understand and be very easy, but others can spit in your face and tell that it doesn't work just because they don't know what they are doing. Who wants that?
Maybe I'm wrong and some of those vendors teach people because they are bored with their life. The way I see it that they are not so great with trading and second income from selling system or chart room would average their days. I feel like I get lost somewhere in between. I'm cannot see which method works and which one is just advertised better.
When I try something I try to change it to make it my own and that is not the best idea either. I think you can start changing stuff when you know that you can make $$$ either way.
That MA's method cory posted in PW journal seems very nice also. My mind is still all over the place. It's so much information around and it's hard to filter.
Wow. That was a lot of talking from me. I guess it's compensation for not posting so long.
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