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Vovan348 Day Trading TF with NFT setup
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Vovan348 Day Trading TF with NFT setup

  #181 (permalink)
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bluemele View Post
Mike,

Doesn't MFE only calculate 'while you are in the trade'? So if it pulls back, you move your stop and it knocks you out, it only calculates that portion. So for the way I trade it would be useful maybe for scaling point, but a challenge maybe since the whole move would have to be manually evaluated right?

MFE is maximum favorable excursion. It represents the furthest positive gain while the trade is open. The pullback has nothing to do with anything -- once a trade is live, the MFE is the best exit possible while that trade was live until the trade is closed.

I used to keep an Excel spreadsheet where I measured the theoretical MFE (an absolute best case, to the tick, possibility of a setup). That can be helpful too, but in this case I'd suggest just starting with turning on the MFE column and paying a lot of attention to your actual exits and how "efficient" they are compared with the MFE.

Mike

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  #182 (permalink)
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+4.1 points

Alright! Now I'm starting all over again.
I just want to break myself and get back to where I started. It's hard like quit smoking, or using drugs. Bluemele told me a while ago that I was doing much better with NFT setup and this is where I'm going back again. No more reading about other methods or strategies. I'm not going anywhere else and I'm not trying anything else until I master it. This something that I liked before and I still like. I did have a headache from all those MACDs before, but that was just because I was reading them wrong. I was looking at them all the time and I was trying to get every pivot with divergence or separation. I think the right way to do it is create bias and then watch when it gets to the area and get it when MACDs are looking in your favor. I know it's gonna take me a while to get used to it again. But I don't mind to invest as much time as it takes to master it.

Today my bias was long because looking at 4181 I got my fibs from 8/22 and we got down to 89% and had a very nice divergence. That tells me that more likely we are gonna be in uptrend at least in the morning.
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When I started trading for some reason I was fighting my bias and I took two short trades because 144 MACD wasn't so strong to the upside and I had fib lines from morning high to the low. So all I was watching was an area for reversal instead of continuation. After my first 2 trades and -2.2 points (I have to get back to getting in on the edge) I realized that I'm on the wrong page and I should get it right. I took one long and lost 8 ticks and then I took my last chance trade and got out with 7.1 points. I knew that It's gonna go higher, but I got out at 100% and that was just enough for me.
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I have so much work to do now to get myself on the rail.

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  #183 (permalink)
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Do whatever you feel is right for you! I am happy to see you re-motivated.

You did good today! Watch my video and see if you think it still looks short where you were shorting. haha...

I have come to the conclusion that bias is more important than anything. 90% of my big wins come when I pick the right main direction. 90% of my big losses come when I am wrong.

If you focus on picking the property mid/long term direction and then hitting the entries/pullbacks/fibs or whatever, then that is the secret sauce.

Good work today! 7.1 is nice! You see how those longer term MACDBB's will tell you to stay into the trade longer. I got out a bit early, as I am sick today, but had I had multiple contracts I would have scaled and stayed in for at least a few more points.

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  #184 (permalink)
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Thanks Blue!

It feels little bit different when I got back to NFT. I didn't go back because you said that. Don't get me wrong. I got back because it feels like right thing to do. I just have to change the way I'm thinking, and learn all over again. I think this time I know little bit more and I think that's gonna help me to go further this time and I think that now I'm gonna see improvement.

You did a great job today and I see you getting better and better every day now. I hope to see you trading live and make $$$ very soon!!!


Last edited by vovan348; September 12th, 2011 at 03:14 PM.
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vovan348 View Post
Thanks Blue!

It feels little bit different when I got back to NFT. I didn't go back because you said that. Don't get me wrong. I got back because it feels like right thing to do. I just have to change the way I'm thinking, and learn all over again. I think this time I know little bit more and I think that's gonna help me to go further this time and I think that now I'm gonna see improvement.

You did a great job today and I see you getting better and better every day now. I hope to see you trading live and make $$$ very soon!!!

Great. Per your last comment, I am already making money by not trading live... hahahhahaa... Couldn't resist...

Yes, I am getting better, getting better at reading conditions and what not, but today was a beautiful day. I was reviewing my old videos from 09', 10' and boy were they terrible. I didn't have a clue but trading live.. (well, I did have a clue and my technicals were good, but I didn't know when the market conditions were not typical)

I imagine in a couple years from now I will probably say the same thing about today's trades...

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-3 points

Horrible trading today.

First thing in the morning looking at 4181 and 1597 my bias was long. Then we got that pull back to the deep before moving higher and I just blew it. I tried to go long three times and I thought that we are gonna at least retest the 50% and we did, but I couldn't manage to get the nice entry that would keep me in the trade. Then my last opportunity trade #4 I took short because I thought that we are gonna get another deep pull back and there was a nice pause at the outer band and flat 144. But I was wrong again.

Yesterday was so much cleaner than today. In the afternoon I was just watching market and it looked so nice and clean.

Here are my trades and summary.
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  #187 (permalink)
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Your 3rd trade was your best losing trade. If there is such a thing!

You sensed right that the trend was long! You were just a bit early. If you look at the final pullback it was the 100% ext. and the 76% but it didn't give a whole lot of time to decide to get in or not!

One thing mentally that I used to do is believe that it is the 'day'. Yes, occasionally there are days from hell, but what I found that other traders were doing so well on my personal 'days of hell'.

So... The issue for me was always ME and not the day and my inability to read the charts correctly. I called every single pivot today. Why was it clear for me and not you? I have no idea, but I found that would be the case whenever I would lose that Horst and others would find it 'oh so clear'.... Which would just piss me off...

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bluemele View Post
Your 3rd trade was your best losing trade. If there is such a thing!

You sensed right that the trend was long! You were just a bit early. If you look at the final pullback it was the 100% ext. and the 76% but it didn't give a whole lot of time to decide to get in or not!

One thing mentally that I used to do is believe that it is the 'day'. Yes, occasionally there are days from hell, but what I found that other traders were doing so well on my personal 'days of hell'.

So... The issue for me was always ME and not the day and my inability to read the charts correctly. I called every single pivot today. Why was it clear for me and not you? I have no idea, but I found that would be the case whenever I would lose that Horst and others would find it 'oh so clear'.... Which would just piss me off...

You are right. I was too early. I keep watching market after a break and it does look pretty good. I spotted one short entry around 10:31 and that was over 11 points runner.

I know that I do a lot of mistakes and will for a while. My mind is upside dawn right now. It's really hard for me to get back to normal (if I've ever been there ). Now I want to get feel for the market by watching market after my session for another hour or so. I'm just trying to predict next move watching fibs and MACDs (not the next swing, next move using fibs on bigger time frames). It's been pretty good for me for a couple days and if I don't think about entry I can concentrate on the movements much better. When I feel that I can do it good enough I'll work on my entries closer.

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Great point! General market direction is the most important. You had it, but your timing was just a little off. That is the story of my trading life! haha... OR should I say, WAS....

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bluemele View Post
Great point! General market direction is the most important. You had it, but your timing was just a little off. That is the story of my trading life! haha... OR should I say, WAS....

Yeah. I think you should say WAS. You are doing a great job lately!!!

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