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Ray's anti counter trend trading journal


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Ray's anti counter trend trading journal

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  #11 (permalink)
 Rayzor 
Coloado
 
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Here are my results for the day, for the most part I felt it was pretty range-bound so I used my entry charts for my entries; I still looked at the long range, but it seemed a little tight. Day #2 without going against the trend. When I say trend, I am referring to price and where it is trading in relation to the TCT Trending line from TradingCoders.com.

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  #12 (permalink)
sidney7g
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I've rewritten this a couple times trying to get it concise but its really a lot. so bear with me,

Ray, I'd say only counter trend trade when prominent support/ resistance peaks are pierced or touched. If a few peaks are clustered in a small price range pick the one furthest away to place your entry. I mean scroll back and look for the previous peaks in price even if they go as far back as days or months. Many long term investors and traders use these for places to put their stop-losses and limits. Its the overwhelming culmination of stop losses and limits that make a trend pull back at this point. Traders need a psychological sign to pull out or else trends will keep pushing till exhausted. If there is no peak often times whole numbers in price serve as a place a lot of people look to place stops and limits. I've learned to spot out exhausted trends from a variety of factors but i don't suggest this to anyone whose not studied it intensely day in and out. I've only ever been consistently successful at counter trend trading when following strict rules like these. I'd say practice it in simulation while trading normally, It will also help you on exit strategies for trend positions. Indicators are not of much use to successfully counter trades because they don't take previous peaks into consideration. Following this technique I am usually always able to scalp a few ticks. The thing is you have to grab your profits and get out, the only time i ever go negative doing this is when i try to catch more then what i can get(over 4-5 ticks and my limit isn't hit). The Cl is even more reactant to prominent peaks then what i'm use to trading the TF. usually you can get a least a good 5 cents on the cl pull back from a prominent peak. Its a little tricky if a few peaks are close in price though, Usually pick the one furthest away but sometimes an exhausted trend will react on the first one. the more exhausted a trend its more suggestible to get in at point of contact rather then pierce, but usually you want to wait a second or two to see if it busts through. Its a little difficult to do this on a tick chart because I mostly trade minute candles. Obviously dojis and long wicks are good cause to get short on a resistance peaks.

If you already know this technique I'm sorry to be redundant. I just see a lot of people on these forums who are completely obvious to this market behavior and rely only on indicator statistics. Hope this helps for who ever is reading.

take care and gl Ray


here is an example kind of

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  #13 (permalink)
 Rayzor 
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Thanks Sid, I have actually not posted for awhile because I am reworking my entire strategy. I had been going over some of my past trades and figured out that I am leaving a ton of money on the table. My big hang up is that my average trade when the market is moving is roughly 7 cents; I looked at some of my trades and was blown away by the fact that most all of my set ups yielded an average of 15 ticks. My ATM was taking me out way too soon. This would be OK except for the fact that I need at least a 12 cent stop to keep from getting shaken out. Once I get the modified strategy figured out I will post. The mega tight ATM comes from some very bad habbits that I paid so-called mentors (rooms, programs, etc.) a lot of money for. I am so used to bailing early as that is what I was taught. Facts are facts (for me anyway), I'm gonna' need to learn to stay in my trades. Stay tuned.

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Ray - I just noticed the thread - it's an excellent choice of topic. You certainly aren't the only one with this ailment.

I hope you keep this up.

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 Rayzor 
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Thanks D.T.! I was just reading you posting about that trading room outa' Lithowania or something. I agree with you that you need to do your due dilligence. You mentioned rooms that target newbs......I was one of those newbs and I managed to let myself (my fault, I did it) get sucked in multiple times to the tune of right around $30K by the time I said no more. This included rooms, software (magic software that was really good because it was expensive), and educational programs. Some of it was OK and ultimately brought me to where I am now. They all would say let your winners run, but when it came to real trades they had us bailing out at 4 - 6 ticks; with a 12 tick stop we all know what will eventually happen. I have some really bad habbits I need to break. Thanks again!

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I hear you.

My presumption is that this focus on small targets has to do with probabilities. If you put a 12 tick stop but bail at +4 - then you will see a lot more winners than losers. Thus - on the surface you appear to be very successful.

The room in question has a 5/6 tick target, 10 tick stop but when a trade runs 40 ticks they'll say "but it's up to you how you manage these trades" and go on to say how their entry nailed 40 ticks.

It does look very impressive - but we both know where it ends up.

One of the reasons your thread title intrigued me (after 3 reads to ensure I got it), is that I am often sitting there hovering over the buy button waiting for price to come down & show me signs of a short term reversal so I can go long. Quite often, I wonder to myself why I'm not short waiting for that reversal point as my target. Of course, this isn't simply a matter of catching a falling knife. To take the opposing trade is not without pitfalls - it is to become more of a momentum trader, to jump on moves already in progress, to (shock, horror) CHASE TRADES.

Still - when the 6E comes down 30 ticks to my entry point, I get in, make 10 ticks and get out, I often wonder why I'm not going after the 30 on the way down...

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sidney7g
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In relation to how I trade 10:5 tick stop/limit with the TF, I can definitely say if you were to hold up the chart next to CL that would be something like 20 cent stop/ 10 cent limit. I mean I know you capitalize on small movements but you might want to consider the recent average range of price swings. If your not capitalizing on technical movements your kind of taking the risk of random micro swings. It seems like your trying to Move out of smaller range bound trades and into Trending which isn't easy with small stops/limits on the cl. I'd say practice on Sim at entirely larger stops/limits with smaller contract positions, Use both tick chart and perhaps a 1 minute/5 minute chart for reference to larger patterns at work.

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 Rayzor 
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sidney7g View Post
In relation to how I trade 10:5 tick stop/limit with the TF, I can definitely say if you were to hold up the chart next to CL that would be something like 20 cent stop/ 10 cent limit. I mean I know you capitalize on small movements but you might want to consider the recent average range of price swings. If your not capitalizing on technical movements your kind of taking the risk of random micro swings. It seems like your trying to Move out of smaller range bound trades and into Trending which isn't easy with small stops/limits on the cl. I'd say practice on Sim at entirely larger stops/limits with smaller contract positions, Use both tick chart and perhaps a 1 minute/5 minute chart for reference to larger patterns at work.


That is exactly what I have been doing; I got sick of looking at trades that would have gone upwards of 30 cents at times only to be stopped out w/ +5 - 7 due to my AYM strategy. I have since moved to hard targets for the first contract and I use the ATM for the second. I had a bummer of a day that FORCED me to re-think what I was doing. I found an expectancy calculator, plugged in my numbers, and it was not good with the past situation. I have to face thge facts that if I am going to have any longevity in this business I MUST learn to let my winners run. My past set up was a 12 - 13 tick stop and my average winner was 6 - 7 cents. I have been doing well in the simulator and becoming more comfortable with hanging in there to either hit my planned/pre set target or the logical target.

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sidney7g
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You might also want to adjust your stops / limits to how volatile the market is, For instance earlier between 8:30 and 10:30am each one minute candle moved about 30 cents, Then after 11:12am your lucky to get 20 cents per candle. If you think about it thats a 33% difference in volatility. Consequently, you might do well with your system at the end of the day or when stuff is calm and then the next day try to use the same targets and get destroyed.

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 Rayzor 
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Posts: 129 since Sep 2010



sidney7g View Post
You might also want to adjust your stops / limits to how volatile the market is, For instance earlier between 8:30 and 10:30am each one minute candle moved about 30 cents, Then after 11:12am your lucky to get 20 cents per candle. If you think about it thats a 33% difference in volatility. Consequently, you might do well with your system at the end of the day or when stuff is calm and then the next day try to use the same targets and get destroyed.


What, me wait till the end of the day?? Never All kidding aside Sid, you must be reading my mind. When it REALLY starts hauling a#$ I am hands-off for two reasons. As you mentioned, the stop must widen to at least 20 ticks if not 30 as you mentined. Second, I enter market at the print of the "3" a lot of the time and I trie to actuall lrt it retrace a little and use the buy bid/sell ask button to get a better price. I have managed to develope a feel for the speed of the market.

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