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STF discretionary spot Forex system development journal
Started:May 10th, 2011 (07:54 PM) by bnichols Views / Replies:24,030 / 292
Last Reply:May 7th, 2013 (09:32 PM) Attachments:180

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STF discretionary spot Forex system development journal

Old August 18th, 2012, 08:06 PM   #81 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
Although upTrend is in fact private, the anaSuperTrendU11 has a public BoolSeries UpTrend defined in line 564 of the Properties section. You could have easily accessed the public BoolSeries as anaSuperTrendU11.UpTrend[0] without modifying the indicator. Please take note of the capital "U" of the public BoolSeries.

Roger the capitalization and thanks Fat Tails No excuse and not sure why I modified the indicator anymore. Having a hard time sleeping--today I feel like there's a wool blanket being dragged over my brain

ETA: Just figured out one of the reasons I missed it....I generally use underscores ahead of private variables. Ancient habit and hard to break. My wife will be the first to tell you I don't see something if I don't think it's there

ETA: After all those excuses in spite of the fact there is no excuse (and after a glass of wine or 2) should point out what matters--when I need a powerful and reliable indicator that no one has thought of yet I look up what you've done lately Pretty much stop looking if you haven't done it.

Greatest respect.


Last edited by bnichols; August 18th, 2012 at 09:16 PM.
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Old August 19th, 2012, 08:28 PM   #82 (permalink)
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Per @Fat Tails remarks, modified version of TDSuperTrend.cs is attached that will run with the original version of anaSuperTrendU11.

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Old August 20th, 2012, 10:06 AM   #83 (permalink)
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Attached is a slightly less bare bones version of TDSuperTrend (TDSuperTrendQuanity.cs) that allows for a simple stop loss and intermediate profit target. Initial values are set based on backtesting 1800 tick data between April 22, 2012 and the present (all the data that survived the last reinstallation of NT --haven't had a chance to reload the rest).

This also just posted to the NinjaTrader forum in regard to performance of the bot in response to a comment by a trader using NT's Monte Carlo simulation:

Monte Carlo Simulation - NinjaTrader Support Forum


Quoting 
Not sure how often this thread gets looked at but having just started using NT's Monte Carlo Simulation it appeared near the top of a Google search.

In any event a couple of caveats come to mind (and please correct if it looks like I'm missing something) in case the reader is not already well aware of them; namely,

1. session definition is vital to the actual performance of the strategy (bot), since the behaviour of any indicators used by the bot in back- and forward testing varies with session definition (i.e., data outside defined session hours is not used to determine indicator values). The upshot of this is there is apparently no way in NT to back- or forward test a bot intended to be run on a session that is a subset of the indicator data domain. In other words, it does not appear meaningful to test a bot with e.g. 24/5 currency futures over multiple sessions with indicators calculated from the 24/5 data domain, if the trading session is also not 24/5 (i.e., instead restricted to the overlap between European and N American markets, say). In such a case one can however forward test by turning the bot on and off manually at the start and end of each session. That said, it is not an issue if one is aware of (and perhaps depending upon) the fact that in real life the indicators (and hence the bot) will react vigorously to any price gap between start of session and end of last session.

2. the probability curve displayed is a cumulative probability, so that for indicated probabilities over 50% the probability of the associated value occurring is actually 100 minus the indicated probability. E.g., the probability of a an $84,000 cumulative profit with 96% cumulative probability occurring is 100 - 96 = 4%.

ETA: by the way, it's been my experience with bots that if there is any chance of a worst case scenario occurring, it will, seemingly often enough near the outset when the account is most vulnerable, a perception that likely stems from the fact it's game over if we blow out the account. I've learned therefore to limit quantities so that the account is able to absorb the worst case draw down and still function from the get-go.

ETA: Plan to run the strat on IB's paper account this week while manually trading the cash account (or at least planning to trade manually, since I was fiddling with the strat when the only clear channel-trade opportunities so far today occurred). I don't use NT's SIM account because I never took the time to find out how the fills compare to broker paper/cash and want an independent transaction record due to the not insignificant probability NT's accounting will decide to take another walk in the snow (due to DB corruption--guessing app conflict is causing NT to get its panties in a bunch occasionally but so far unable to say which app this time)

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Last edited by bnichols; August 20th, 2012 at 12:29 PM.
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Old August 20th, 2012, 07:25 PM   #84 (permalink)
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Nothing much to report except a couple of pedestrian trades for less than 10 pips @ 2 contracts after missing the only real setup of the day and that the bot (TDSuperTrendQuantity) managed to make a single trade on the paper account once I finally got it up and running (made about 16 pips before exiting the trade on end-of-session at 12:30 AST--see Figure). Not sure why the bot waited as long as it did to enter.

The "pedestrian trades" occurred outside my regular trading hours while experimenting with the description of ES activity at various hours of the day in @dario1's journal (first post in ES Unfair Advantage). I'm not sure how he created the list and as he notes there are a couple of gaps, but I like the idea because like all good science it lends itself to peer review and to association of probability functions with inter-session intervals usable by a bot, assuming one can suitably quantify notions like "retesting the days' highs" (shouldn't be too hard).

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Last edited by bnichols; August 20th, 2012 at 07:42 PM. Reason: typo
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Old August 22nd, 2012, 12:08 AM   #85 (permalink)
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Did not trade today--didn't sleep well enough the night before. The bot (TSSuperTrendQuantity, trading on paper) also took the day off because there were no reversals in the session, which amounts to a missed opportunity since EUR/USD moved higher all day, hence should probably give some thought to adding trend continuation at session open.

Did poke around futures.io (formerly BMT) however (reading journals mostly) and attended the TopStepTrader webinar. Nothing better than reading about the impressive things other folks are doing to put one's own progress in the proper perspective

Out of curiosity I created a plot of EUR/USD activity vs time-of-day inferred from duration of 1800 tick bars from the first of the year to the present (figure below). Even unprocessed it's possible to discern routine peaks at certain times of the day and activity associated e.g. with events. I want to do a similar study of price movement vs time-of-day to see in particular if (as it seems a lot of traders claim) there is a usable correlation between inter- and intrasession ranges & trends (e.g., to get a better idea to what extent counter-trend movements are predictable), but that's a little more involved.

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Old August 22nd, 2012, 11:26 AM   #86 (permalink)
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Excerpt from today's private journal pretty much sums it up (3 trades, hit day's loss limit, quit trading). For slaps & giggles will watch to see how the bot fares on paper for the rest of the session (it's presently long).


Quoting 
20120822

After attending TopStepTrading webinar yesterday and reviewing previous webinar from March decided to amp

up my discipline a notch, including journal keeping.

Initiated short open ended trade at 1.24542 @1.2 contracts at 9:07 AM
1. because bot TDSuperTrendQuantity was in a short paper trade
2. the setup correlated more or less with TD's approach
3. before I'd studied market sentiment but after glancing at volume profile
4. Before calculating what TDSuperTrend's initial stop meant for money management

Management commentary:


1. Stop at 1.2470 = 15.8 pips -> loss of $189.6 minus commissions, or 189.6/54720 = 0.35%
Since we're forward testing with cash assume a daily loss of 0.2%. Moved to .002*54720 + 1.24542 = 1.2463

(or 0.2%). If this trade fails that's it for the day.

2. By 9:39 TDSTQ had moved stop to 1.24674 in response to rising EUR/USD (hit MM 6/8 @ 1.24590). Since

this is still above my 0.2% daily loss target left my stop where is. Feeling of depression setting it at ~

-4 pips unrealized loss, then equanimity knowing the stop would take care of things if they get out of

hand.

3. Shortly after the last comment at 9:39 EUR/USD plunged (to +12 pips profit by 9:45) with every sign of

going lower. Depression turns to calm elation, then to worry. Moved stop to protection at +1.5 pips

(1.24515), when it looked like price was setting up a new lower value area median 1.2441, TD method

indicated downtrend.

4. Retrace peaked for the time being at @MM 3/8 at 9:52--thinking about moving stop to just above this, but

since TDSTQ stop is on the move will go with that if it gets between my entry and my stop.

5. By 10:06 price has retraced back to within 5.5 pips, 200 tick chart indicating a miniuptrend, 600 pip

chart stil indicating weak downtrend, 1800 tick chart indicating downtrend, and notice on othe brain's

back burner the part of the Lord's Prayer that begins "Lo, though I walk through the valley of the shadow

of death...." is repeating.

6: By 10:10 I noticed my entry and protective stop are sitting smack dab on the median of the mode of

today's value area--a sitting duck even if price is still polishing its shotgun (appears to have given up

on the retrace in the downtrend, heading away from me for the time being). Ordinarily I'd move the stop to

just above the last retrace high at 1.2448 but seems that would be penny wise pound foolish--why increase

the chance of getting stopped out unnecessarily, risking pennies against what could amount to significant

profit? Instead we'll wait and hope for price to break downward through previous low at 1.2431 just above

the floor pivot (another location where price could set up housekeeping--just has to lose interest in the

last value area and the scent of my stop sitting there).

7: 7 minutes before US open price appears to be consolidating between 1.2448 and 1.2435, US futures

negative meaning we can likely expect the Dow to try to recover the initial gap down in the first 30-60

minutes after open, probably correlated with upward pressure on the EUR/USD

8: At the open one eye on the Dow 1 minute chart and one eye on the EUR/USD, which is sitting at the top of

range mentioned previously, Dow as suspected aggressively trying to close the gap, EUR/USD rising but not

so rapidly.

9: Dow now collapsing at T+ 90 seconds, EUR/USD inching upward toward my stop. Hard not to move the stop

back to day's loss where TDSTQ stop now sits

10: A little relief at t+5 minutes after EUR/USD (attached to Dow by rubber band) came within 1.5 pips of

the stop but has now pulled back a little. 200 Tick chart indicators flatlining, 600 & 1800 Tick charts

suggesting beginning to resume downward trend, but still buoyant and too soon to say. Dow still showing

remarkable signs of life. Too bad. Hopefully we survive until a (downward) trend sets up. If not we'll

get stopped out and sit on our hands until the market initiators tip their hand one way or the other.

Should walk away & let market takes its course--get breakfast rather than sit here watching & working on an

ulcer.

11. at 10:43 Steeling myself to get stopped out, and stopped out for a profit after commission of $7. Gag

me with a spoon. Uptrend started on 200 tick chart, mixed signals on 600, signs of wicked retrace in a

downtrend on 1800 tick chart. EUR/USD and Dow have merrily climbed to premarket value area, entirely

closing the gap & more. So much for that new minivan.

12. 10:47 Price hits TDSTQ stop, and the bot goes long at significant S/R with all indicators pinned in

overbought area--silly bot. Still, all signs point to beginning of uptrend, so we sit at wait for a

retrace, potentialy to go long, avoiding the powerful urge to jump on the lemming train at this point.

FOMO is strong in this one. Smartass bot is up 11 pips, but it's early days. "First ones now will later

be last" is repeating in the back of my brain.

13: 10:55 watching price as Dow retreats from yesterday's close, having gorged now fat & happy. Looking

for signs it may retest the close, breakout probably necessary for EUR/USD to establish an uptrend.

14. 10:57 entry at 1.2474, just below magic number of 75, stop at 69 (5 pips) when 200 shows retrace over

and 600 confirms. Should NOT be taking setups from 200 tick chart Stop moved to +1.5 pips at

first opportunity since we're facing considerable uphill climb in front of likely S/R. Not exactly a high

prob entry. Dow plunging on 1 minute chart.

15: 11:01 stopped out for another $7 profit after commissions. Who'd have thought? Time for breakfast.

Bot still up 6.5 pips. Instead placed another long limit order at 1.2377, 4 pips above price and 4 pips

below MM 6/8 (I can hear @Fat Tails every time I mention MM ) --make the market work a little if it's

going to take my money.

16. 11:06 Price weaking, no momentum, no nothing except FOMO. Cancelled order. Bot still up 9.5 pips--

stupid bot.

17. 11:07 long limit order filled at 1.24835--absolutely my most hated entry (breakout). Initial stop

placed just above day's loss limit including previous gains at 1.24685. No real justification for the

entry, the exuse is "I'm going to quit for the day if that trade goes south."

18. 11:15 stop hit and that's it for me for today, down $158 after the smoke clears. Now where did I put that stick I beat myself with.

Notes:

Market Sentiment post first order entry:
Possible explanation of drop just before 9:AM EST from ForexLive by Adam Button || August 22, 2012 at

12:50 GMT

Euro Hits Stops Below 1.2440

Risk aversion spikes and the US dollar makes broad gains.
EUR/USD bids at 1.2420/30 with more stops below.
No fundamental drivers for the latest moves, which were led by breakdowns in Bund and Treasury yields.



Market Sentiment pre trade:

Orderboard from ForexLive:
EUR/USD: Bids 1.2420/30, sell stops below. Tech supp 1.2390/00 (55 day MA- 1.2390). Offers start

1.2480/00 ahead of a barrier at 1.2500 (part of a 1.20/25 DNT), also talk of SNB related offers from

supranational. Buy stops through 1.2510 ahead of offers 1.2535/50 (July 5 high 1.2538) and ahead of the

1.2550 barrier

Futures from CNBC @ 9:30 AM:
DOW (Mini)
1month

FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-22.42)

13203.58 13177.0 -22.00 13176.58 13177.0 0.42
Last Updated: 08:24:23 AM

S&P 500 (Mini)
1month

FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-1.63)

1413.17 1409.3 -3.20 1410.87 1409.3 -1.57
Last Updated: 08:23:47 AM

NASDAQ (Mini)
1month

FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-3.25)

2772.2 2769.25 -4.75 2770.75 2769.25 -1.50
Last Updated: 08:24:59 AM

OIL 96.68 -0.16 -0.17%

GAS 3.0655 0.0003 +0.01%

NAT GAS 2.826 0.051 +1.84%

GOLD 1642.00 1.30 +0.08%

SILVER 29.40 -0.028 -0.1%


Events from BabyPips
Session Time Currency Event Impact Actual Forecast Prev.
London New York 10:00 USD Existing home sales med 4.51 mn

4.37 mn
New York 14:00 USD Minutes from prior (31 Jul-1 Aug) FOMC Meeting

released high
Sydney Tokyo 23:30 USD Fed's Evans discusses current economic conditions and

monetary policy in press briefing low

ForexStreet news bullish for euro but also for dollar:

Forex Flash: EUR/USD targets 1.2700 – BBH
Wed, Aug 22 2012, 12:26 GMT | FXstreet.com
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Related News
Forex Flash: EUR/USD targets 1.2700 – BBH
Forex Flash: EUR a bright spot as of late – BNZ
EURUSD’s bull and bear fight….
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Greece outlook has gotten more constructive as the meetings start, according to

the BBH team. Juncker will be in Athens today while Greek PM Samaras will be in Berlin and Paris on Friday

and Saturday. Hollande and Merkel will also meet tomorrow in Berlin. "Despite the flurry of meetings, the

Greek saga will continue to play out over the coming weeks until the Troika decision and German court

ruling in September", they say.

"The technical picture seems to favor further euro gains near-term", BBH says. "The euro broke above the

$1.2445 area Tuesday that had capped the euro in August, which also coincided with a retracement level from

the June-August drop in EUR/USD", analysts comment. "That break targets the June 28 high near $1.2700, but

further gains could be a slow slog as markets await further developments regarding Draghi's proposed bond-

buying plan".

Forex Flash: Dollar is bullish against the majors – UBS
Wed, Aug 22 2012, 12:15 GMT | FXstreet.com
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Related News
Forex Flash: EUR/USD targets 1.2700 – BBH
EURUSD’s bull and bear fight….
Forex Flash: Dollar is bullish against the majors – UBS
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - FX markets consolidated the majority of yesterday’s gains, with the DXY trading

flat in the European session. Most major equity markets were trading slightly in the red at the time of

writing, though news flow was relatively light ahead of the FOMC minutes due later in the US session.

According to FX Strategist Chris Walker at UBS, “Our core views remain bullish for the dollar against the

euro, pound, yen and Swiss franc, while exercising a degree of caution with commodity currencies at current

levels against the greenback.”

The Eurozone debt crisis remains a focal point, with EUR/USD around 10 big figures lower, and Spanish 10y

bond yields 65 percentage points higher, than was the case in May. Lastly, “we remain confident that the

SNB will maintain the 1.2000 floor in EUR/CHF for the foreseeable future.” Walker adds.


ETA: Chart showing the carnage:

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ETA: 11:42 AST Imagining the lads and lassies trading market profile are now just beginning to evaluate the opening range and its implications. Too bad I've already blown the wad & quit trading for the day

ETA: 12:00 AST notice divergence between EUR/USD and Dow may be setting in. Dow plunging while EUR/USD still gaining. Upshot is the damn bot is still ahead of the game by a pip.

ETA: 12:30 AST Bot ends the session on the European close down $293. Don't know whether to feel superior to the machine or to rue this additional evidence one can't program a bot to outstrip one's own knowledge & experience (psychological factors aside).

ETA: latest version of the bot attached (per Monte Python's reasoning same name to avoid confusion ). Now enters a trade at session open (7 AM AST) depending on prevailing trend. Optimized on 1800 tick data for all of 2012 to present (which had the effect of adjusting the preemptive stop and interim profit target slightly. Backtesting indicates positive expectancy, as expected but Monte Carlo reminds us train wrecks can happen, and in any event potential drawdown is still significant.

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Last edited by bnichols; August 22nd, 2012 at 02:12 PM. Reason: add chart, typo, clarity, watching market to avoid yard work
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Old August 22nd, 2012, 03:31 PM   #87 (permalink)
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Road to hell being paved with good intentions, done for the day or not couldn't pass up the reaction to FOMC so in at what may be support central at 1.2486, trailing stop currently at 1.2507, 1 & only target off in the boonies (approx the 100 day MA at 1.2615ish) but need a whole lot of other people's buy stops to get triggered to make it that far. I'll let you know how that works out :-/

ETA: discretion the better part of valor sacrificed my trailing stop to the gaping maw of price at 1.2519 for a gain of 33 pips before commissions, ca. 100 pips short of the target. You can take the boy out of short time frame trading, but you can't take short time frame trading out of the boy. Part of the problem is, while the spectre of QE might spike the markets I can't believe it's good for the economy, so guess I live in fear traders en masse will awaken one morning with a conscience (and sell at the prospect of central planners printing more money). Not being totally risk averse however, in the meantime my gold swing (long at the moment) stays put Also, seems to me gold traders think a lot slower than currency traders...not an insult but in the sense of the mills of the gods, that grinding exceeding slow but exceeding fine....welcome relief to downshift now and then (because traffic has slowed rather than in search of torque)

While I finished the day ahead, and IMO when trading cash that is an issue, overall I feel like I've betrayed myself by betraying the plan. Oh well--may be time to change the plan then, if the bottom line is "be true to yourself [so far as yourself is profitable]". Time to choose between a glass of wine and yard work.


Last edited by bnichols; August 22nd, 2012 at 05:18 PM.
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Old August 23rd, 2012, 01:03 PM   #88 (permalink)
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Woke up late, tired & totally uninspired today. Followed the bot into a single trade, one contract long @ 1.2561 at 11:26 AM AST, out @ 1.2583 at 12:29 PM (session close) for 22 pips (ca. $215 after commission)

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Old August 24th, 2012, 07:08 AM   #89 (permalink)
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One short trade with 1 contract this AM trading (what I consider) chop stopped out for 1/2 pip profit after commission--my bad for chickening out and putting the stop too close to the action. Having my angel hat on may sit on my hands now until events at 8:30. On the other hand, bot like a fool just rushed in to go short 2 contracts @ 1.25345 (on paper) even though the signal from anaSuperTrend is mixed, currently ahead ca. 10-18 pips, trailing stop at 1.26139 and dropping.

ETA: 7:24 AST Bot stop now at 1.2586 and dropping, price consolidating 15 pips below short entry. I might be tempted to take a little off the table at this point and will probably add the option of moving to breakeven to the bot together with adding to a winning trade if conditions warrant and see what backtesting says about that. Not sure at the moment how to define "add....if conditions warrant".

My (day-) trend trading system is showing mixed signals but overall favoring a short if & when the time comes (negative momentum and 50SMA trend on 200-, 600- and 1800 tick charts but cycle not aligned yet--stochs needs to turn down on 200- and 600- tick charts ideally somewhere over 55, and MACD slope turn negative). Bot stop 1.25629 and dropping.

ETA: guessing that if EUR/USD breaks down through 1.2520 bidders it will start triggering sell stops down to 1.2500--not sure what will happen after that. Trick is to stay aware of what price is actually doing however and not bake in the attitude "trend is negative and it's going to drop any moment now."

ETA: by 7:53 short 1 contract at 1.2522 on cash account, selling into support essentially from ca. 1 stdev above median of current mode (much prefer the thin edge of the wedge where activity is down 3-4 stdev, in this case shorting S1 at 1.25265 ), initial stop above S1 at 1.2528 or roughly 1/2 my daily loss limit of 0.2% of the account, 1/2 contract targets at 1.2513 and just above S2 at 1.24935. Not a high probablity entry and even as I type this price has started looking positively buoyant


ETA: 8:03 AST moved cash account trailing stop to break even after commission, well within striking distance of price but feeling fragile & just not in the mood to take a loss this AM. Bot stop at 1,25621--flattening out while price makes up its mind.

ETA: 8:13 AST stop hit for $7 profit after commission--could be stop hunters but got to face the fact it's more likely just chop. Bite me. Since I'm feeling like a sissy probably ought to be doing something less brutal than trading, playing in freeway traffic say. Not going to see another entry for a while ; in any event will see what happens after news 8:30 EST.

ETA: 8:25 AST Bot still active, stop at 1.25546, already ahead 24 pips just as the floor falls away taking out what was the first target in the trade that aborted. I picture one of those idiot TV reporters who prey on shell shocked victims of disasters sticking a microphone up my nostril and asking, "Soooooo...how does that make you feel?". Bot ahead 28 pips or so, stop at 1.25472.

ETA: 8:37 watching bot at +32 pips just added "Thinking too much" under "Bad Habits" in my private journal. Maybe a long enough crayon up the nose will solve that problem...worked for Homer Simpson. Price pausing in its plunge, feeling the effect of the proximity to 1.25000. Bot stop essentially at break even.

ETA: ca. 9:03 AST, my trades so far today (first figure) vs bot trade (second figure)
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ETA: 9:18 AST, 3rd figure (below) shows 3rd trade of the day, for a few dollars more, somewhat by the book except didn't place the stop until after 1st target hit--not the smartest move but perfectly consistent with "crayon up the nose" approach. In any event not much further ahead. NOW we wait for news at 8:30 AST.

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ETA: 9:43 news turns out to be a non-starter, a few more long/short trades stopped out for a few more pips, up $40 today so far. This is nuts. Bot still placidly short 2 contracts on paper, stop now at 1.25323, up about $600, but as I write this I notice price going through the floor yet again...yep...bot briefly up just over $1000 :-/. IIRC bot's first intermediate target at 57 pips (still has 10-11 pips to go), stop at 1.25268. Time for the human to look for another setup, likely short around 1,2504 - 1.2512. Likely won't reach that until N American stock markets have opened, while opening range is setting up and during any boost associated with stock market index gap closure, so will have to be a little circumspect.

ETA: 10:15 AM, short entry placed at 1.2511 to give the algos something to process and to prevent me clicking buttons, price playing silly buggers just below, but otherwise thumb twiddling 15 minutes to N. Am stock market open. Bot stop 1.2525, so "guaranteed" 10 pips. In terms of psychology the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is not strong in this one today.

ETA: 10:39 AM still thumb twiddling (see figure below) while price consolidates below my entry (which, if paying attention and quick enough I may cancel and replace with a short stop if price rises too aggressively), bot stop unchanged at 1.2525, its profits having plunged $300 - $400 to under $700.


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ETA: 10:58 AM nudged entry upward to 1.2512 (what I'm treating as a range trade), top of 4-stdev regression channel since trend trader tea leaves are saying "time not auspicious to consider a short". Boy I'm nervous nelly today.

ETA: 11:01 AM EST, short at 1.2512 for better or worse. Stop a little pricey for me (in excess of 0.2%) and a show stopper if hit, but in the vicinity of what the bot is using. Besides, if chicken little gets half a chance he will move it between entry and price at the first opportunity.

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ETA: 11:18 AM EST sure enough, moved the stop to 1.2511 and got stopped out for another few bucks profit (see figure below). Range trades like catching knives--may have to take up juggling chainsaws to get my nerve back. Bottom line is momentum has gone to zero and I don't like 50% odds, and trend trader ouija board still points to "go long at the earliest opportunity" (which means waiting to place a long limit order above support and a couple of pips above price when it looks like any subsequent retrace is running out of steam, or if it looks like a range trade with an upward bias). Resisting the strong urge to buy a breakout with the Dow spiking at 11:38 AST. (Oh look.....there goes something shiny! Did anyway--took the breakout--hit one target + trailing stop for another few bucks. What a stupid move. Will be going back to the drawing board this weekend )

ETA: 11:58 AST, about to enter last 30 minutes of European session. In the mood to watch for any short lived effect of longs/shorts bailing ahead of the weekend, although EUR/USD not responding while US stock market indices going parabolic--never a good sign.

ETA: 12:06 AST packing it in for the day. Made about $15 / hour today after expenses but before taxes--better than a poke in the eye but nowhere near enough to support me in the style to which I'd like to become accustomed.

Bot bailed at 1.25235 for a profit of 11 pips (2 contracts) on paper and immediately went long at the same price. It will shut down at end of session (12:30 pm AST 16 minutes from now), and is already down almost $100. If it doesn't pull this off may make an adjustment to its program (e.g. don't switch teams in the last 30 minutes).

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ETA: 12:15 before I could finish typing that EUR/USD took off and gained about 33 pips in less than a minute, in an otherwise controlled move that kissed what I have as the floor pivot at 1.2558. Bot is now up another $400. How the hell does it do that???

Hope it has nothing to do with Empire State Building shooting just now That said, hate to discuss it but if so suspect market will give up last gains once it's accepted it's a disgruntled employee rather than a terrorist act. Could be due e.g. to other news which is not really news (from ForexLive.com)


Quoting 
Rumor Mill Cranks Up Again: ECB Considering Setting Yield Band Targets Under New Program

Reuters headline Citing central bank sources.
Expect a denial via Bloomberg in 20-30 minutes…
There have been rumors since the Draghi press conference that the ECB could set a target for yields spreads over the benchmark German bund, so this is merely a rehash.
The move above 1.2525 takes the immediate downside pressure off of EUR/USD and strengthens the support at 1.2480/90. 1.2590/95 is resistance, the later level the 38.2% of the drop from 1.3487.
Share and Enjoy:

By Jamie Coleman || August 24, 2012 at 15:17 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Central Banks, Regions || Tags: ECB || 0 comments || Add comment

but in any event rotated the sign in my trading shop window from "Closed" to "Open", short one contract @ 1.25475 on a wing and a prayer (certainly not momentum).

Bot exited up $594 after commissions for the day at session close.

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Status of short at ca 12:50 PM AST, girlish stop in place target inspired by Lotto 649 & a glass of wine--5 pm somewhere (I have the greatest respect for women, especially women traders, among my best friends, including my wife, but being male tend to respect big, dumb manly stops & targets--just don't place stops that way).
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ETA: 13:16 PM AST volume gone to zero, bias still negative for EUR/USD, ahead about 14 pips. Divided about whether to fold 'em or settle in for a long winter's discontented nap until close of trading. Amuse myself by playing Leonard Cohen's "Closing Time" in the back of my brain, then out of the speakers (if you click the link to the song, suffer the ad or find the small red X at the upper right of the video).
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ETA: 13:52 PM AST up 11 pips, like having teeth pulled while watching paint dry. Or watching grass grow. Reminds me of baseball--IMO they use artificial turf in baseball arenas because it doesn't distract from the game. For you landscape painters--what zero momentum is like when ahead of the game. Still....better than getting a shower, having something to eat on top of the toast and salsa at 7:00 AM and 5 cups of coffee and working on the deck--better than getting a life, in other words, although having second thoughts. Even turned the phone on, first call from a son who wants to drop by on the weekend to talk about currency trading--no issues there. Traders back from an early lunch enter at 2:00 PM AST (1 PM EST) with no enthusiasm one way or the other yet. Thinking of moving my stop down into the suicide zone. Compromise by moving it to 1.2539, just above suicide (8.5 pips profit before commission). The know it all in the back of my head tells me I don't trade this for a reason. I respond--you think you know it all, but you don't. Price humours me, reinforcing bad behaviour--now up 15 pips. I count the layers of steel between my elation at making 15 pips and the black depression of having my stop taken out at +8.5 pips and imagine how nice a show would feel right now. Participation flatlined 40 minutes ago.

I like an envelope--gives me something to test now and then.

I feel like the stereotypical wounded guy who gets left behind to defend a position in the usual sci-fi horror flick. with an automatic weapon and a grenade, while the love interest gets away--come and get me you bastards.

ETA: 2:47 PM Alrighty--there goes the Dow (rising like a phoenix, straight up). Luckily EUR/USD a slow learner. Closed the position in a heartbeat (that would be the grenade, for you movie afficiendos), "Afternoon move" popped up on my daytimer at the same instant.
Picture of EUR/USD before it knows what hit it:
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Went long at 1.25345 to test the hypothesis.
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Last edited by bnichols; August 24th, 2012 at 02:56 PM. Reason: typo, updates.
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