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STF discretionary spot Forex system development journal


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STF discretionary spot Forex system development journal

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  #121 (permalink)
 bnichols 
Dartmouth NS
 
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Or if you use NT exclusively, then Kinetick which is same but cheaper.

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Yeah....canceled my IQ connection some time ago--should remove it from my profile--more focused on slippage (suspected "true" tick value driving entries doesn't matter if the broker fulfillment is in the stone age). Will think about it but at the moment a question of whether true autonomy beats the enjoyment of yanking my kids chains, as well adjusted as they may be now, still worth something in light of all the emotional damage they cost us in their formative years

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  #122 (permalink)
 bnichols 
Dartmouth NS
 
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As feared company showed up, in this case my wife back from the marriage of my oldest daughter's best friend (an overnight trip 2 hours from here, wondering what the statistics are that marriage invites 2 hrs away are overnight, best friend having married an apparent musician, whom I met and whom I can't stand so didn't bother to attend myself, despite of and because of the offer of an open bar--can picture myself getting drunk and objecting to the union at the crucial moment, having accepted the best friend in her youth showing up on the doorstep asking "Can I sleep here" from time to time as a daughter, just unable to influence her choices). News relayed by my wife, my daughter tells me we have their (my daughter's) dogs for a couple of weeks while they vacation in Denver. No issue with that, absolutely love dogs & helped raise them from puppies so not sure why I've broken the seal on a bottle of Italian Mezzacorona Pinot Grigio (2011), which I hope will render me incapable of thought very shortly.

ETA: Unlikely to trade the Pac-Rim open tonight, but will run things up to record the ticks.

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  #123 (permalink)
 bnichols 
Dartmouth NS
 
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Spent most of yesterday watching one thing or another (EUR/USD, part of Al Brooks 4th webinar), entertaining guests (family), and making a few inconsequential paper trades based on what I gleaned from the video (4 for 4 trades of 1.2 contracts for the grand total of $29 after commission). Beginning to appear whatever was causing NT grief is confined to the previous computer system.

On the topic of guests, having become a bit of a hermit welcome the distraction from trading from time to time. On the topic of Al Brooks, I may be ready to appreciate his perspective, attitude & his trading style, since his webinars all of a sudden make perfect sense & the approach seems to fill a huge gap in my trading know how (know how at the moment comprising mostly trend trading tricks and a few unproven hypotheses about ranges)--one of those "don't know you're thirsty until you take a drink" situations.

ETA: First trade of the day (still on paper) already in progress, initial stop originally at 1.27845 moved to protect the entry according to existing protocol (if price action becomes iffy don't take a loss). Swing range trade entered prematurely, but in the spirit of A. Brooks ("get in any way you can" and "set the initial stop appropriate to price action").


ETA: Stopped out for $7 after commission. In hindsight initial target shouldn't have been so ambitious perhaps but it takes 2 to tango--market needs to find its fingers, keep its side of the bargain.....yes.....dealing with a bit of an emotional flare-up

Setting up at 8:12 AM EST for 2nd (short) trade, more or less a 5 energies inspired downtrend trade: 50 SMA, momentum negative, cycle (stochs) starting to pin below 50, retrace possibly due to bounce off Sunday Asian session low.


8:18 AM EST. Trade entered, ambitious targets but tiny stop because a) expect buyers at 50 and b) not yet clear price is actually ready to break out of earlier range


8:29 AM EST: trade modified to scale in when 1/2 stop taken out. Probably wise to put 1st target at floor pivot than below that at previous day's close :-/


8:37 AM EST: stopped out for a few pips more when price (as feared) was distracted by the floor pivot. Got to review my "take no losses" protective stop policy, 1st amendment to a "get in at all costs" strategy Right now the approach depends on strong commitment by price to move away from the entry early on, which in my opinion is required to confirm the setup. When price dithers around after the trade is entered I take it as a bad sign. Having botched the breakout now sit on my hands and grit my teeth and watch price plummet as I believed initially it would, waiting for a retrace and another short entry.

8:48 AM EST: Here we go again, entering on a mini retrace to yesterday's close (IMO not strictly trading the breakout) sans the break even stop, prepared for price to play silly buggers for a while until it either resumes the downtrend or takes out my sensible stop (which will not impress me). Need to keep an eye on the clock because we're still pre- US market open (in ca. 90 minutes) and don't want to trade across the open. Dropping activity while price sniffs around the pivot & yesterday's close not helping the blood pressure. Exactly like taking the dogs for a walk. Wonder what I did with the pooper-scooper.


9:14 AM EST: Initial stop hit for a loss of $131 after commission, down $145 so far today. I congratulate myself for not moving the stop, wonder if I'd placed it higher (on the other side of the range, around 1.2811 say), whether I'd earn even more congratulations by taking an even bigger loss. Note to self--try not to sell into wall-to-wall support next time. In the meantime back to the "take no losses" protective stop (scalping vs swinging). Guess I prefer getting rich slowly to losing everything quickly. Recorded first mild oath of the day--3 in a row and I pack it in. Trying to decide what is happening resolve to go back to cash on Monday--paper may be detrimental to discipline, and can't afford to lose what little discipline I possess. Occurs to me this is what giving your money to other traders by the wheelbarrow full is like and the joke about the smuggler comes to mind (customs officials cannot for the life of them figure out what buddy is up to, time after time searching through the junk in the wheelbarrow he pushes across the border every day...smuggling wheelbarrows, of course)

10:05 AM EST: Never say die: next trade nets $277 after commission. Potential transition to uptrend so looking for significant retrace to go long (expect R2 to be healthy resistance ahead of 1.2850--convergence of 200 day MA and a trend line, want to take a good run at it. Interesting to see if technicals--bearish at 1.2850--win over sentiment, more or less Euro bullish ahead of next installment on Thursday in eternal QE deliberations ).


10:34 AM AST: 4 minutes into the US open no sign gap up in the DOW eager to close so this (1.28175/235) may be all of the retrace we get from 1.28342 any time soon In any event in long at 1.2824, stop at 1.28215, will move to protect + a pip or 2 ASAP. Wondering what Al Brooks would do but suspect in any case he wouldn't use such a girlish stop :-/

10:42 AM AST: trailing stop at entry + 1.5 pips hit almost immediately even if price creeping higher. Want a decent retrace since with price creeping up expect R2 to give but each FOMO-driven entry is weaker than the last. In long again at 1.28305, stop at 1.28235. US open definitely adds inertia to EUR/USD, and not the good kind. DOW climbing steeply puffing smoke....I think I can....I think I can.

10:50 AM AST: stop at 1.28315 (entry + 1 pip) within ground effect of R2....not holding my breath...wonder how long it will take the sellers depressing the EUR/USD here to realize they're about to lose a lot of money (or if it's lack of buyers, how long to realize they're about to miss out on a Good Thing). Yep...trash talking tends to prevent me hitting the "Bail Now" button.



11:04 AM AST. Stop hit for another few bucks profit after commission even though IB's paper trading algorithm broke the exit into several small orders to maximize commission. Note to EUR/USD....I can do this all day. I will get rich trading STF spot currency if I have to do it a pip at a time. Trend (50 SMA) gone on my setup chart (600 tick) while price consolidates, but in long again at 1.28315 just as price breaks upward to R2 at 1.28342, stop at break even + 1.5 pips taken out almost immediately. As I said....if it takes 1 pip at a time. Not sure what got into the action just now...bucking and farting for no apparent reason (owned horses once, have a soft spot for them but don't miss the vet bills)...may be some longer term interests getting interested again at this price but also signs in the DOW--starting to feel like a relatively significant decision point and don't want to lose too much money (on paper) trying to 2nd guess the outcome.

11:27 AM AST. In long at 1.28285, stop at 1.28235, on the slightest sign bulls may be asserting themselves. Trying hard to cultivate the perspective--a certain clarity of vision or intuitive sense--that is otherwise accessible only after an order has been accepted and price begins to move against you: the "Aha---I knew it!" point of view, living in the Eureka moment as it were, which unfortunately at this stage remains in the category of clairvoyance.

11:35 stop at 1.2832 (break even +4 pips) as price gyrates higher. Sensible target near 1.2850 even though greed (like the woman leaning in her darkened door in the Leonard Cohen song "Bird on a wire") screams "Why not ask for more"? [Because asking for more we'd likely wind up with nothing, silly, and a singe sensible target--no runner--is as silly as I want to get]. Seriously, haven't proven it to myself yet but all out at the peak (start of the retrace, which is easy enough to pick)--getting all out while the getting is good for pretty much the same reason as we go all in initially--and waiting for a new setup educated by hindsight seems preferable to taking partial profits at the high followed by gnashing of teeth and tearing of hair until getting trailing-stopped out when the retrace deepens into consolidation.



11:45 AM EST. Target hit at 1.28475 for $223 after commission (on paper). Still waiting for that retrace with 30 minutes remaining until activity plummets at end of European trading :-/

12:43 PM EST: Today's summary--all trades including a number not mentioned, the last totally ill-advised, cost me money and a sign it was (long past) time to quit. Nothing to write home about, another "airplane landing day" (glad I could walk away from it). Bottom line is, if trading cash I will stick to scalp stops to mitigate losses before they get out of hand. Have work to do if I'm going to swing trade anything but a trend.

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  #124 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Hi there, a quick dumb question for you: what is AST? Some kind of timezone but I'm not sure which. I know you have some whacky timezones over there. You said the US opens at 10:30 and you said the Europeans stop trading at 12:15 - is that what you meant? What instrument are you talking about then.

While I'm at it, what is ETA: ?

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  #125 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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AST = Atlantic Standard Time = GMT - 4 hours (Only in Canada, like Red Rose tea)

ETA = Edited To Add.

10:30 AM AST = 9:30 AM EST = 13:30 GST, assuming DST (Daylight Saving Time) in effect (or not) in all 3 zones, refers to time of day major N American stock markets open (e.g., NYSE, NASDAQ, TSX), so the instrument in question is likely a stock (or ETF).

Similarly 12:30 PM AST = 11:30 AM EST = 16:30 GMT when most major European stock markets close. (12:15 may be a typo).

TLA's (3 letter abbreviations) and time zones make my head spin (time zones not as much since my globe trotting days ended). Mostly I just sit in front of the computer sipping coffee, clicking buttons for better or worse when price starts to move. On a related topic, I think someone asked since nothing is happening at 7 AM AST why I would start my trading session then. Answer of course is the coffee generally has time to take effect.

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  #126 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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One trade so far this AM, still active, entry at 1.2925, stop presently at 1.28685, target 1.29495 (yep...risk/reward greater than 2). This is an intentional experiment with "big picture" trades, partly psychological, while still trading paper--daughter just dropped off her 2 dogs for a couple of weeks and don't feel like babysitting trades today as well. Prepared to believe, based on noises emanating from a few news services I subscribe to that the EUR/USD will touch 1.2950 during the session, even though as usual one can find as many opinions for as against. In the meantime however price needs to negotiate the N American open and any tendency of the markets to close the opening gap, whence the otherwise ill advised (if not ill-advised in any case) risk/reward ratio. Looking at the market almost 4 hours after entering the trade no surprise we're down 30+ pips vs perhaps 24 pips potential gain, the "voices" easier to deal with if I can say, "Relax....all part of the plan".

Perhaps should add normally I have no problem exiting a trade and hardwiring in a loss no matter what size, since IMO we've already suffered the loss and exiting a trade makes resources available for subsequent setups, but mainly disconnects P/L from price movement for better or worse and allows us to equilibrate. In the case of a loss if staying in the market does not always make things much worse then it simply maintains the potential for dire consequences--not a happy state of affairs. Hope of a loss turning around at the whim of the market is no longer a factor since I accepted the market cannot be trusted--"can remain irrational far longer than we can remain solvent"-- and discovered I'm able to nickle and dime my way back to break even more often than not once resources are available when the need arises. That said, far from ready to pull this kind of stunt with real money.

ETA: 12:23 PM AST. An advantage of Not Trading is getting to read what other folks are doing while the day is young and I still have a few wits left--man there's a lot of creative genius on this board.

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  #127 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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Trade still after today's go-nowhere price action, so nothing to report.

In other news, very much enjoyed Manesh Patel's webinar this afternoon (" Psychology of Trading"); learned some new stuff and was reminded there are a few things I need to take more seriously.

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  #128 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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Trade still active. Not as much of a bounce in Pac-Rim and European markets (so far) as I hoped and the option to hold the position losing its appeal for me as expiry approaches, so to speak (FOMC rate decision (12:30 EST) and the Chairman's remarks (14:15 EST)).

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  #129 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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Couldn't sleep--got up in the middle of the night to babysit the trade, ended up drinking poisonous amounts of coffee laced with Maca to keep the eyes open by the time the FOMC announcement rolled around at 12:30 PM EST.

The trade was immediately stopped out for a loss of $671 during the ensuing +/- 50 pip price gyrations. What a feeling of relief--free at last Starting to accept I'm not ready for swing trading--next week it's down to business.

Subsequently made back $1091 in a few hours scalping to end the day up $420 after commission (on paper) doing what I do best (just not all that well yet)--gladly accepting money the market is giving away hand over fist.

Figures show charts and summary, respectively.





ETA: Reviewing mainly losing trades just now it occurs to me today was another case of making 20 trades when one would suffice, bringing to mind Jesse Livermore's comment in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator":

"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."

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 bnichols 
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I can't remember ever having "sleeping habits". I will sleep for 15 minutes, or an hour or 4 or 6 hours--never longer--waking up at any hour of the day or night and immediately sitting down in front of the markets to see what's going on but unfortunately also to see what still matters more to me--what I missed. I recognize that sleep has enormous benefits but am apparently wired in "we can sleep when we die" fashion, not sure I can change that after all this time. What has changed is I'm able to avoid leaping into the fray in the first few minutes after a 3 second glance at the charts, while the screens are still blurry and before the coffee has kicked in. Whence these opening remarks...simply to give the mind and fingers something to keep them occupied.

What I see right now is a missed a 60 pip rise in EUR/USD over the Pac-Rim session, price now rattling around prior day close/high, any trend long since dissipated. Manesh Patel warns if we stare at the charts long enough we see what we want to see, but this advice doesn't help me see what is there, what I'm not equipped to see, and it occurs to me I really have to bite the bullet and read Al Brooks' books from start to finish in the hope of putting these transitions into some kind of context. All I can do for now is obey one of the cardinal rules--if uncertain don't trade. What we miss is not as important as what we gain, and what we gain not as important as what we lose, and we will lose if we trade when things are not clear.

Alrighty....seem to have gotten the waking jitters out of my system so will take a peak at the news feeds to try to assess overall sentiment, maybe dust off Mr Brooks.

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