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STF discretionary spot Forex system development journal


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STF discretionary spot Forex system development journal

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  #111 (permalink)
 bnichols 
Dartmouth NS
 
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In this case "What works" for me in the 200- 600- 1800-tick time frame class is a combo of 5 energies + channel trading, coupled with the fact the market is in "drunk monkey" mode** (i.e., as in "even a drunk monkey can make money when the market is trending").


**ETA: stems from my own experience learning how to trade, that in hindsight it is quite possible for a newbie to lose money in a trending market however, whence in a contest between a newbie and a drunk monkey my money would probably be on the monkey.

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  #112 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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A family saying coined by my granddaughter comes to mind, who (being ferried around by my wife in her SUV) learned to exclaim, "THAT was close, Gramma".

Managed to turn things around in the first couple of hours of the session mostly because price was trending--hard to mess up--and up over $624 on paper at one point over the low due to the misbegotten overnight trade. Unfortunately instead of quitting when the trend ended about 15 minutes before noon (AST; 11 AM EST) and participation plummeted, I halved the quantity and looked for setups during the ensuing consolidation--not my strong suit. The 2nd image below (today's Summary, which appears to be accurate, and list of trades) sums up how that went. Pretty much all I learned is I'm not a good loser; by the time I managed to terminate the session I was still ahead of the game but the room was full of blue smoke from the cursing. Need to work on that, maybe install one of these...


Today's trading summary (paper):

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  #113 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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Setting out to review Friday's losing trades just now confess it took me a while to realize price data on the chart I was comparing to trades from the Performance Summary was out of whack because I didn't have "Tools>Options>Save chart data" or "Tools>Options>Record for market replay" boxes checked in the new laptop configuration, hence I was looking at charts for Aug 31 marked up with trades from Sept 7 (yet again a week's worth of tick data up in smoke--keep forgetting that with NT saving data is an opt-in feature, which is why I have to establish and learn to adhere to a configuration checklist. Will construct one right now as penance).

This probably is not an issue for brokers that provide historical tick data, but IB does not. Without "Save freeeeeking data" boxes checked, even though NT happily plots incoming tick data on the chart during the trading session (lulling slow learners like me into a false sense of security), NT also cheerfully deep-sixes it when you shut down. I'll try to get the data from one of my kids (who use brokers that provide tick data) but to end on a positive note one great thing about NT is it's definitely good at ferreting out one's sins and rubbing one's nose in them, even if (as I've said before) machine logic is reminiscent of Vogon constructor fleet logic (e.g., Jeltz, responding to the panic of the population of Earth when they learn the planet is seconds away from annihilation, with "There's no point in acting all surprised about it. The plans and demolition orders have been on display at your local planning office in Alpha Centauri for fifty of your Earth years, so you've had plenty of time to lodge formal complaints.'' )

ETA: For the record and possibly to save others some head scratching, when NT historical charts open like this you know you're screwed:

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  #114 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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Tick data received from a son running NT with Gain (thanks again Dan!) am now able to reload the charts and compare failed trade entries to signals as they were at the time. As expected reconstructed bars don't match perfectly what NT was displaying at the time but not really an issue for this exercise. Will mark up in NT for speed and post as conclusions are drawn rather than wait until all trades processed since being Sunday can look forward to entertaining company at any moment and may not get through all trades.

First situation--trades 7 though 9 inclusive, 3 failed trades in a row between 10:37 AM AST and 11:05, 2 longs followed by a short in the vicinity of MM 5/8 on the (STF) 200 tick chart but in the middle of nowhere in terms of MM on the MTF (600) and LTF (1800 tick) charts, EXCEPT all as price was retracing to magic number 50 (1.2750) during the uptrend that characterized the entire morning. In terms of 5 energies signals,

- rising 50 SMA in all 3 time frames supporting an uptrend in progress for quite a while, and supporting long entries
- Momentum (MACD) above zero supporting uptrend on 200- and 600-tick charts but slope negative, indicating retrace, suggesting sit on hands.
- Cycle (Stochastics) falling on 600-tick chart (setup chart), telling me to sit on my hands, but rising on 200-tick chart at time the first trade was entered.

Overall nothing to justify the trades from a 5 energies perspective.

Altogether suggest I was overconfident from earlier gains, aware a strong trend was in progress, eager to get in at the earliest possible moment--suspect a very small initial target habitually of 3 pips may be a detrimental psychological factor here, first 2 longs suggesting I was apparently determined to pick resumption of the trend based on S/R alone on the STF chart (i.e., from entry chart rather than 600-tick setup chart), and 200-tick MM S/R rather than actual price turning points or magic numbers, which are part of the relatively larger picture provided by the setup chart.

The final trade in the suite is the most embarrassing--"capitulating" just as the retrace is culminating in value fulfillment at the magic number of 50. I suppose this is because strong trends still instill a fear of the "pansy trap"--fear of believing in the trend and being caught long when the trend ends (which no doubt stems from wounds I may still bear from one failed adolescent love relationship or another, true or not beyond the scope of trading psychology mentioned here ). 2 losses hurt enough to trigger the short response but whatever the reason, focus was too narrow and the cost of impatience/FOMO (fear of missing out) in this case from the previously posted trade summary was 53+5+83 = $141 for these 3 trades, or 0.08% of leveraged investment (1.2 contracts)--more than I want to spend at this stage on newbie mistakes.

Subsequent trades showed I managed to snap out of it when the trend resumed. What is more interesting to me and what I want to get to is the losing trades at the actual end of trend.

In the figure below blue rectangles highlight trades discussed above; on the left the 600-tick (setup) chart and on the right the 200-tick (entry) chart (all trades on paper).

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  #115 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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bnichols View Post
....The final trade in the suite is the most embarrassing--"capitulating" just as the retrace is culminating in value fulfillment at the magic number of 50. I suppose this is because strong trends still instill a fear of the "pansy trap"--fear of believing in the trend and being caught long when the trend ends (which no doubt stems from wounds I may still bear from one failed adolescent love relationship or another, true or not beyond the scope of trading psychology mentioned here ). ...

Regarding the "pansy trap" and any wounds we may still bear from adolescence, trading has renewed my belief in trends (and adolescence as a positive experience), "informed belief" superior in my opinion to the perspective of eternal cynics comprising e.g. DailyFX's countertrend "Speculative Interest Index"

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  #116 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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There are many years of tick data on 6E on the forum, if you need it. Check the QCollector thread and sticky topics in Elite section.

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  #117 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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Roger that & thanks Mike--took a quick peek earlier last week and came away with the impression it wasn't updated regularly--may be a mistake. Mainly wanted the opportunity to confirm the kid was still in the game

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  #118 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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bnichols View Post
Roger that & thanks Mike--took a quick peek earlier last week and came away with the impression it wasn't updated regularly--may be a mistake. Mainly wanted the opportunity to confirm the kid was still in the game

I update the QCollector thread monthly, it goes back to Jan 2011 with many instruments. The other main 6E historical thread has older data.

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  #119 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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Big Mike View Post
I update the QCollector thread monthly, it goes back to Jan 2011 with many instruments. The other main 6E historical thread has older data.

Mike

Thanks again. Fast coming to the belated conclusion IB's lack of historical tick data is going to do me in so looking for alternatives.

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  #120 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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bnichols View Post
Thanks again. Fast coming to the belated conclusion IB's lack of historical tick data is going to do me in so looking for alternatives.

IQFeed

Or if you use NT exclusively, then Kinetick which is same but cheaper.

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