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STF discretionary spot Forex system development journal


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STF discretionary spot Forex system development journal

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  #91 (permalink)
 bnichols 
Dartmouth NS
 
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Enjoy your weekend!

Mike

Thanks Mike....been a long week

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  #92 (permalink)
 bnichols 
Dartmouth NS
 
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3:07 PM AST, Dow having second thoughts, stop in at break even + commission + a pip for the pot. Shoot me now.

ETA: 3:17 PM stopped out for about $200 profit today after commission but before tax. Even we morons know when to quit.

ETA: All said and done roughly $20 / hour after expenses and before taxes. Need a job where I don't have to earn money. Tax collector's boss maybe. EUR/USD (& markets in general) definite negative burr under the blanket going into the close.\

ETA: After a bowl of All Bran with skim milk, yogurt + a cut-up peach ready to take on the planet. I take back what I said about morons knowing when to quit. Maybe there is something to all the fuss about eating after all. In any event short EUR/USD one contract at 1.2522, stop at 1.2520, target 1.2513. Must be the last career in business--can't leave a dollar on the table.

ETA: Target hit for $290 today ($26 /hour) after commission but before taxes.

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  #93 (permalink)
 bnichols 
Dartmouth NS
 
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07:20 AM EST Long spot EUR/USD 1.2 contracts @ 1.25245, initial stop 1.2517. Rationale is somewhat positive bias to momentum, positive US stock market futures, seeming positive market bias, apparently between major publicly declared offers & bids, bot is long.

7:43 AM EST stop moved to break even + 1 pip in slow market, price bouncing around 1 - 3 pips above that, stochs looking weak, no obvious enthusiasm. I get stopped out for a pip or 2 a fair amount using this initial stop strategy (essentially zero loss strategy) on trades that eventually move in in the right direction, but since sitting on my hands when a significant move begins am often able to participate later on, especially if the move takes off in the "wrong" direction. In the meantime I am not losing money (so far ), and IMO that is the main thing.

First entry, with stop @ break even + 1, 200 Tick chart


8:08 AM EST stopped out for about $7 profit (break even). Technically bias now flat to negative but with $7 in our pocket we can call the first trade a winner and feel no compulsion to reenter in opposite direction--good thing because I see neither a range nor trend setup--may even go long again if price/momentum turns around, but in the meantime we sit on our hands.
Exit at stop @ break even + 1, 200 Tick chart


8:18 AM EST enter trade 2 as shown in the chart below (2 pip initial stop). Weak entry, may be 50% odds but that's likely wishful thinking, more likely impatience This trade is intended to cause price to start moving--works every time...not....and will likely cost me.

Second entry, 200 Tick chart


8:36 AM EST. 1st target hit for 3 pips, stop hit at +1 pips. Unfortunately this trade comprised 3 static orders and was not an ATM strategy, so "initial/trailing stop" was actually a "sell stop" for 1.2 contracts until manually changed, meaning hitting stop after ricocheting off 1st target netted a short trade of 0.6 contracts instead of closing the trade. Closed manually when I realized what had happened. Up $15 for the day after the smoke cleared. Created an ATM strategy to do what I'm apparently trying to do so far this AM (scalp 1.2 contracts until the action picks up). Should probably stop this "cat with a mouse" messing around before the mouse bites the cat's head off. No trend on the 600 Tick (setup) chart and don't trust the range action.

Exit second trade badly, 200 Tick chart


9:19 Third entry: weak short range play, selling into significant support (according to MM) a stddev or 2 above median activity
Third entry, 200 Tick chart


9:22 stopped out. No surprises there but still gut wrenching when NT announces "Stop Filled" Down $1.50 for the day. To the delight of the devil sitting on my left shoulder just strangled the angel on my right shoulder, who said "Tsk tsk....told you so" once too often. Seriously though, setting stops too close for trading this kind of chop--either quit and wait for some other kind of action or broaden stop, and not willing to increase stop right now.

9:32 compromise by setting a limit buy at prior day high (1.2524), approximately on top of complex recent activity mode. May change but in the meantime something shiny to fixate upon. Technically price is buoyant and an uptrend may have started, but if so still nebulous--just as likely an extreme range play. If a trend sets up will wait for it to establish and try to spot setup on first retrace. Not interested in trading the range while momentum showing no sign of going to zero, and not interested in the potential breakout upward into R2. Will instead look for R2 to hold as resistance for possible short at top of range.

9:39 Sitting on hands waiting to take (counter) range trade off R2, but suspect any reversal may soon turn into retrace in up-trend. In fact, if price backs off enough before hitting R2 may go long when price takes another run at R2.



10:02 28 minutes to US market open, current thinking--weak buy at mode (FOMO long trade below price) or weaker buy (FOMO long trade above price) if price decides to take another run at R2 before returning to mode, which might suggest possible resumption of any nascent uptrend (FOMO = Fear Of Missing Out).


10:09 AM EST Upshot is weaker trade was taken. Figure below shows situation just before being stopped out. P&L after the trade was stopped out now negative $46. This is how we get nickled and dimed to death. Rationale for playing this game is
1. to be in on any actual move as early as possible
2. to take advantage of sudden momentum surge when move starts
3. so price quickly gets far enough away from breakeven so less chance of being stopped out at breakeven
4. in order to let the sucker run
5. to make some actual money.


10:22 "weak trade" taken--pure go long on support range play with nothing else to recommend it.


10:25 AM EST 1st target and trail hit at break even + 1 pip for a few pips more--oh well. P&L now negative $23. Now we sit and watch the US opening range & any bias develop.

Trade 5 summary


10:36 AM EST. Into open absolutely nothing happening. If I paved my driveway with the Dow it would be flatter than the pavement is now. Early in the session still but one of those days that reminds us any system is a non-starter that sets out to make X pips per day. Looking for a long range play as we speak but at the moment nothing much to suggest one...

In other news oil falling like a rock....guess being tied in the polls is a National Emergency and good enough reason to pump the SPR dry, a convenient spot of weather in the Gulf (of Mexico) hopefully enough to misdirect while we engage in a little hocus pocus dished up with a steaming side of mumbo jumbo. Being reminded what a mess things economic & political are right now may consider a short if it looks like price is going to meander down today. Would pack it in--might be smartest thing to do since I'm getting antsy--but my meagre discipline insists I sit here until session close.

10:48 Short play (ATM strategy) on zero activity :-/


10:56 first target hit, stop at break even + a pip or so. In other news looks like bot didn't get out of bed this AM...wonder what's up with that. Will check later since right now have another 3 pips to wring out of this market.

10:58 ATM strat exited trade, both targets hit, P&L now positive $41. Heard the bot going short just as ATM strat target 2 buy was hit so will take a peak--curious where it put the initial stop.



11:01 AM EST turns out bot went short 2 contracts at 1.25125, initial stop at 1.2547, now at 25444 and falling. Trust it knows what it's doing, but also trust it doesn't care--the thing we love most about bots. Since it's a trend trader may look for a short setup and follow it in. Any entry now would mean selling into the floor pivot, which if didn't hold might turn into a decent trade.

11:09 AM EST Entered short and immediately got whacked. P&L now negative $2. On the bright side bot is hurting much more right now Trend trading system (5 energies) suggest this might be a wicked retrace in a down trend (i.e., setting up to sell wave 2 if I'm counting waves right, first retrace, probably off of R1 & prior day high) if price ever looks back. If momentum ever reverses might turn into a high prob trade, but so far not so much.


11:26 AM EST In short and out at BE+1 for P&L of positive $3. Market starting to drive me nuts. Need one of those Cramer buttons about the size of a human head with a picture of my last financial adviser's face on it that shouts "NOTHING IS FREEEEEEKING HAPPENING" when punched. (Last financial adviser's strategy in such a market of course to churn the account to keep those commissions rolling in at any cost [to me]. Last I heard of him he left the broker I was with--likely kicked out--and to the regulator's chagrin nevertheless managed to set up shop under a new shingle with a couple of other shysters presumably to keep on keeping on doing what he does best----flush Other People's Money down the toilette). Moved what was left of the money out of that broker and (thought I) closed the accounts years ago, but continue to receive statements and threats of impending management fee charges that never materialize. Can't out paper-push the paper pushers.

Sorry for rambling--typing occupies my fingers and prevents them otherwise clicking buttons that would do more damage.

Bot still short & happy, down just over $100 as we speak, stop at 1.25396, about an hour left until it closes up shop for the day.

At limit of images for this post so may continue by starting another reply, but price's random walk now more of a drunken stagger may not trade anymore today.

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  #94 (permalink)
 bnichols 
Dartmouth NS
 
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12:30 PM EST Bot just exited at session close with a loss of $108 for the day on paper, up $730 on paper in the 8 days since inception (20 August)


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  #95 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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4:39 PM EST Last trade of the day, ATM short strategy set below consolidation area and left to it's own devices finally triggered. 1 target + trailing stop hit for end of day P&L of positive $55 after commissions, before taxes.



Summary of today's manual trades


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  #96 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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9:57 PM EST Trading the Asian Session because a) there is activity; b) I had a nap and have a few wits about me; and c) I can use the income. Entered short trade on mini-retrace in fairly aggressive downtrend above what I understand may be some support starting around 1.2475. Using MM + pivots (in this case S1) for target S/R (ATM strat trade, so initial targets are adjusted after the setup triggers )



Both targets hit:


Today's manual trading summary updated:



At this stage don't necessarily expect the downtrend to continue given bids apparently lurking in the area, but we'll see what happens once price is done consolidating here and bids adieu to S1--does it head north or south.

ETA: Will optimize the bot to the Pac Rim session to see if it's worth running it up (on paper).

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  #97 (permalink)
 bnichols 
Dartmouth NS
 
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TDSuperTrendQuantity (posted previously) parameters optimized for PacRim session on 1800 Tick data January 3, 2012 to present. Bottom line is theoretically running during the PacRim session with different parameters could add another $1400 / month to the present London/New York overlap session.

First figure, optimized performance summary showing optimal parameters; second figure, PacRim session definition for AST.

Strat performance & parameters


PacRim session definition (AST)

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  #98 (permalink)
 bnichols 
Dartmouth NS
 
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Experiencing a spot of bother with my LAN, file server appears to have gone walkabout, all the images in this thread in tow. Should be back up shortly

8:22 AM EST...back in the saddle.

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  #99 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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Bot has been long spot EUR/USD @ 1.2547 1800 Tick chart since 7 AM EST (start of session), presently up about $127, stop currently at 1.25376, but whatever my mindset is this AM haven't spotted anything so far that resembled a setup, so no trading soup for me.

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  #100 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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Interesting as ever. I often hold back from asking questions of you because they're not about your use of the chi-squared extra-leptokurtosian sanity test, but I have a few racked up so I'll lay them on you now

Don't you have the results of a blind run as well as an optimisation run with that bot you're using?

What's the indicator that writes nice labels on the left-hand side of the S/R & pivot lines on your chart? I would love to steal the code that puts them there.

Ever thought of trading the USD/Yen, since you're interested in doing something during the Pacific Rim session? If so and the answer was that you wouldn't, did you try it? Surely the volume and the spreads are bound to be better than on the Euro in that session.

And a bonus question I'm not getting any responses on on another thread, how do you feel about 1/2 ticks and their utility in forex compared to 6E?

There you go. Feel free not to answer, except the one about the indicator - about which I insist on an answer

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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