Four for four again today. Sometimes I’m wondering whether I’m pressing my luck. Well, out of town on business on Monday so maybe THAT’S the day I’d have a loser LOL. I think making this journal is helping me a lot, too, because I get to go back and review my own trades: something I had never really thought about doing. I highly recommend it.
Tried the Opening Range Breakout trade today for real. With the opening 5-min bar H/L at 5975 and 5675, respectively, I placed the buy stop and sell stop at 1 tick beyond those prices as soon as the bar closed. Got filled at the 5650 price level. Covered at a + 1.50 profit on the first half, moved the stop to B/E on the remainder and got stopped out.
Trade no. 2 at 6:47 (PST) got me short at 5625, covered half at 5475 at 6:53 and covered the other half at 5300 INTO the Michigan Sentiment report. Not a fan of trading near reports but the entry signal was good and I took advantage of the swoop down into the 6:55 report to exit the position
Forgot to capture the main screen shot on this second trade – and the ORB trade, for that matter – so I’ve included simply the entire 2-Minute worksheet and the 15-25-50 sheet as well at around that time frame.
Trade no. 3: Sold 5575 at 7:18 off the signal at cell AS186 on the third screen shot. Covered first half at 5400 at 7:23 nd the second half was stopped at B/E at 7:25. I think I’m moving my stops on the “runners” too soon. This has been a syndrome for me over the period I’ve been trading and I need to work on “bucking up” for a bit longer and taking some heat *sigh*.
Trade no 4 wasn’t till 11:24. I’m really proud of myself for sitting on my hands through the NY lunch period and “2 O’clock Balloon” period (EST) lately. It’s helped my bottom line a lot. But I do have to say, I’m a sucker for that last-hour trade and just prior to. I think if one can sit out that lunch BS, etc., they’ll add to their bottom line and will feel more confident trading the last hour, especially not trading “digging out of the hole” style for the day. Anyhow, got short again (shocker) at 1036 at 11:24 off the 2- and 3-minute cells at AI182 and AQ184 respectively. Covered half at 3425 and the other half at 3550 on a trailing stop.
Trade 1: +1.50/BE
Trade 2: +1.50/+3.25
Trade 3: +1.75/BE
Trade 4: +1.75/+.50
Net for day = + 10.25
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I’ve been at this long enough to know not to trade much on FOMC days. Thusly, I had only one trade today and sat out the entire morning and did other stuff around the house and gym, etc.
Shorted ES at 5300 at 12:10 (PST), well after the trench warfare that always ensues after the Fed announcement. Covered at 4275 at 12:54 just after the day’s gap was – finally – filled.
Net: +10.25 ES points
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Trade no. 1: ORB
Shorted the breakout of the opening 5-min bar in ES today at 9325. Was filled at 6:38 (PST). Initial stop placed at 9575. Covered ˝ the position at 9175 at 6:40. Taken out of the remaining ˝ at BE at 6:42.
Results: +1.50 (six ticks seems to be working well for init ˝ of position) and BE
Trade no. 2: Long
Stopped into the trade at 9475 at 6:48. Out of ˝ the position at 9625 at 6:51. Took myself out of the other ˝ at 9700 on the push up due to other longer-term sell signals from spreadsheet – i.e., take it when ya got it.
Results: +1.50 and +2.25
Trade no. 3: Short
Thought I was a little early on this one, but it worked out – pretty much like yesterday’s early short trade.
Shorted on a stop entry at 9800 at 7:05. Covered ˝ the position at 9650 at 7:12. Trailed the stop on the remaining finally to 9700 and was taken out at 7:26.
Results: +1.50 and +.50
I’ve included a later chart after the last trade, too, that illustrates the ADX holding the trend and why I was stupid not to hold that trade longer than I did. Plus some second sell signals on that next wave down after the retracement following the short trade at 7:05 a.m. Had some other things going on around the office, but I’m happy nonetheless with today’s results
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Well, I haven't posted here in a while, but the latest action in the SP market compels me to. It's been a pretty good couple weeks in here with this downside action. Shorting pops/rallies has been working really well for intraday, and I've got some more charts to post here to give a little insight on where this market is headed near term -- simply put: DOWN in my humble opinion, although a great trader from this board once told me: "Hap, just let the market show you where it's going; the market is always right!!"
That said, the weekly SP has pierced the 20-week moving average finally, and there was a pretty bearish candle drawn as of last night on the monthly chart.
Hope everyone is trading HAPpily....... here are some charts, exactly 3 months later.
Edited to add: Here are some fib levels to watch for based on the monthly levels:
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excellent work hap. you were absolutely right about the market heading lower. I thought we would have some more room to the upside before a major correction. I was wrong. one big mistake was I underestimated some important people. that proposal for new banking regulations is about as ........ as it gets. what's funny is, the rally started with the financials and came to an end with the financials.
as for the market I think the symmetry is still down. however I see the 1065 area as pretty important. wouldn't be surprised if we see some kind of short squeeze the next few days. especially if we break a major resistance around 1076. but if 1065 level is not holding then it's very likely the down action will continue and we'll have another leg down. possibly to low or mid 40's as an important support.