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Trading spot fx euro using price action
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Trading spot fx euro using price action

  #791 (permalink)
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ratfink View Post
You should be looking in the exact opposite direction - think maybe a maximum of 1 or 2 three hour sessions at most, with a good break ( I watch old episodes of Spooks, lol), exercise (I walk loads) and food in between. Reducing hours has made a far bigger difference for me than I could have believed (I thank @GFIs1 for his influence in this regard) and I still spend far too much time on screen but that's mostly because I remain a saddo futures.io (formerly BMT) addict.



Notice the connection. Drop the screens out of your face and the sleep and hesitation might improve too. Spend the time with the family while you have the chance, my two put on 20+ years each in what now seems like 5 minutes. In particular the excess blue wavelengths from most monitor setups are the worst, most stimulating sleep disruptive that you can find. At the very least warm the monitor settings up but best of all switch them off tea-time latest and read or play with the wife or kids.

Finding five setups that you don't take is never going to be better than finding one or two that you do.

Good luck and rest up!

OK, just installed f.lux - my screen's gone all pink. Very warm

Thanks for the tip. Interesting to see how much the men in the white coats blame on sleep deprivation. You know though - if you haven't forgotten - what a circus it is with small kids in the environment.

I was frazzled yesterday - it was a good week in terms of what I learnt and figured out, but Friday was the exception, a bit of waste of time really. I should have just coded. I then went to a meet-up of system traders to see Ernest Chan who writes the blog Quantitative Traders which was great except I didn't get to sit down all night, the beer was over 5 a pint and I didn't get near him all night. It was a sort of networking event too so there were a ton of crazies talking weird shit too. I was so glad when I got to bed.

So any tips on how to defuse the tension that builds up leading up to an entry currently causing me to miss the entry?

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #792 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
After it broke 1.3800 to the upside, I lost the plot to a certain extent. I was trying to let my subconscious tell me anything at all about the market and suddenly on a tick to a new high, I just entered long - it took me half a second to realise the only subconscious process had been the reaction to the green bar rising. What I'd wanted to feel was something good about the whole setup, so I exited.

This sounded really stupid when I re-read it.

What I was planning to do was to experience some kind of good feeling about the setup as it progressed from my intuition, which I could then interpret rationally.

Instead I suddenly found my fingers had almost automatically pulled the trigger and I found myself in a trade. It would have been surprising but I now realise that it was a direct consequence of the mistake trade I'd put on and quickly bailed out of 30 mins earlier. I think. i.e. the first trade is the hard one.

Otherwise it was just dumb letting myself enter a trade on a knee-jerk reaction to a tick up.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #793 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
So any tips on how to defuse the tension that builds up leading up to an entry currently causing me to miss the entry?

If you have an approach that you know gives you significant price areas, and in parallel you can see likely momentum shifts by any or all of price action, volume or divergence in non-correlated indicators, then you have just got to take deep breaths and pull the trigger often enough to work out if the first part of this sentence is statistically true - or whether more work remains necessary to find your edge. You can only do this if the amounts of emotional and financial capital you risk on each pull are noticeable (losses hurt a bit) but tolerable (you know it's an expected cost).

p.s. Yes I do remember the early child years, what on earth are you even thinking man!?

Travel Well
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  #794 (permalink)
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2013-10-28 Monday EU morning session


Al Brooks, Reading Price Charts BBB
26. Every bar and every series of bars is either a trend or a trading range.
Pick one. Throughout the day and especially around 8:30 A . M . PST, you
need to be deciding whether or not the day resembles any trend pattern
described in this book. If it does and you are looking to take any
trade, you must take every With Trend trade. Never consider taking
a Countertrend trade if you haven't been taking all of the With Trend
trades.

I like the way he says "you must take every With Trend trade". The main difference between Al Brooks and Lance Beggs's strategies is that with support and resistance zones, you can reasonably expect high probability counter-trend trades when the level holds. Although I should check my interpretation to make sure I'm more cautious of counter-trend trades, i.e. break-out failures and tests of levels.


forexfactory.com
 
Code
11:00 	GBP 	M	CBI Realized Sales 			33 	34 	
13:15 	USD 	M	Capacity Utilization Rate 			78.1% 	77.8% 	
	USD 	M	Industrial Production m/m 			0.5% 	0.4% 	
13:20 	GBP 	M	MPC Member Dale Speaks 					
14:00 	USD 	H	Pending Home Sales m/m

Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: 10 points (both parts) / 1% real money account size
Daily time-out: -20 points
Daily full stop: -40 points
Physical state: Good
Mental: Good
Fatigue: OK (had an extra hour sleep thanks to the DST change)
Higher Time-frame: Weekly is bullish, daily is bullish but with reservations because the rally just tailed off, and the hourly is clearly showing a lower high just now from a weak start to the week, no gap up at all. A sell-off down to 1.3770 to make a lower low would suffice to make it interesting. So ultimately unbiased with an immediate bearish tendency, but longer term bullish.
20 day volatility: (10 year max 287) 76
20 hour volatility: (10 year max 96) 16
Asian Session: 18 point range, 2 points ATR, hemmed in by 1.3800 below. Bearish due to making swing high on the 60min.
London Session: reversing the Asian range would blow my bearish theory.
Pre-Session Summary: depending on the immediate action now, either (a) bullish action right away, meaning potentially much more to come or (b) break below 1.3800, meaning a range day.
Pre-Session Psych Issues: entries & hesitation.

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Session Review

Late to the market, over an hour late. I was still doing my prep when I started getting sucked into the setup at 1 which is always stupid because then I don't do my prep properly and I don't have the best chance with the setup (because I'm not watching it full time and I'm also not fully prepped).

Consequently due to frustration at not taking it, the 1st setup looks like beauty but probably is quite normal. The first move of the EU session tends to be relatively uncomplicated in my experience, as this was.

Problem this time was just not being ready. It did seem a bit quiet which was one reason against entering, and with it being at 1.3800 and having a bearish bias from the HTF trend, I guess might not have taken it even if I'd been 100% ready.

Setup 2 - the market marched up from 1.3800 to the first resistance, put in a 3-bar-reversal and dropped back convincingly like no break-out was going to happen. Needed quick action - another one gone, was ready, wasn't ready, if you see what I mean.

I did get an entry on setup 3 as the sell-off down from the first resistance pulled back 3 points from 1.3800, so I was happy about that. The market literally went nowhere though and retraced all the way back to B/E where my stops were, and then continued to do nothing for another hour.

The market got back down to 1.3800 and hesitated there, pushing slowly down to the previous low for the day - no signals given - and then 8 points in a second to make a new low for the day, retraced slightly, and then dived even further and carried on selling off until mid-way to the support at 1.3775. It was too quick and too unusual for me, I saw the point to get in but it only lasted for a second so I had no chance with the pauses my hesitant decision-making requires.

It retraced up to the previous low at '95 and quickly dropped again for my setup 5, not making a new low and looking like it was bullish. I tried an early entry but chickened out after the strength I hoped for didn't materialize.

The market started consolidating between 1.3780 and 1.3795 so I figured it had put in the low for the day now and started looking for a long setup. Instead, it put in a doji near the top and dived down again thro the swing low. Saw it but was too bullish. That was my setup 6

The next low came at 1.3775 low, same as Friday, and it did put in the right kind of PA for a break-out failure, asking me to go long, but I wanted a retrace to the low and a double bottom. Instead it put in two legs up and I figured there was a 3rd one coming so I got long there and immediately took more heat than I liked, and it sat on my stop for a few minutes before moving back up. When the leg up failed to make a new high, that made it all look bearish so I bailed.

I have to go now so no more chances.

Lessons Learnt

Down by 2 or 3 points per trade but still just satisfied I took some entries.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #795 (permalink)
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2013-10-29 Tuesday EU morning session


Al Brooks, Reading Price Charts BBB
The best signal bars are trend bars in the direction of your trade. Doji
bars are one bar trading ranges and therefore terrible signal bars. You
will lose if you buy above a trading range in a bear or sell below one in
a bull.

I don't really agree with that. I think they can make good signals, when the doji represents a turn-around, especially from a small move against my bias to an expected start in the direction of the bias. So in the right context. Obviously not a context that Al Brooks uses.


forexfactory.com
 
Code
07:00 	EUR 	M	GfK German Consumer Climate 
09:30 	GBP 	M	Net Lending to Individuals m/m
	GBP 	L	M4 Money Supply m/m
	GBP 	L	Mortgage Approvals 	
12:30 	USD 	H	Core Retail Sales m/m
	USD 	H	PPI m/m 
	USD 	H	Retail Sales m/m
	USD 	M	Core PPI m/m 
13:00 	USD 	M	S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
14:00 	USD 	H	CB Consumer Confidence
	USD 	L	Business Inventories m/m

Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: 10 points (both parts) / 1% real money account size
Daily time-out: -20 points
Daily full stop: -40 points
Physical state: Good
Mental: Good
Fatigue:
Higher Time-frame: the lower high of the yesterday morning held, surprising since it was in the Asian session. That makes it all look a bit bearish in the immediate term. Even on the daily, it looks as if there could be a lower low today.
20 day volatility: (10 year max 287) 74 - getting lower and lower. I read that the QE and loose money supply / stimulus suppresses volatility.
20 hour volatility: (10 year max 96) 14
Asian Session: 25 point range, 3.5 points ATR which is big, from some volatility early on around midnight. Non-directional.
London Session: Might have started early with a push up to within 3 points of the Asian high.
Pre-Session Summary: HTF pointing immediately down, but longer term still up. Looks like it might get choppy with the unusual PA.
Pre-Session Psych Issues: I identified from yesterday's trading that the least work and the max profit would have come from taking the setups early. I find the entry and the subsequent minutes until it goes into profit twice as stressful as managing a profitable position. I also wasted a lot of energy trying to fit my setups onto what the market was doing, i.e. stupid thoughts.

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Session Review

Made the effort to haul myself out of bed at the first beep of the alarm clock and was sitting in front of the screen hoping for a trade like yesterday's opening setup, but by the time prep work was done the market had already put a bull move in. It didn't get to the resistance level above but continued to meander for another 2 hours.

Reviewing yesterday's trades caused an overreaction - another lesson for the price of a few hard-earned quid today.

I nailed the first setup almost perfectly. At least that bit was right. I had the first target set at the bottom of the support zone because I have 3 lines of support in this zone - the first being a 60min swing low at 5:00am, the second being the Asian low, and the 3rd a 60min swing low from last week. The target got hit on the same bar.

So far so good but then I gave the 2nd part far too much room, thinking a retrace all the way to the break-out and back would be reasonable to expect. I think now in hindsight, it is reasonable to expect a retrace all the way to the break-out and that's what we got, but I had my stop literally 1 point too close and got taken out.

Initially I had the stops at the 1.3772 but then due to the S/R indicator invalidating the 3 60min S/R lines that made up the support zone that had just been broken, the only S/R level left was the Asian low, a couple of points lower. So I moved my stop down 2 points. Fatal mistake.

But that aside, I should have heeded the price action more, which did look really bullish down at the low with lots of tails hanging down. The 3rd green candle should have been all I allowed it, and if that hadn't gone on to form a swing high, I should have bailed there. It was right below the EMA and approx 8 points from the low just like the previous swing high, so that was definitely the exit point for the trade.

But I was oblivious and stayed in and it started going wrong. I got hit to the pip practically on the stop - only had it 1.5 points above the expected retrace level - the Asian low - but needed 2.5 points. I think that's one way of being a real dick for a tick.

My intent today was to implement my plan more rigorously and that meant taking trades when the setups first signalled an entry. I was too keen to do that at setup 2. The market hardly showed any pull-back after rallying back to the Asian low. I had just one small red range candle. Then the market pushed up and took out the stop on the part 2 short from earlier.

I have seen brief, uncomplicated setups that are valid, and it had 3 candles, so I took the long entry (nicely done! ). However I made 2 logical errors.

- I was now going long counter-trend on the flimsiest setup
- my premise was that the good rally from the low would just carry on virtually uninterrupted but instead of bailing when that was proved false, I gave it the full scope to retrace as if it was a solid with-trend trade on a normal setup.

Should have had more room on the part 2 short stop (2 points) and should have waited for more signs of a trend change or stronger signals to go long, and then anyway have been really tight.

It didn't cost me very much but it annihilated the profit from part 1 of the first trade and some...

I missed setup 3, the market had lulled me to sleep. I didn't see that it was on the low, just had a vague idea it looked bullish but decided to wait until it was at a level, not realising it already was.

Setup 4 looked bearish and I almost got short but the news interrupted the setup. I didn't expect such a bounce and I should hold back when Forex Factory marks it as High Impact. Would have had my stops hit straight out if I had been in.

The retrace back up to 1.3770 was sweet, I thought this all looked pretty bullish but I guess I misjudged how much it likes this range. I can't see any reason why it had to come back so far. The failure to continue of the big red bar on the 12:30 news was bullish for me, but I guess it can also be read as a range-bound reaction. I had also read the choppy grinding sell-off earlier back down to the low of the day as a sign of a trend change - but I know a trend doesn't have to change from bearish to bullish, it might just turn sideways

Setup 5 - tried a long position, still not working. Ouch. Can't get my head around this being a range. Should have been a lot tighter with the stop. Also probably a bit trigger happy now, but that's debatable. However there's not much evidence pointing towards a break-out of the range, so maybe this was not a high probability trade. And also most importantly, I didn't wait for 3 bars (I pretended to myself this was still setup 4) and I didn't wait for a good signal.

Setup 6 - seriously bullish PA but no, still nothing. Not quite so painful, but still hurt. Same issue - no evidence I can see for the range to break, and not a high probability trade, and arguably no show of strength.

It then dropped back down on huge volatility to test the low of the day but never made it, I missed the possible long entry doing other things, and then it rocketed up.

As it broke the high of the day upwards at 1.3790, it looked good for the setup but I couldn't get myself into the trade, wasn't 100% watching it - in retrospect, not good to try trading with only half my attention. But basically I couldn't close the screen down and stop with those big bullish bars.


Lessons Learnt

At setup 2 I was thinking rigidly "take the setup, take the setup, take the setup". My brain was too full - I had the part 2 stop to manage still, and I had too much emphasis on taking the trade. Apparently the pre-frontal cortex (where we think) can only keep 7 or 8 thoughts current, so obviously this had pushed out the analysis part from focus. I deliberately took the trade instead of hesitating a moment to think about it.

Bad terminology - it's not 'hesitation' when I need to go over the main points of my bias / PA analysis, but it should be automatic enough that it doesn't turn into hesitation and analysis paralysis.

At setup 2 again, I made the mistake of trading someone else's plan. I'd just been reading someone's journal, and an entry where they'd described the stress reliever that having a plan is. Great! But I need my plan, not their plan OK admittedly their trading method is very similar to mine but their particular position management isn't.

With setup 5 and 6, I could benefit from a way of spotting when a range is going to break.

I've slept on it now and I thought about it while getting up. Basically after the first trade my decision-making went to hell. Until I can take every trade in the same way as the first trade, I'm only going to trade live money on the first trade, and for the second trade and after I'll trade in the sim account.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.

Last edited by Adamus; October 30th, 2013 at 08:26 AM. Reason: more details
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  #796 (permalink)
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2013-10-30 Wednesday EU morning session


Quoting 
28. You will not make consistent money until you stop trading Countertrend
scalps. You will win often enough to keep you trying to
improve your technique, but over time your account will slowly
disappear

Change 'Countertrend scalps' to 'range break-outs' and that describes me.


forexfactory.com
 
Code
Unsc. 	EUR 	M	German Prelim CPI m/m 
08:00 	EUR 	M	Spanish Flash GDP q/q 
08:55 	EUR 	M	German Unemployment Change 
09:10 	EUR 	L	Retail PMI 	
Tent. 	EUR 	M	Italian 10-y Bond Auction 
Tent. 	EUR 	M	German 10-y Bond Auction 
12:15 	USD 	H	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
12:30 	USD 	H	Core CPI m/m
	USD 	M	CPI m/m
14:30 	USD 	M	Crude Oil Inventories 
18:00 	USD 	H	FOMC Statement 					
	USD 	M	Federal Funds Rate

Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: 10 points (both parts) / 1% real money account size
Daily time-out: -20 points
Daily full stop: -40 points
Physical state: OK
Mental: really annoyed but it's got nothing to do with trading. Hopefully it won't have any effect.
Fatigue: OK
Higher Time-frame: Possibilities seem to be wide open now for either a reversal of this move down, the creation of a consolidation range, or further sell-off. Guess the consolidation range is most likely.
20 day volatility: (10 year max 287) 74 and still falling
20 hour volatility: (10 year max 96) 17.5
Asian Session: 17 point range, 2.5 points ATR so quite choppy and formless, no bias.

Pre-Session Summary: No bias today except for a range day
Pre-Session Psych Issues: Only first trade with money, further trades in sim account.

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Session Review

No trades today, feeling a bit risk-averse after yesterday's lessons.

I observed 4 setups today and only came close to taking 1 of them.

Setup 1 was too quick and the third candle ended up 10 points from the break-out already so it felt like chasing. There was minor pull-back immediately after the third candle, giving an entry signal on the 1-min chart, just a small doji, but I failed to take it since it wasn't strong - didn't get an up-tick to break the signal bar for 3 mins and gave up. Good / bad - not sure.

Seems to me that opening moves are mostly strong moves without big pull-backs, and this move went nowhere and ranged for 3 hours. So the first sign of a big pull-back - if I'd been in a position - would have signalled an exit. Need to check that.

Setup 2 came with the news at 12:15 and 12:30. This is the setup I almost took, after the 12:30 news release the bid/ask spread opened up but the market didn't really move, it put in a lame swing high and looked pretty bearish. As I was about to enter, instead of down-ticking it went back up and repeated the last 2 candles on the 1-min. Citing poor experience with range trades, I stood aside. With hindsight though, that is a really bearish tail sticking up on that candle between the news events - should have gone for it. Valid point though about the range trading, but it was a nice sell-off afterwards.

Setup 3 - I left it well alone since it was in the middle of the day's range, although again, point worth noting, the big tail sticking down was pretty bullish. Eventually a nice move.

Setup 4 seemed like a bit of a repeat of setup 2 except without the bearish tail up above. Didn't come close to pulling the trigger. Caught myself every time, although I was running out of concentration at that point.

Lessons Learnt

A bit about range trading. Still feel I'm missing some price action knowledge about range trading.

I know a range day has trouble breaking out of its opening range, I know it's meant to seem 'sluggish', I know I'm meant to buy low, sell high. Still not sure about the position management strategy. If I keep a tight stop, I'll never stay in until it hits the target, and if I give it room, it's just as likely to turn round and take out the stop, low probability trading I reckon.

The opening move here failed at 1.3765 without hitting resistance. Worth checking into, to see if this is indicative.

Guess a couple more sessions like this will help me get more comfortable with it.

The best set-up today? setup 2 obviously

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.

Last edited by Adamus; October 31st, 2013 at 03:23 AM.
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  #797 (permalink)
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I came across your thread in my search for other traders using the same method as me and it just so happens you're one of them. I'm interested in sharing ideas about the method by Lance Beggs and eventually becoming a better trader as a result. It's nice to have found someone using the same method trading the same currency pair as me. Anyway, I thought I would leave a message here in case you would like to collaborate and share ideas.

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  #798 (permalink)
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Thank you for replying promptly, I've just tried to reply but apparently I can't send private messages yet so could you send me your email address in a private message? I will send you a reply by email.

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2013-11-01 Friday EU morning session


Al Brooks, Reading Price Charts BBB
30. You will not make money trading reversals until you wait for a break
of a significant trendline and then for a strong reversal bar on a test of
the trend's extreme.

That's an interesting observation. Brooks uses 5-min bars. I have a setup based on trendlines (or triangles) where a break of the line requires me to wait for the signal on the 1-min chart and it's definitely not a strong reversal bar - that would be a signal but it would trash the R:R ratio in most cases. Note to self: worth looking into again.

Either that or bigger stronger trendlines getting broken would be equivalent to an S/R level.


forexfactory.com
 
Code
00:56 	CNY 	H	Manufacturing PMI
01:45 	CNY 	M	HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
AllDay 	EUR 		French Bank Holiday
AllDay 	EUR 		Italian Bank Holiday
09:30 	GBP 	H	Manufacturing PMI
13:00 	USD 	L	Final Manufacturing PMI
13:10 	USD 	H	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
14:00 	USD 	H	ISM Manufacturing PMI
	USD 	L	ISM Manufacturing Prices 
AllDay 	USD 	L	Total Vehicle Sales

Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: 10 points (both parts) / 1% real money account size
Daily time-out: -20 points
Daily full stop: -40 points
Physical state: OK. Hungry. Not eaten yet.
Mental: OK.
Fatigue: Better but nowhere near perfect.
Higher Time-frame: Serious sell-off. Back into the consolidation zone of three weeks ago. So is it over? Will the Euro bounce back up today? A possibility. The other is more sell-off. The fundamentals elude me at the moment. Is the focus now on how crap EU economy is, and has the market factored in the latest Fed QE? Don't know. I should read a decent forex / economic blog but I don't know one.
20 day volatility: (10 year max 287) 81
20 hour volatility: (10 year max 96) 21
Asian Session: 50 point range, 2.9 points ATR. Carried on the sell-off, possibly stopped by the Chinese news.

Pre-Session Summary: With the US time zone being now one hour more ahead of the EU, the volatility in the morning kicks off an hour earlier (I have no idea why - must be the computers). Probably a range day in the making. The first move just completed, reversing from '50 back up to the wide resistance zone from '67 to '74. Definite bearish bias to the range day though, i.e. if range trading, only try it going short.
Pre-Session Psych Issues: Identified a hole in my trading plan yesterday that I have to define, re initial stop placement, probably one of the reasons I screw up sometimes. Also still have the issue with 2nd trades (and 3rd etc), so only one real trade today, if any.

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Session Review

I was pretty out of touch with the market today, what follows is just a series of missed opportunities or non-opportunities.

Had more problems with data in Ninja, started it up and found a big gap so wasted time reporting it to the guys at Ninja support who are monitoring it (or hoping it will go away, whichever way you look at it). Not as bad as yesterday though. Also wasted time discussing the morning volatility daylight saving "non-shift". Plus I guess I was being a bit slack knowing that everything had already kicked off before I dragged my hide out of bed at 5:30.

So I started late, missing the opening move again (I mean not even seeing it happen as opposing to failing to enter an order).

My setup 1 is the second move of the session as it tested resistance above quite weakly - look at all those lower tails on the rally - every 4 bars almost. That's a hindsight observation, didn't occur to me live. I was actually technically too late for this setup anyway. I said already how I managed to start so late and that was even without breakfast. Had to work hard at not regretting that one.

The sell-off ploughed through '50 like it didn't exist so I figured my guess of a range day was way off. For setup 2 it hit the Asian low at '39.5 and dabbed the brakes, but it wasn't enough for me to get in - could have done - we had 3 bars, one in the middle was a pull-back, the 3rd was the display of bearish strength, but then I would have had to have my sell stop ready and waiting below that bar to get stopped in and of course I didn't.

Setup 3 came 25 points lower as it pulled back in front of an old support line from early October. There was a nice show of bullishness as a bull bar sent down a tail just after the swing. I wasn't looking to go counter-trend though, I've got some sort of mental block which says my first trade has to be a regular with-trend setup. Probably all those Al Brooks quotes I've been putting here.

Setup 4 was fine in retrospect, nailing the resistance at the Asian low to the pip. Guess this one was too quick and the volatility a bit too much, risk too much, stress too much. I guess I'm just lacking the guts today. I moved around a bit, not as strong as before, but still hit target, where it bounced back quickly and smoothly, so there was no real setup to speak about.

I then got hacked off and left it for a while, and came back to find it hadn't moved for an hour. While trying to get a decent analysis on it, it put in that quick push and retreat up to test resistance again - guess I could twist it a bit to say that it was setup 5 which Beggs calls a 'complex pull-back' but the risk on the entry bar would have been huge - not out of this world or even bad R:R, just more than I can stomach.

It then ground its way down to the low of the day and started putting in all sorts of bullish PA while still moving lower. I almost got in long for setup 6 after the higher low at the down-up pair at 12:15 because it seriously looked good for a rally. I had a limit order in place at '10 which was touched but not executed. Guess I was getting braver.

Instead it broke the low of the day for setup 7 but actually there was a sort-of news event where an Fed guy was speaking and I had no idea how long he was going to speak for, but it was flagged as high impact on forexfactory.com so I stayed on the sidelines til 13:30.

By then it had crawled down to '00 and was still showing bullish signs for setup 8, but carrying on lower - not sure what to make of that sort of PA - but I had no chance to do anything until 14:00 when again, there was a high impact news event and so no trades.

I would have allowed myself a consolation setup 9 after the news bar where often a triangle is formed as the volatility spike dies off - an additional setup that's not in the Beggs YTC manual. But it didn't pan out and dropped through the line. The triangle looks more convincing on the 1min chart.

Lessons Learnt

Will try to replay this session bar by bar if they have it on the ninja website. Pretty disappointed that I didn't do anything.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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Weekly Review


Just going over the stuff from last week. Too much material to work with really.

Anyway, this is a screenshot of the opening setup from Friday. The opening setups for EU business hours are usually really straight-forward so I was surprised to see a nasty trap on this one. Would be a great test of mastery to recover from the trap and still be with it enough to catch the trigger entry long.

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