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Trading spot fx euro using price action
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Trading spot fx euro using price action

  #751 (permalink)
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2013-06-06 Thursday sim trading session

Lost my notes again. Thought I had it copied in the clipboard but when I got there, the clipboard was bare. Rats. Here are the images anyway.

No trades today anyway - no sleep last night. On the subject of trades it looks like my screenshots yesterday showed trades from both accounts - possibly because I had disconnected from IB when I printed them. Some of the trades are just messing around in the Ninja sim account, not the IB sim account which I reserve for serious sim trading. One of the messing-around trades was to see what the numbers look like when I trade $100M - just 3 points nets quite a lot of $$$$.

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You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #752 (permalink)
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shopster View Post
Ldn session.

new " short pendings " filled on the move back to the money line.

pin bar up for the new shorts.
a stop blow.

a "dark zone " retrace setup for the fib extension exits.

up elevator to the 6.9 exit in the Ny session

.38 retrace to flat water.

cheers,

s

I appreciate your post but you're talking a different language here. Are you an ex-pit trader or something? It's not all about fibs is it? Don't use them myself. I even had to look up "pendings" to work out you meant your own orders

Don't get me wrong, I love it when people write on my journal, but I seriously don't get what you said.

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  #753 (permalink)
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Congratulations Adamus


Hi Adamus,

First of all congratulations for your Journal. You have been doing it very consistently and detail for a long time. You have also improved as you go, now having a trading plan. Thats great commitment.

I am also a follower of Al Brooks, and I only trade his method. I am beginner, just reading his book/webinar, and video course over the last 3 months, but it has significantly transformed my trading.

What time frame do you use for taking the trades? I see that you post 60m, 3m and 1m. But which one are you using for the swing stops, Profit targets, etc. Based on the results that you post on your trades, it seems like the 1m, as your targets are rather small (most recent profits about +15) and stops at around -10 pips.

Thanks and the best to you

Hector

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  #754 (permalink)
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hectormas View Post
Hi Adamus,

First of all congratulations for your Journal. You have been doing it very consistently and detail for a long time. You have also improved as you go, now having a trading plan. Thats great commitment.

I am also a follower of Al Brooks, and I only trade his method. I am beginner, just reading his book/webinar, and video course over the last 3 months, but it has significantly transformed my trading.

What time frame do you use for taking the trades? I see that you post 60m, 3m and 1m. But which one are you using for the swing stops, Profit targets, etc. Based on the results that you post on your trades, it seems like the 1m, as your targets are rather small (most recent profits about +15) and stops at around -10 pips.

Thanks and the best to you

Hector

Hi Hector, I place the S/R levels on the 60 min chart and then switch to the 3-min which I use most of the time to observe approaches to set-ups and movement between levels and for managing positions.

I place stops based on the volatility and the likelihood that the market is going to bounce around the set-up zone - although I try to bail out on bad PA before the stops get hit.

I use the next S/R level as the first target, and the next after that as the 2nd target.

The 1-min chart is for timing within set-ups. However it is very seductive to my subconscious to sit there and watch the PA on the 1-min. Often in reality the 1-min PA is meaningless. However during set-ups it is normally useful for judging the moment when the balance changes from net buying to selling or vice-versa. That is the point I try to identify for entry on the 1-min.

To counter-act the 1-min price action addiction that I suffer, I have 2 rules:

(1) after an entry, I watch the 1-min price bar finish and then the whole of the next candle, and then at that close-point I must switch back to the 3-min chart (unless I'm negotiating an exit).

(2) I am not allowed to switch to the 1-min chart or make an entry at a set-up before the 3rd 3-min candle.

Good luck with your trading. I think everyone should start a journal. Public declarations of intent (to trade well in my case) are proven to improve your will power.

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  #755 (permalink)
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AB's Price Action

Thanks for the explanation.

I was asking because some of the slides from AB's training program talks to how difficult it is to trade the 1 Min time frame.

Here are his slides. Please take this as feedback, not as a critique to your method. He recommends trading the 5Min or higher. I personally trade ES and DAX using the 5 and 15Min, and Currencies using 15Min.

Thanks

Hector

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Trading spot fx euro using price action-1minfail.png   Trading spot fx euro using price action-1minfail2.png  
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  #756 (permalink)
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2013-06-07 Friday sim trading session


Quote for today
Pay attention to the risk of surprise events such as crop reports, freezes, floods, currency interventions and wars. Most of the time there is some manifestation of the potential. Don't overtrade in markets where these kinds of events are possible. -- Bruce Babcock


forexfactory.com
 
Code
07:00 	EUR 	Med	German Trade Balance
07:45 	EUR 	Low	French Gov Budget Balance
	EUR 	Low	French Trade Balance
09:30 	GBP 	Med	Consumer Inflation Expectations
	GBP 	Med	Trade Balance
11:00 	EUR 	Med	German Industrial Production m/m
13:30 	USD 	High	Non-Farm Employment Change
	USD 	High	Unemployment Rate
	USD 	Med	Average Hourly Earnings m/m
20:00 	USD 	Low	Consumer Credit m/m

Starting equity: GBP 94,225 (sim)
Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: 10 points (both halves) / 1% real money account size
Daily time-out: -20 points
Daily full stop: -40 points
Physical state: OK
Mental: stressed, at least showing signs physically but I can't feel it
Fatigue: bad but not rock bottom
Higher Time-frame: Bullish, 50 points away from yesterday's peak - reasonable possibilities include: (1) a quiet inside day - (2) another trend day up undoubtedly not as big though - (3) a medium bear trend candle, retracing maybe 50% at most
20 day volatility: 111 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility: 27 (10 year max 96)
Asian Session: volatile at ATR=5, range = 33 though. Lots of tails and overlap. Hugging 1.3250
London Session: no initial Asian reversal, mostly v-shaped swing points, respecting S/R but ranging.
Pre-Session Summary: HTF bull trend, day's range bounded by S/R below but not above, price interaction at S/R drawn out. Short trends probably choppy. Long trends more fluid.
Pre-Session Psych Issues: Have to be wary of creeping emotional build-up, and be definite that each decision is a rational decision, not an emotional one (not suppressing emotions, but managing them)

Session Review

Lots of action but no activity possible for the 1st 2 hours.

When volatility finally sank back down to tradable levels, the market had reached the retracement I thought it should and I was therefore biased long

Set-up 1 was the termination of a broad trend channel downwards which I only saw in hindsight - might have got me long for a break-out failure but at the time I struggled with the large stops needed because of the volatility, combined wth the lower low made. Also should have kept an eye on the 3-min candles for a nice entry point. 2 hints missed.

Set-up 2 came as we headed back up and I fully expected the bulls to manage this - double bottom, HTF bullish, volatility falling - but not signal to alert me so I missed out and only thought about shorting once the little hammer doji was broken at 14:48 but that felt like chasing.

It came down nicely for set-up 3 and tested the lows, and looked set to rally from a spring signal but it was a trap and the trap candle was meciless - got stopped out on the full whack.

I hesitated with a reverse trade - I could have gone short at the bottom of the next candle - but it wasn't quite convincing enough for me so I was lucky. The retrace was good though, and I saw a channel break in there too. However I got stopped out by a large lower tail during the 20EMA cross-over. That was evil. Even theoretically I have to admit I can't see a way I should have taken that heat. OK technically it was a counter-trend trade and I could have painted a wide channel back upwards to define my risk.

Set-up 4 was again a set-up for a break upwards thro 1.3225 and in hindsight it looks good - again, the trend channel would have helped with this volatility going on. I think I was just blind to short signals anyway.

Set-up 5 was my redemption, got back the points I'd lost - maybe I should have questioned whether this was a good enough set-up though. Technically it was a good entry, a bit late maybe, but in theory it could easily have just glued itself to 1.3200 and stopped me out in choip.

Set-up 6 was the 4th attempt to break upwards - deja vue. I had the previous position part 2 trade still on and I thought it might rally, but the candle that rallied up wasn't broken so my entry didn't happen. I'm glad, I'm not sure I would have bailed on the failure to carry on up, might have left the stops to get hit, felt like I had a bit of decision fatigue setting in. Need to watch out for this.

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Set-up 3: -5.5 & -5.5
Set-up 3: -2 & -0.5
Set-up 5: +15 & +10
Commissions: -7.5
Total: +4

Lessons Learnt

Need to pay more attention to with-trend / counter-trend situation affecting distance required for stops.
Need to use trend channels more in volatile and choppy trends
Need to watch out for decision fatigue - especially dangerous for letting losses run.

Got a page full of notes of things that I need to take care of just from today, not sure when I'm meant to find time to do that. Might have to take a day off the trading schedule and devote it to the things-to-do list.

The best set-up today? Set-up 1 is most interesting

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  #757 (permalink)
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hectormas View Post
Thanks for the explanation.

I was asking because some of the slides from AB's training program talks to how difficult it is to trade the 1 Min time frame.

Here are his slides. Please take this as feedback, not as a critique to your method. He recommends trading the 5Min or higher. I personally trade ES and DAX using the 5 and 15Min, and Currencies using 15Min.

Thanks

Hector


Hector,

I seriously think I answered those criticisms, don't you? I'm not saying Al Brooks is wrong, far from it - I totally agree - because I only use the 1-min time-frame in limited situations for the reasons I described, and I find the points Al Brooks makes are exactly what the danger is - hence my rules for keeping away from the 1-min time-frame when not required by my plan.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #758 (permalink)
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Not trading today, too much to catch up on, too little time. Trading unprepared is not so beneficial as doing all the other non-trading stuff I realise I need to do to improve.

Excellent posts on the PandaWarrior Chronicles, keeping them here for my convenience:


tigertrader View Post
I used to tell him ( in no uncertain terms) that he would never be profitable if he continued do what made him feel comfortable, rather than what was the correct thing to do - and that he needed to reprogram his behavior. Which is exactly, what I think he has accomplished. I read his reply to the OP's post, and it was spot on. However, his transformation did not take place overnight.

In Brian's case, he knew that he was doing certain things incorrectly, (and I was always kind enough to point them out to him). But he wasn't emotionally ready to stop what he was doing wrong, and change his behavior. He needed to confront the challenge head-on, in his own way. And, through trial-and-error and perseverance, he appears to have accomplished this goal.

Trading cannot only be a negative game financially, but emotionally. The highs are high, and lows are low, but the highs never seem to reach the same heights , that the lows sink to. Trading is full of such asymmetries that make it an emotionally negative sum preposition. The problem is that human nature does not operate to maximize gain, but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. And the market is quick to reinforce this tendency; as most small profits often tend to vanish, the market teaches you to cash them in before they get away.

Of course, in the short run, this makes the trader, feel like a winner. He is enjoying a success rate, with a lot of winning trades and small losers, but in the long run he hasn't shown a profit. Interestingly, some of my biggest months P&L wise, have been accompanied by my lowest winning percentages. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic. Quite simply, its not important whether you are long or short, but how much, and for how long, you are long or short.

Taking premature profits is an attempt to make current positions more likely to succeed, to the severe detriment of long term performance. It is also quite a normal tendency. The St. Petersburg Paradox teaches us that people consistently prefer to lock in a sure win rather than accept a gamble with a higher expected payoff. These evidently instinctive human tendencies, contain more than a drop of poison for the trader who cuts his winners short. It in fact, prohibits him from attaining profitability. This reality alone, should provide any trader, in his right mind, the motivation to resist the temptation to abbreviate his winners.

That being said, you need to develop a trading plan, whose criteria, will lead you to profitability, which includes:a realistic profit expectation, based on current volatility and type of day(range, trend). ATR, ADR, SD, value areas, will help you to determine optimal risk reward parameters. Only then, can you confront your problem head-on.


PandaWarrior View Post
I was usually pissed off at tigertrader after one of these exchanges.....I still am a little bit...not really but it was very uncomfortable for someone to tell me I was doing something wrong and to reprogram myself without giving specifics as to what to do exactly. I am not a person that grasps hidden meanings well. And tigertrader seemed to often have hidden meanings....like the truth was hiding in plain sight but I couldn't see it.

Frustration was very high at this point. I knew I needed to change something but couldn't figure out what it was and He wouldn't tell me clearly. I nearly blacklisted him from my thread. I'm glad I didn't. I am still working on stuff to be sure, but feel I am finally on the right track.

Some of this you need to come to the realization on your own. Other stuff you can be taught. But the teaching can't be done effectively until you are actually ready to learn.....and we rarely are ready to learn when we say we are...

I think it was Al Brooks that said "sometimes you just have to hold your nose and enter". That seems to be true 100% of the time.

Think about the 95% that fail. What is the classic wisdom taught to the masses? Think about the so called truths you think you know. Write them down on a piece of paper. Then ask yourself, "what if I did the opposite"? What would happen? Write this down. Really think about it. Answer the questions......

What if you sold support instead of buying it? What if you never went break even? What if you never trailed your stop until you would rather be in a trade the opposite direction? What if you scaled in instead of out? What if you tripled your stop. What if you quit worrying about your homework, your bias and just went with the flow. What if you could never use indicators again? What if you put your entry where your stop would otherwise go? What if you took profits where others are just getting in? What if there were no stops and no targets allowed, you had to physically push the button to get out. How would this change your thought process? What if your broker would only allow you one trade a day. What would you do differently?

What if?

I'm not saying you should do all those things, I am saying you should think about them in regards to how YOU trade.

A trade plan is made up of three parts:

1. A defined edge for entry. you do have one correct?
2. A defined edge for exit for both profit and losses. I call this risk and profit management. One that is based on something other than,OMG, I think I need to get out!!!!! You have this correct?
3. A defined edge for money management. (this does not mean your stop placement) If you don't know what money management is, time to stop trading and figure it out.

Of the three, 2 and 3 are the most important. The entry can be random if you do 2&3 correct, you will make money.

If you do not have a method that you can categorically lean on for all three aspects of the trading plan, you shouldn't be trading at all. A lack of any one of these three will cause you to constantly second guess yourself and you will end up taking 6 ticks when you should have had 60. Or loosing 60 ticks when you should have lost 6.

This is a losers game. Your job is to figure out how to lose the least and maximize not your opportunity for gain but to maximize the actual gains you find yourself in.......like tigertrader said, its all about HOW MUCH and HOW LONG you are long or short.


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  #759 (permalink)
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2013-06-11 Tuesday sim trading session


forexfactory.com
 
Code
00:01 	GBP 	Low	RICS House Price Balance
All Day	CNY 		Bank Holiday 					
Day 1 	EUR 	High	German Constitutional Court Ruling 					
09:30 	GBP 	High	Manufacturing Production m/m
	GBP 	Low	Industrial Production m/m
??????	GBP 	Low	10-y Bond Auction
12:30 	USD 	Low	NFIB Small Business Index
15:00 	GBP 	Med	NIESR GDP Estimate
	USD 	Low	Wholesale Inventories m/m

Starting equity: GBP 94,249 (sim)
Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: 10 points (both halves) / 1% real money account size
Daily time-out: -20 points
Daily full stop: -40 points
Physical state: OK
Mental: OK
Fatigue: Workable
Higher Time-frame: rally from July 2012 still on - aiming for previous swing highs at 1.33, 1.34, 1.35 & 1.37 although it made heavy weather breaking up through 1.34 last time.
20 day volatility: 109 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility: 23 (10 year max 96)
Asian Session: Virtually dead until 04:00 when it shot up. Range 45 points, volatility 5 points. Then tail off back half-way. Small swings excepts for the big rally, not choppy.
Pre-Session Summary: HTF trend up with 2 days of consolidation.
Pre-Session Psych Issues: Potential hesitation now that I've locked down the impatience (i.e. I might be going too far)
Session Review

Definitely a range day up until the US opening.

Set-up 1 was not good. We were in the middle of the Asian range and the first push up after the open got nowhere at all really and the whole Asian close / European open thing only works when it's at the Asian high or low already. I thought this one here might unfold like a pull-back or a break-out of it's own high. The PA was nowhere near convincing enough to take an entry, and the failure didn't occur to me but doesn't look good in hindsight either, in terms of PA or result.

Set-up 2 was also no good, I figured the volatility had kicked in and a break of the opening range low would have enough fuel to break down past '50 and hit the Asian low for 10 points, but it didn't play out.

Set-up 3 was another poor set-up that I wasn't going to trade but actually it turned out quite easy to trade. By that time though I was using my other sim account which I don't count as serious. It started out as a pull-back, which would be low probability in trend inside a range, but then we got 3 dojis and some strong consolidation, and it was obviously bullish from the sharp mini-rallies interspersed with long slow lazy gentle sell-offs - 3 cycles like that before it just went totally flat.

Set-up 4 showed the market decelerating into R and it put up 3 funny tails which made the bulls look weak, and then it just sat at the high for about a minute and didn't break higher but came down, which also looked weak. Guess I was wrong because the bears couldn't manage much either and I mistrusted the spring signal on bar 241 - it didn't look as strong on the 1-min chart.

Set-up 5 was really quick as failures / tests often are and I'm not used to it. Should have dived in as the 2nd candle closed and the 3rd broke below it. (bar 243)

Set-up 6 was pure volatile chop but I thought it might do the same as 5 - but then it just didn't do anything interesting and my session was over.

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Lessons Learnt

Don't know what I learnt by not taking any trades. Maybe set-up 5 is something I have to look at more closely with the quick test of a level.

The best set-up today? set-up 3 or set-up 5

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.

Last edited by Adamus; June 12th, 2013 at 04:16 AM.
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2013-06-13 Thursday sim trading session


Lost my notes again today due to closing the browser by mistake. I'm doing this too often so I'll have to change the way I write them - use wordpad or something.

Anyway, I didn't trade yesterday. I am trying to increase my discipline by denying myself the trading session if I'm not ready to start on time - either the morning session or the afternoon session. This week I'm on the morning sessions where I have far more problems in this area.

I traded today but didn't have any trades. Missed 2 through hesitation. I think this is the corollary to impatience. I had to come down so hard on my impatience that I'm now making myself hesitant to enter at good set-ups. It wasn't helped by the fact that most of the session was in down-trend when the higher time-frame is bullish. That made the market more choppy and difficult to trust.

I put on a long position in a seperate sim account to catch the potential swing back up, as on the 60min chart. Survived a push down almost onto the stop, but still looks a bit doomed. I placed the stop on the same basis that I place my max bid on eBay i.e. it will break under 1.3300, and probably get down to 1.3290, and if so then probably also 1.3287'5, so I put it at 1.3286'5. Guess that is exactly how the market works

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There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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