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Trading spot fx euro using price action
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Trading spot fx euro using price action

  #711 (permalink)
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OK, I see what you mean - the reason why I ignored the pattern was that I will generally only notice the pattern if the candles are bigger than the 20 bar average. Plus the fact that there are 3 full candles next to each other there would have thrown me off the scent too.

Also I wouldn't go counter-trend at that point - too soon for me, in terms of skill levels.

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  #712 (permalink)
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Week 19 Review

I noticed a distinct improvement in my entries on Thurs and Fri and I put this down directly to the improvements I implemented recently.

(1) I use the 1-min time-frame to observe PA during a set-up, but as soon as the entry is made, I allow the PA to complete - on the entry candle and the subsequent 1-min candle, but then I switch back to the trading time-frame - the 3-min.

(2) I don't move stops to B/E, I move them to a point defined by PA, unless I really need to do something quick, e.g. with the 2nd part stop.

(3) Mid-range set-ups on range days are not high probability set-ups, so I don't take them unless the PA is really convincing - that means the PA and not the FOMO

(4) I only make an entry on the 3rd 3-min candle or later, to avoid FOMO and acting out of impatience.

(5) Checklist implementation is working - I tick off the first 6 points on the list and then I can place an entry order - away from the action - and then I tick off the last 2 points and I can bring the entry stop into action.

(6) I use targets for both parts of the trade and I don't take the part 2 target off. I manage part 2 as per the plan - I give the market more room with the part 2 stop.

(7) If I have a big S/R zone, I have to make certain that it's valid. If it's valid, I need to be careful how I trade it. A break-out failure occurs on the near side of the zone. If price is on the far side of the zone then it's likely to break out, not fail, so I need to take care interpreting what looks like failure price action on the far side of the zone. Price has to come back through the zone before it's really failed. Basically a failure on the far side of the zone is not a high probability set-up.

The corollary is that a break-out occurs on the far side of the S/R zone. If PA is giving what looks like a perfect break-out on the near side of the zone, beware, because it's still got the whole zone to cross before it's broken out.

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  #713 (permalink)
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It's too late to edit that post, but the way it reads, it seems like those points 1 to 7 are a list of the improvements I made last week - they're not, they're a list of the improvements I need to implement or carry on implementing this week.


Adamus View Post
I noticed a distinct improvement in my entries on Thurs and Fri and I put this down directly to the improvements I implemented recently.

(1) I use the 1-min time-frame to observe PA during a set-up, but as soon as the entry is made, I allow the PA to complete - on the entry candle and the subsequent 1-min candle, but then I switch back to the trading time-frame - the 3-min.

(2) I don't move stops to B/E, I move them to a point defined by PA, unless I really need to do something quick, e.g. with the 2nd part stop.

(3) Mid-range set-ups on range days are not high probability set-ups, so I don't take them unless the PA is really convincing - that means the PA and not the FOMO

(4) I only make an entry on the 3rd 3-min candle or later, to avoid FOMO and acting out of impatience.

(5) Checklist implementation is working - I tick off the first 6 points on the list and then I can place an entry order - away from the action - and then I tick off the last 2 points and I can bring the entry stop into action.

(6) I use targets for both parts of the trade and I don't take the part 2 target off. I manage part 2 as per the plan - I give the market more room with the part 2 stop.

(7) If I have a big S/R zone, I have to make certain that it's valid. If it's valid, I need to be careful how I trade it. A break-out failure occurs on the near side of the zone. If price is on the far side of the zone then it's likely to break out, not fail, so I need to take care interpreting what looks like failure price action on the far side of the zone. Price has to come back through the zone before it's really failed. Basically a failure on the far side of the zone is not a high probability set-up.

The corollary is that a break-out occurs on the far side of the S/R zone. If PA is giving what looks like a perfect break-out on the near side of the zone, beware, because it's still got the whole zone to cross before it's broken out.


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  #714 (permalink)
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2013-05-13 Monday sim trading session


The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)
30. You will not make money trading reversals until you wait for a break
of a significant trendline and then for a strong reversal bar on a test of
the trend's extreme.

Lesson Learnt Last Session

If I enter on a low probability set-up, then any sign that the promising price action is not going to play out is reason enough to bail out straight away. If it's a higher probability set-up, when the price action turns negative, it might still be worth staying in.

Goal today

To implement all my improvements identified last week.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,073
Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600


forexfactory.com
 
Code
06:30 	CNY 	Med	Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
	CNY 	Med	Industrial Production y/y
	CNY 	Low	Retail Sales y/y 
AD	EUR 	High	Eurogroup Meetings 					
13:30 	USD 	High	Core Retail Sales m/m
	USD 	High	Retail Sales m/m
15:00 	USD 	Med	Business Inventories m/m

Session Details

Normal day, normal week. Normal sessin 12:30 - 16:00

Higher Time-frame

Friday killed off the idea of a bull trend, and half-killed the idea of a consolidation range continuing.

Trendoscope needle is on the bear.

Volatility

20 day volatility 110 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 24 (10 year max 96)
Looks like it is going up again. Didn't get as low as it did in early April.

Asian Session

27 point range, 3 points volatility. Gapped down but moved randomly upwards to close the gap at the end of the session. 50/50 rounded/abrupt reversals, small chop, random swing count.

London Session

Reversed the Asian session straight away but re-reversed and now at the top again. Looks like a range. Volatility medium.

Trader State

Physical: hungry, cold, got coffee, not allowed food. Still watching for a correlation here with profits.
Mental: OK
Fatigue: not good. Waves of fatigue already coming in.
Motivation: Trading is a business of making and losing money. -- Robert Rotella (The Elements of Successful Trading)


Session Notes and Review

Trying to review what happened today is making my head hurt. 2 B/E trades and 3 bail-out losses.

I know that good will come of this but I'd prefer to go down to the kung-fu school and fight for an hour. Guess I was expecting more after making good trades on Thurs & Fri.

Missed the 13:00 set-up 1, a test of the top of the day's range. Poor thinking. I was bullish to start with and quite convinced since I always make the unjustified assumption that the market will go to '00 levels or the hourly 50SMA if it's near-by. Lesson learnt. Actually OK, it did go to '00 but much later. It's just a possibility, not a guarantee - this time it went somewhere else first.

What I should have seen:
  • bar 279 was pushed right back bearishly
  • two bounces down to the 20EMA failed to rally
  • a nice up-down signal too the market below the 20EMA

I might need counselling to get over missing that.

Set-up 2 was half-way to the low of the day - and it's a mid-range pull-back, which is low probability. I could have taken it and bailed at the first PA counter-signal but I didn't. I think the reason what just some kind of uncertainty about whether I'm allowed to take it or not according to my plan. So I need to double check the plan and make sure this precise wording is in there: low probability, so bail hard and fast if trigger PA doesn't pan out.

The beauty of hindsight? Maybe but to me it is just annoying as hell. Bring on the Fear of Missing Out, I can handle that now I think. Slight silver lining.

Set-up 3 was the low of the day and just came into consideration by posting a third bar on the 3-min chart at that level. Again, there was quite a lot to say for going long:
  • the market decelerated noticeably rather than abruptly pulling back
  • the pull-back was big
  • the attempt to carry on south after the pull-back was poor and gave bullish PA on the 1-min

It's officially counter-trend, a break-out failure at the low of the day with a bearish higher time-frame trend, so I would have needed to have close targets, e.g. the 20EMA or the top of the pull-back on the way down.

Set-up 4 was the pull-back on the newly established sell-off. A couple of things got me - the move from the low to the 20EMA was quick and I forgot to do the due diligence, the impatience found a chink in my armour. Not surprising after missing set-ups 1 and 2. Also I was still watching the break-out failure set-up on the 1-min chart so I didn't realise that I hadn't given it 2 whole 3-min bars to set-up properly. Got in too soon. Bailed late too. Double whammy procedure failure.

Set-up 5 and set-up 6 merge into each. I figured it would go back down into the range again, and after it hit the '00 with a level (1 tick away) with a doji, I gave it a shot but bailed on lack of continuation. I thought doji reversals like that were solid as a rock.

I tried again, and bailed again - but should have tried again 2 bars later but didn't, forgotten why.

Then I figured if it wasn't going down, it was going to go up. Wrong. Technically I made 2 legitimate trades - all still in the same set-up. But I bailed hopelessly late on both of them. Definitely need to find a stronger bail-out enforcement mechanism.

At this point the fact that it is after 16:00 is my only insight. Will have to come up with something better before tomorrow.

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Today's Result

Set-up 4: -6 & -6
Set-up 6: 0 & 0
-1.5 & -2
-5.5 & -6
-3.5 & -6
Total: -36.5
New equity total: 94,927


Lessons Learnt

The market doesn't always go to the '00 levels - not immediately, and perhaps never anyway.

Be more wary of just going sideways after 16:00

More stuff later hopefully

The best set-up today?

Set-up 1, without a doubt.

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  #715 (permalink)
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Lies, damn lies, and what you convince yourself is true

I find it simultaneously amusing and embarrassing that I can so confidently state how things are in my mind as in the post above: Bring on the Fear of Missing Out, I can handle that now ...

I even agonised over what the problem could be, since it obviously wasn't FOMO - I had just conquered that

Once I'd finally admitted my lapse back into risk-seeking overtrading, I was ready to hit the sack and didn't come up with any astounding solution to the problem.

Yesterday's trading started out with 2 missed set-ups. Missing the set-ups is the first problem, it's indiscipline and not being prepared to sit and concentrate.

The result was FOMO, no doubt exacerbated by various factors in the market but still the crux of the issue.

Once in on the 2 extra trades I should not have taken, I was then unable to bail out on negative price action quick enough as I should have done - both down to my last psych challenge: be wary of letting profits run.

So 3 issues in a chain reaction almost.

I see a couple of approaches to solving the problem
  • stop the trading session after missing out on a set-up (need the screen time though, so not desirable)
  • add a "FOMO checkpoint" to my checklist (probably liable to quickly tick and ignore this)
  • take a time-out after each set-up to re-set my psychological state, i.e. go over my "successful trading" visualisation

I think I'm right that the 2nd solution won't work. I'm going to try the third solution and if that's not enough, I'll go with the first. Yes it would take away the screen time and slow my progress towards the 10K hours, but there is still a ton of stuff I can do in that time instead.

The issue with taking a time-out at the end of a set-up is that I don't have a logical end point in my trading procedure for each set-up. If I trade, then exiting the position is the logical end point, but if I miss the entry, then the next logical point in my procedure is the start of the next set-up.

I'll need a logical step in my procedure at the end of a set-up and this requires a definition of the end of a set-up. This will have to be the price leaving the set-up area (not just the S/R level) - at the close of the 2nd candle to close outside the set-up zone (the 1st candle to close outside the zone might be followed immediately by a failure candle that shoots back).

So that starts today. If I'm not in a trade, at the end of the last candle plus one of a set-up, I'll get up and walk away, do the visualisation exercise and then come back to the chart.

I also need to be stricter at leaving my other work pre-trading, concentrate more narrowly on the trading prep and prepare all the domestic stuff before starting too - food, drink, any other physical requirements.

PS Still wondering what to do about the inability to bail out on bad PA, but not sure how connected that is with the initial FOMO problem

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  #716 (permalink)
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The last 2 days have been tough for me as well @Adamus but, then again, they have basically been trading ranges so don't beat yourself up too badly. Also, I am always leery of staying in later than 11:00am EST (16:00BST) and have a semi-permanent rule to get out of positions by 11:30EST because the trend will quite often change- I assume because all of the UK/EU is packing it up for the day.

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  #717 (permalink)
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2013-05-14 Tuesday sim trading session


The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)
31. You will not make money unless you know what you are doing. Print
out the 5-minute Emini chart every day (and stock charts, if you trade
stocks) and write on the chart every setup that you see. When you see
several price action features, write them all on the chart. Do this every
day for years until you can look at any part of any chart and instantly
understand what is happening.

The 10K hour rule.

Lesson Learnt Lsast Session

See previous post.

Goal today

Implement new end-of-set-up step.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 94,926
Position size: 2 x US$50K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600


forexfactory.com
 
Code
00:01 	GBP 	Low	RICS House Price Balance
07:00 	EUR 	Low	German Final CPI m/m
	EUR 	Low	German WPI m/m 
10:00 	EUR 	High	German ZEW Economic Sentiment
	EUR 	Med	Industrial Production m/m 
	EUR 	Med	ZEW Economic Sentiment
	GBP 	Low	CB Leading Index m/m
All Day 	EUR 	Med	ECOFIN Meetings 					
12:30 	USD 	Low	NFIB Small Business Index
13:30 	USD 	Med	Import Prices m/m

Session Details

Normal session, normal week. Start time meant to be 12:30, another day another excuse to be late

Higher Time-frame

Yesterday was a doji - it looks pretty ugly but I'd say it's still in a down-trend.

Volatility

20 day volatility 108 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 21.5 (10 year max 96)

Down slightly, but still on the rise for the last few days - if today increases the volatility to get the rise back on track.

Asian Session

Big push up early on not co-inciding with news. Then it trended down for the rest of the session.

50 point range, 4.5 volatility. Not so choppy, trended nicely re overlap, tails, abrupt swing points.

London Session

Started off with a wild candle reminiscent of NFP candles, going both ways.

Bounced up off the hourly 50EMA and hit the Asian high, but then tanked, broke through the Asian low to hit '50. A fair amount of chop with lots of overlap and tails and no convincing direction until 10:00, then a clean push down.

Trader State

Physical: well fed, caffeine supply good, all OK
Mental: pleased at getting an analysis out of yesterday's disaster, unhappy at being late to the session again
Fatigue: guess so, not aware how much right now but nothing changed
Motivation: Be wary of any trading method unless you see a detailed demonstration showing that it has worked for at least five to ten years in a variety of different markets using exactly the same rules. -- Bruce Babcock


Session Notes and Review

Set-up 1 started just as I started watching and was a perfect example of a break-out failure. The only slight worry I had was whether the market would recognise the Asian Low as resistance, since the market was cycling upwards quite smoothly. Doesn't really matter though, since it broke downwards after three straight little bear trend bars on the 1-min chart, just like a failure should.

It moved well down to the target at '50 but bounced hard. Wasn't sure about how whether to interpret that as the retrace that proves the 12:30 low was the low of the day, so I left the part 2 stop just above a pull-back (bar 307) and it got taken out after the market consolidated just below, but failed to turn down again. Maybe I should have saved a couple of ticks by bringing the stop closer to the top of that pull-back.

Set-up 2 looked like a lower swing high. The break-out was weak, pull-back was pretty healthy, and it failed to continue higher quite obviously but then suddenly it put in a spike downwards before I was ready or expecting it and after that I couldn't work out whether the bulls were still there or not, so I didn't enter. Turns out they were still there and pushed the market higher into the next set-up.

It pushed straight through the Asian low this time and halted at the hourly 50EMA for set-up 3. It was doing perfectly and I had the entry but then it switched back on the 1-min chart to make an ugly bullish formation so I bailed, and managed to catch the high as that little 1-min reversal pattern failed and the bears took over again. I guess I should have saved myself a couple of ticks - again - because I hesitated for 5 seconds and which costs me 2 ticks. Not a big issue I guess but I knew what I had to do and was still trying to decide whether or not to do it for 5 seconds.

After taking my stop out, the bears then lost their powers and it consolidated, leaving the set-up in limbo. I changed the set-up from being a straight break-out failure of the hourly 50SMA to being a break-out failure of the 50SMA / Asian Low. That looked better and better and in fact more bullish but then the bulls failed to get it off the ground, and the bears took it down, allowed it to bounce up off the 20EMA and then I entered, a little late with the feeling I was chasing it.

I stuck it out the subsequent stall and was glad to see the big bear trend bar. I put the stops at a point where I thought the top of a kind of down channel was. Wasn't a bad place to put it but doesn't help if the market reverses. Obviously had a big question mark at the doji which marked the turning point but a 10 point retrace would not have been a surprise if the trend had carried on down - and that's my higher time-frame bias as well.

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Today's Result

Set-up 1: 19.5 & 2.5
Set-up 3: -2.5 & -2.5
-2.5 & -3
Total: 11.5
New equity in sim: 94,947

Lessons Learnt

The difference between managing exits on bad PA and letting losers run is having a plan - making a plan immediately after entry for bad PA, what it is likely to be and where and when to bail means I don't have to decide too quickly later. I knew that already, I had just forgotten it.

Not making a plan at that point means trusting myself to make the right decision in the heat of the moment when the bad PA is suddenly staring me in the face.

Still have to clear up a few details of the PA - like whether to wait for candles to complete and that sort of thing.

Also, I don't think my new psych management technique has been tested thoroughly yet with only 3 set-ups and no bad missed set-ups.

The best set-up today?

Set-up 1

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  #718 (permalink)
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2013-05-15 Wednesday sim trading session

Just lost the notes so I can't post them. Pretty frustrating end to a frustrating day.

Key take-away lesson today was new rules need to go into the trading plan straight away - I had decided not to trade past 16:00 but did so anyway on some feeble justification and paid the usual price.

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  #719 (permalink)
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Agreed. I actually didn't start watching until about 14:15 BST and restrained myself from taking a trade. After looking back, I'm glad I didn't :-)

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Didn't have the restraint here. Wouldn't have been so bad since if I'd bailed when I should have bailed but it got into profit and past my "entry bail-out" plan, then just retraced hard. Instead of having plan, I just had a vague idea of whereabouts I'd like to get out. Another variation on the lesson I was given a couple of days ago - always have a plan.

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