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Trading spot fx euro using price action
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Trading spot fx euro using price action

  #661 (permalink)
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2013-04-16 Tuesday sim trading session


The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)
13. Decide if this is a hobby or a job. If it is a hobby, find another one
because this one will be too expensive and it is dangerously addictive.
All great traders are likely trading addicts, but most trading addicts are
or will likely end up broke.

Lesson Learnt Last Session

Not trading is more boring than trading.
Trying to switch to GBP/USD is difficult

Goal today

Give the set-ups more time, don't be impatient. Go with the flow more. Trust the stops to be in the right place and trust the PA that signals an entry, and trust it to signal an exit.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,007
Position size: US$100K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Normal day, normal week.


forexfactory.com
 
Code
09:00 	EUR 	Low	Italian Trade Balance 
09:30 	GBP 	High	CPI y/y 
	GBP 	Med	PPI Input m/m 
	GBP 	Med	RPI y/y 
	GBP 	Low	Core CPI y/y
	GBP 	Low	HPI y/y
	GBP 	Low	PPI Output m/m
10:00 	EUR 	High	German ZEW Economic Sentiment
	EUR 	Med	CPI y/y
	EUR 	Med	Core CPI y/y
	EUR 	Med	ZEW Economic Sentiment 
13:00 	USD 	Low	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks 					
13:30 	USD 	High	Building Permits
	USD 	High	Core CPI m/m 
	USD 	Med	CPI m/m 
	USD 	Med	Housing Starts 
14:00 	EUR 	High	ECB President Draghi Speaks 					
14:15 	USD 	Med	Capacity Utilization Rate
	USD 	Med	Industrial Production m/m 
15:00 	USD 	Med	Treasury Sec Lew Speaks 					
17:00 	USD 	Low	FOMC Member Duke Speaks 					
20:00 	USD 	Med	FOMC Member Yellen Speaks 					
	USD 	Med	Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

Higher Time-frame

Yesterday's daily bar confirmed we definitely got some consolidation going on here that is either a swing point with change in trend down again, or just a pull-back on the rally. I thought it would hit 1.3000 but it only got within 20 points - potential for a retrace to 1.3000 still on but not so likely with what looks like a triple bottom down there now earlier today. So we're either in a retrace of the rally from the beginning of the month, or that retrace is already over and we're rallying again - or we just stay in consolidation for a while. Judging by the low volatility, I expect further consolidation.

Volatility

20 day volatility 106 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 20 (10 year max 96)
Low but not declining further

Asian Session

Range 50 points, volatility 5 points, very choppy. Broken swing count, lots of tails, mostly rounded reversals, right in an area with lots of S/R, but then bullish at the end closing strongly.

London Session

Put in a morning reversal and bounced back up again leaving a strong rejection tail. Sharp reversals, a bit of chop, but then a strong move, respecting the S/R.

Trader State

Physical: tired
Mental: tired
Fatigue: tired. Thoughts that it was improving totally wrong. Need to put in some early nights.
Motivation: We seek not to imitate the masters, rather we seek what they sought.

Session Notes and Review

12:30: early morning set-ups were hard, but the trend since 10AM was nicer. The volatility is now down. Bulls had their 3 legs up to here, but the bears are not looking at all strong though.

Set-up 1 at 1.3115 - pull-back was weak, but the push up was also weak, 25 points, like a final leg up - if it can't push further this time, it won't make the next target at 1.3138. Nothing looks good. News due in 30 mins so expecting consolidation til then.

Just decided this could be a double top and on strong US economic news, it might plummet back to low of day, suitable PA for consolidation period on the daily.

That bull push surprised me. It leapt up without even touching the EMA20, or so it is on the 1-min chart, but on the 3-min chart it clearly bounces off the EMA20. Hmm. Had a clear chance to enter here after the first jump up off the EMA. It pushed on without me, opportunity gone.

Set-up 2 - now it's at the April high - 1.3138 @13:03 - actually this is a typical volatility injection with the US opening.

Just to distract me, the London AM high from my S/R indie was showing a bad value - that is annoying.

Big pull-back from 1.3138 with no sign of strength in the break-out. Plus it all looks a bit climactic.

13:20 it quickly pushed on for '50 with a new high. I was bearish. V. quick. Not much of a set-up there for breaking out of the month's high.

No move off the news.

Set-up 3 14:00 looked like a PB set-up, but a trap. But the bears did a great job of looking weak for the a trap. Looks like a bull bounce of EMA20 - then some bearish action on #315 - so it was a trap - target? only small, the London AM session high. Or 1.3112.

Set-up 4 14:30 at the London AM session high - so what have the bears got? Target 1.3112, a swing low on the way up earlier. I'm calling this a set-up because I think it can go back to the high of the day from here, i.e. bullish.

Got sucked into a long trade despite bad PA on that bad bear candle at 326 / 14:33. The market was up and down on that one, I put a stop on above the current bar. Should have put my stop further up, above the high of a previous bar, or I should have waited until the bar closed. Stupid mistake, out by 3 ticks but it cost me 7 points.

Need to take it easy, getting a lot of random trade suggestions popping into my head after that mistake.

Set-up 5 at 1.3112, the bears decelerated and made me bullish but I thought we could face an hour or more of chop at this level. Argh, missed the move, expecting more of a retrace off the EMA20 but didn't get it. Also basically hesitating, hadn't put in a stop order, wasn't feeling the need to get long.

So it didn't make the target before offering set-up 6 as the bears retrace it back to the EMA20 again. Something told me to be bullish out of the stall, but logic tells me theres a retrace to the last low coming, a kind of decision point for whether it's a new trend down or not. No point in doing anything if I'm arguing with myself here. Turns out I was just looking for the next set-up too hard because I wasn't sure this trend would carry on and I was too interested in this being a lower high that breaks the trend swing count.

So a bounce of the EMA20 it was, and heading for the HOD.

Just broken 1.3138 but too quick - no time wasted here - now broken 1.3150 - ten point target got filled pretty quick, no surprise.

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Today's Result

Trade 1: -7 and -7.
Total: -14 points.

Lessons Learnt

I haven't actually written up my entry method in my trading plan, so I don't have this information in black and white. I'm going to go through the YTC PAT pdf again and make sure I've written the whole thing down.

I keep asking myself the question, how many more mistakes can I make, assuming I'm good enough not to repeat the same ones, but I think the answer lies 50% in my trading plan and 50% in performance - I was definitely not at peak performance. I'm tired, I've got distractions. My plan from here is to think about it all again before I go to bed.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #662 (permalink)
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The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)
11. Many beginners want excitement and tend to overtrade. Many great
traders find trading to be lonely and boring, but very profitable.

Question to Al: if trading is boring, doesn't that mean you should increase your leverage?

The way I see it, although this is all conjecture since I'm not there yet, just being a lowly sim trader, if you are nervous, you are not bored. So if you are trading well and you are bored, then it is time to increase your leverage, and trade with the increased size, make more money hopefully and eventually if all goes well after a while, reach the same stage of boredom again.

Maybe it's the definition that's the reason for my disagreement:

bore: verb (bored, boring) to make someone feel tired and uninterested, by being dull, tedious, uninteresting, unimaginative, etc

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #663 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
Question to Al: if trading is boring, doesn't that mean you should increase your leverage?

The way I see it, although this is all conjecture since I'm not there yet, just being a lowly sim trader, if you are nervous, you are not bored. So if you are trading well and you are bored, then it is time to increase your leverage, and trade with the increased size, make more money hopefully and eventually if all goes well after a while, reach the same stage of boredom again.

Maybe it's the definition that's the reason for my disagreement:

bore: verb (bored, boring) to make someone feel tired and uninterested, by being dull, tedious, uninteresting, unimaginative, etc

Hi Adamus very interesting thread you've come a long way.( Boring) equals: trading plan Discipline, Repetition, Money Management,and Patience. And remember Adamus over leverage is the number one killer in the Forex.

Leonardo

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  #664 (permalink)
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2013-04-17 Wednesday sim trading session


The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)
14. If you can't juggle one ball, don't try to juggle two or three. If you
are not yet making money, start with one chart, one market, one
time frame (the 5-minute), and one concept (price action and not
indicators).

Lesson Learnt Last Session

Need peak performance to stand a chance here: sleep more. Get less distracted.
Enter correctly according to the plan. Don't mess with limit orders unless there is a big stall offering an opposite side to enter at.
I can see traps at least to avoid them, maybe not to exploit them yet.

Goal today

More concentration - if distracted, just stop and do some programming or reading instead.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,454
Position size: US$100K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Normal day, normal week. Session start 13:00.


forexfactory.com
 
Code
09:30 	GBP 	High	Claimant Count Change 
	GBP 	High	MPC Meeting Minutes 
	GBP 	Med	Unemployment Rate 	
	GBP 	Low	Average Earnings Index 3m/y 
10:33 	EUR 	Med	German 10-y Bond Auction 	
14:30 	USD 	Med	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks 					
15:30 	USD 	Med	Crude Oil Inventories 	
17:00 	USD 	Med	FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks 					
19:00 	USD 	Med	Beige Book 					
21:00 	USD 	Med	Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

Higher Time-frame

Definitely looks like the same sort of trend as the sell-off through March. Have to bullish from this higher time-frame, but not that bullish. Currently at 1.3200. I can see what looks like a big consolidation S/R zone in the low 1.32's from late December, and the same in the low 1.33's from mid-Jan. Therefore upside has some barriers. Downside? 1.3000 still attractive. 50:50 either way, maybe leaning bearish because of double top on hourly chart.

Volatility

20 day volatility 110 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 25 (10 year max 96)
Yesterday provided a big rise on both daily and hourly.
Hourly is still down historically but daily is off March highs but high.

Asian Session

Quiet session with 18 point range and 3 point volatility (yesterday it was 5). Flat to bearish. Mixed reversals, few tails, little chop except at start after coming off yesterday's high.

London Session

Morning reversal looked like easy meat but it faked a move down first. Some good flowing moves but an ugly reversal at the high of day touching 1.3200 before selling off - again nicely - down to support surroundin 1.3100 and the 60min SMA50

The bloody session indie has messed up again - it got the high OK, but the low is 2.5 points out - and my debug statements didn't print anything so the bug is not where I thought it was. Located and destroyed bug - one less distraction but it cost 20 mins.

Trader State

Physical: Good
Mental: Good
Fatigue: Less so but still fatigued
Motivation: We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act, but a habit. - Aristotle

Session Notes and Review

Set-up 1 at 1.3120, a support line from yesterday's mid-rally complex pull-back. Choppy interaction on hitting support, it pulled back to touch the EMA20 and duly bounced but it didn't have the strength to continue after the break-out. First thing I thought looking at that chop was "it's going to reverse here".

Missed it fixing the bug I had

Set-up 2: it rallied and it's gone over the EMA20 now and broken resistance by 1 point. This is an old swing high from the sell-off on the daily chart for Feb/Mar.

Looks like this sell-off is having the same problems as the rally yesterday mid-way - it put in a higher high to break the swing count, and now at 14:00 we've got a higher low and every bar now is on the EMA20 so no help from that anymore. Not as much movement as yesterday with only 25 points in the range now - yesterday's complex pull-back went 40 points.

set-up 3 moved up further than I expected. if it's got the same strength in this leg up, it'll swing just below 1.3145. It swung around the S/R level at 1.3139 on the way down here and it looks like the same about to happen on the way back up. Leg down should be 20 points or less to maintain bullish pressure.

More resistance right above this at '50, then '62.

It played out and dropped down to the EMA20, bounced weakly off the line for a 1-min bar and didn't manage to rally so I went for the short, targeting 1.3125. I put my stops above the failed bounce bar.

Targets were close, almost 1:1 risk reward. I figured this was technically counter-trend, although I was just being cowardly, so I put the targets together, but only 1 got filled, after that I pulled my stop down and the top of the bar caught it.

Set-up 4, big reversal bar but not a BO bar #330. Too much too quick, plus volatility back up. Bounce from reversal bar all the way up to previous S/R just over the EMA20 and back down again.

the increased volatility was scaring me. I mean, I was hiding behind the sofa at this point, in retrospect. So in my fear I completely missed the set-up, which was a golden give-away. I'll just step thro it.

As the market moved off the London session's low after that doji hammer, I wasn't bullish as much as earlier since it'd dropped down further than I had expected - you can see from my targets on trading the leg down - if this was a reversal point into a rally for the day, this should have been a higher low, which it wasn't - admittedly only by a tick, but that was enough to sow doubt in my mind. Hint 1.

So I didn't get long - there were 3 candlestick patterns keeping my bullish counter-trend hopes alive - a doji and the down-up twins on the 1-min, plus the doji hammer on the 3-min.

Then came a great bounce off the S/R above and the EMA20, which I completely missed. A new lower high. Totally blind-sided me.

Immediately followed by another lower tail, making it 2 on the 3-min chart - put me off selling.

Then it sold off sharply, hit the 60min SMA50 and retraced sharply again. I wasted time checking that I hadn't missed any news items - stupid, I knew I hadn't. That's called "displacement behaviour" - doing something completely different to avoid doing what you should.

Now a big sell-off. Set-ups flying past. Thro the SMA50.

Thro 1.3100. A couple of quick PB set-ups gone.

Set-up 5 @1.3084 is another PB - too quick, I was expecting a retrace back up to 1.3100 which didn't happen. Failure of expectations should go down on record for future reference, i.e. this was strong.

Set-up 6 at 1.3072 and trying for a PB again @15:30 Mid-way between S/R and typically it's put in a reversal bar. Probably worth a scalp up to the last S/R but now it's tanking again. On the 1-min it's decelerating clearly. No - not worth a scalp - it turned into 2 reversal bars next to each other. A sucker exit signal and a trap for longs.

Set-up 7 at 1.3050 - same thing as (6) - makes the target but slower than before - one of the lows of the previous few days that define the S/R from 1.3020 - 35. Almost entered short on bar 347 after a new lower low bar after the retrace there on the 1-min. I had the entry stop in place but I chickened out.

It hits the next S/R at '35 and comes straight back, without any set-up, and is back at '50 again making me indecisive between it going into a complex pull-back or just a full-blown reversal - me thinking it's the low of the day again. At the doji touching the EMA20 at bar 363 I try but can't enter short. Don't like it. Too choppy or something. Just as well since the next swing low is only 5 points down.

Set-up 9 coming up to 17:00. Last chance now to get a bounce down off the EMA20 with some nice PA. Then Schluss - initially after some hard volatility breaking above '50 again, it bounces around the EMA20, it picks up pace again. Had an entry but couldn't take the heat.

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Today's Result

Trade 1: 8 and 3.5 points
Trade 2: -1.5 and -1.5 points

Total: 8.5 points
Current sim account total: 95,473

Lessons Learnt

Don't be scared. Very distracting.
Didn't have enough experience with great trends.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #665 (permalink)
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2013-04-18 Thursday sim trading session


The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)
15. Begin trading using a 5-minute chart and entering on a stop. Take some
or all off on a limit order at a profit target, and then move the protective
stop to breakeven on any remaining contracts.

Lesson Learnt Last Session

Fear increases the noise in my head and decreases the attention span I can focus on what I should be doing. The fear comes from the increased volatility. Last year I simmed the morning session before the US opened and the volatility is markedly less - maybe 15 to 20% less on average. I have a fear of entering trades with big stops because I hate to see my equity curve carrying on down - I need my equity curve to turn upwards. I've already analyzed this and I know I have to decide before I place the entry order that I will already give up the money risked, in my head. I wasn't able to act on this bit of psych training though - I just didn't do it. Must try harder.

Goal today

Stay focused.
Stay calm.
No distractions.
Be biased, but don't be certain.
Visualize where the traps are.
Wait til you see the money lying there on the floor and then just pick it up.
Deal with the fear at each set-up.
Don't mess with limit entries.
Don't hang it all on a precise pattern playing out. It can have no effect, or a delayed effect, as long as it's not a trap (you'll see the order flow)
Trust the stops to be in a good place.


Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,473
Position size: US$100K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Normal day, normal week. Session start 13:00.
G20 meetings - although the massive moves yesterday and Tuesday are unlikely to be repeated


forexfactory.com
 
Code
09:30 	GBP 	High	Retail Sales m/m
09:44 	EUR 	Med	Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
10:35 	GBP 	Low	30-y Bond Auction
13:30 	USD 	High	Unemployment Claims
15:00 	USD 	High	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
	USD 	Low	CB Leading Index m/m
15:30 	USD 	Low	Natural Gas Storage
Day 1 	ALL 	High	G20 Meetings		
17:00 	USD 	Med	FOMC Member Raskin Speaks

Higher Time-frame

The daily chart put in a great bearish engulfing pattern and got to within a point of 1.3000, so it's either put in a nice retrace to the big round number and can carry on rallying, or more likely will penetrate it and do something more bearish, like re-establish the Feb/Mar sell-off.

Volatility

20 day volatility 114 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 27 (10 year max 96)
Climbing, daily is almost at year's high, but hourly is still well below Feb & Mar levels.

Asian Session

Range 40 points, volatility 4 points. Flat for the first half, just back and forth, then at 03:00 something kicked in and it rallied off the lows until the London opening. Good rally, no chop or significant tails, with abrupt swing highs and rounded swing lows.

London Session

Really lacklustre. Failed at the morning reversal, looking all choppy and sideways, but not low volatility - max 6 points. Quite a lot of tails and overlap, sharp reversals, occupying the same range around 1.3030 to '50 as yesterday's post-sell-off.

Trader State

Physical: OK
Mental: Good
Fatigue: No better. Failed to get to bed by 10 again, woken at 04:00, 06:00, 07:00 & got up then.
Motivation: Do not give a second thought to anything or anyone's opinions of what the market will or might do. The very news and opinions that surround you becomes the mortar for the brick wall of defense that protects your independent thinking.

Session Notes and Review

Started at 13:00 with everything sideways, but not choppy. Set-up 1 came suddenly after waiting 45 mins for the market to get to a range boundary and give me a set-up.

The break-out above the high so far today was a good couple of points but the retrace was larger, and I wanted to put my stops at 1.3080 and I wanted to keep my stops to 10 points so I had trouble getting an entry and missed it. Stupid, because my plan allows for 20 point stops.

Set-up 2 was the mirror image below, and even quicker - it had a trigger - the red bar 342 - but I didn't recognise it and it was gone.

Set-up 3 was even quicker and I had no chance, but then it came up for another shot so I started getting bullish. I wasn't given a long entry chance though and the big stall around bar 360 was a bit of a monster piece of price action. I should have seen the double top earlier and then I would have shorted it out of the stall block.

However the opportunity to short again at the EMA20 didn't pan out for a short - I wanted to see a green bar without a tail like the one it's got there on the 1-min chart (bar 363). If it had just put in 3 or 4 points up on a plain old green bar, I would have sold it but it looked fishy. Then it got more bullish and the break above the EMA20 had me thinking 'failure'. I was way too early but I held through the heat with my stops a couple of points below the previous red bar and it paid off. I thought it was going to go to 1.3100 so I exited on stops rather than targets after it reversed.

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Today's Result

Trade 1: 16.5 and 11 points
Total: 27.5 points
Resulting sim equity: 95,560

Lessons Learnt

Have to mentally accept bigger risk than 10 points.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.

Last edited by Adamus; April 18th, 2013 at 02:03 PM.
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  #666 (permalink)
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Hey @Adamus, I forgot to post that I purchased Al Brooks' trading course last week. I've completed 20 modules so far. The presentation leaves me sleepy but the information is really good. Even though I'm a little less than half-way through, I must say that the course is well worth the money. Now I need to finish and see if I can apply it.

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  #667 (permalink)
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SammyD View Post
I forgot to post that I purchased Al Brooks' trading course last week. I've completed 20 modules so far. The presentation leaves me sleepy but the information is really good. Even though I'm a little less than half-way through, I must say that the course is well worth the money. Now I need to finish and see if I can apply it.

@SammyD how many hours is that in all then? Sounds great.

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  #668 (permalink)
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I think total runs around 27 hours

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SammyD View Post
I think total runs around 27 hours

Wow, looks like you've got a lot to chew on there. Is it basically the video version of his new books?

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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Adamus View Post
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Fear increases the noise in my head and decreases the attention span I can focus on what I should be doing. The fear comes from the increased volatility. Last year I simmed the morning session before the US opened and the volatility is markedly less - maybe 15 to 20% less on average. I have a fear of entering trades with big stops because I hate to see my equity curve carrying on down - I need my equity curve to turn upwards. I've already analyzed this and I know I have to decide before I place the entry order that I will already give up the money risked, in my head. I wasn't able to act on this bit of psych training though - I just didn't do it. Must try harder.
...
Have to mentally accept bigger risk than 10 points.

Hi @Adamus,

I helped myself with this: I created 4 pieces of paper with the word "LOSS" on it in big red letters. When I enter a trade I take 1 card, put it in front of my on my desk.

Then I tell myself that the money is already lost or spend.

If there is a winner or scratch I put the card away. In case of loosers if 3-4 cards are spend, I stop trading.

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