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Trading spot fx euro using price action
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Trading spot fx euro using price action

  #651 (permalink)
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SammyD View Post
Right, I would not personally. Sometimes I question, though, if I am finding too many points of S/R. After all, they are all broken in the end.

Yes, valid point.

For automated trading, if you found an edge over the last 10 years of data, which had nothing to do with S/R, you'd probably trade the system as it is, without any reference to S/R. In fact I thought Van Tharp was talking about automated trading, but actually he's not.

I don't believe a system with random entries can be profitable unless you have an exit trigger that looks exactly like what you would normally use as a non-random entry trigger, i.e. it gets you straight out of the market after a random entry if your conditions aren't met.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.

Last edited by Adamus; April 9th, 2013 at 08:52 AM. Reason: trying to clarify what I wrote
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  #652 (permalink)
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2013-04-09 Tuesday sim trading session


The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)
8. All patterns fail, and the failures often fail, but a failed failure is a second
entry in the original direction and has a high probability of success.

Lesson Learnt Last Session
Yesterday's market was pretty random.

I shouldn't have used a stop, I should have got in on a limit for lower risk.

I could have reversed my position at a good price if I'd traded 5 mins longer (and picked up the signals)

maybe I shouldn't have traded, I could have looked at GBP instead.

Goal today

Be biased but uncertain (again)

Discipline - take entries as per the plan

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,652
Position size: US$100K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Standard session today, NY 5 hours behind.


forexfactory.com
 
Code
00:00 	GBP 	Med	BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 	
00:01 	GBP 	Low	RICS House Price Balance 
00:15 	USD 	High	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 					
07:00 	EUR 	Low	German Trade Balance 	
07:45 	EUR 	Low	French Gov Budget Balance 
	EUR 	Low	French Trade Balance 
09:30 	GBP 	High	Manufacturing Production m/m 	
	GBP 	Med	Trade Balance 
	GBP 	Low	Industrial Production m/m 		
10:35 	GBP 	Low	10-y Bond Auction 	
12:30 	USD 	Low	NFIB Small Business Index 	
15:00 	GBP 	Med	NIESR GDP Estimate 	
	USD 	Low	Wholesale Inventories m/m

Higher Time-frame

Up-swing from swing low in motion. Yesterday was an inside day and bullish, all adding to the possibility of a trend day upwards.

Volatility

20 day volatility 111 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatiliy 20 (10 year max 96)
Down again thanks to quiet day yesterday

Asian Session

Something shook up the Euro early in the Asian session, maybe Bernanke speaking late last night in the US.

Range 60 points, volatility 5 points - just like a Monday - gives me cause to bet on a break-out upwards again today.

After the 1:00AM surge the market tailed off back below 1.3050, looking smooth with more rounded reversals and longer swings that usual for the Asian session.

London Session

Essentially sideways, bounced off the Asian Low, not so much chop but a long period of sideways up & down from 10:30 on just beneath 1.3050. Looked difficult, quite quick interplay at S/R and then

Trader State

Physical: not good. Just started the 5:2 diet (5 days food, 2 days no food)
Mental: also not good. A double whammy this morning on the personal side - one at a time I can take them in my stride but 2 at once knocked me a bit. Considered not sim'ing today but decided instead to re-read McCall's Warrior Trader.
Fatigue: yes, plenty. Pretty bad actually.
Motivation: Cutting the fat out of the markets requires more than an understanding of money management principles. It requires the discipline to tolerate and endure emotional pain to a level that 19 out of 20 people cannot bear. -- Ralph Vince, Mathematics of Money Management.

Real-time Notes

None today - need to find a voice recognition software to record verbal commentary.

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Session Review

Difficult today. I went into the session relatively mentally & emotionally unstable compared to usual, I thought I'd end up doing something stupid. I guess my first two trades were stupid and rushed - ill-disciplined. I didn't hang on to the thought I'd fed myself earlier.

Not making notes helps trading, but it doesn't help analysing my trading session.

The blue zone is some resistance from a couple of weeks back.

I think I've figured out now I really have to wait for the good set-ups, I rushed into the first trade when it was only 4 bars old. Maybe I should counter my impatience by making a rule not to enter a trade until the 5th bar of the set-up. I should have waited for the bounce of the EMA20. I think better than a hard-and-fast rule, I'll make sure that if I really want to enter before the 5th bar of the set-up, I have to be really confident and carry a tight stop.

But once I was long, my lack of control didn't go away - I moved my stop further down to below the EMA20 to try to salvage the trade, and then when killed on that stop, figured I'd been tricked and got back in above the EMA20 again, only to be tricked for sure the opposite way.

So that was set-up 1. Total lack of discipline. However I recovered and got my self-control back.

I just watched set-up 2 unfold - didn't detect anything I could do there despite the point-perfect respect for the S/R.

After rushing into set-up 1 I told myself to wait for the stall or the trigger, and don't be certain about the trend. I figured the trend at set-up 3 would be officially down, since that would be a lower high and the stall and PA triggered my entry, but I couldn't take the heat. Pretty sloppy really because I knew it could go 2 ticks back over the EMA, and I hadn't bothered to figure out that an 8 point retrace was totally reasonable. The stops would have been perfectly placed just above the high of the entry bar.

Set-up 4 was big and extended, and the market was putting in some big bars. I sensed the situation was bullish again despite the earlier change in the swing count. I think that big bear bar that pushes down thro support should have had some subsequent bear bars following on, but it was rejected neatly and pushed back to the support, tried to push down a little again but pushed back and that was actually the start of the rally - bar 350, the almost-doji.

However I couldn't nail it. I felt a strong urge to dive in after that one red bar coming down off the EMA, it was low risk but fast, but I couldn't tell if I was just dreaming about catching big moves or if it was a valid message from my subconscious.

Set-up 5 was where the market paused at the previous swing point, and again I got the urge to jump in but I thought I was being badly disciplined and letting the lure of big points affect me. Of course it could have been impatience too. This set-up has got just 3 bars so waiting for the 5th bar doesn't help.

Set-up 6 was also quick. I wanted to wait for it to retrace back into the S/R zone a bit and had a limit order in there to catch it, but that didn't happen. I guess I was ignoring the strength it had that got it there, and I ignored the slow-down on the bear's pull-back. Another low risk opportunity to get in there actually, but I had the potential retrace back to the Asian high in mind.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.

Last edited by Adamus; April 10th, 2013 at 09:24 AM.
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  #653 (permalink)
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2013-04-10 Wednesday sim trading session



The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)
9. When you see that one side is suddenly trapped, the reliability of a
scalp in the opposite direction goes up. Trapped traders will be forced
out as you are getting in, and they will likely wait for more price action
before entering again in their original direction, so the only traders left
will be in your direction.

Lesson Learnt Last Session

Patience - don't leap in unless sure that the impulse to do so is valid - take 10 seconds to think about it before doing it.

Discipline - acting quickly and decisively is not useful if you're not sticking to the plan. Why are you making a quick decision? The reasons are mostly likely wrong if you haven't thought about what they are.

Goal today

Also need discipline on position management & exits, not just entries - put the stop in the right place!

Bias and uncertainty well managed though - need to do that again.

Continue to listen to yourself - if you note something, don't ignore it half an hour later.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,544
Position size: US$100K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

A normal Wednesday.


forexfactory.com
 
Code
07:45 	EUR 	Med	French Industrial Production m/m
09:00 	EUR 	Low	Italian Industrial Production m/m
15:30 	USD 	Med	Crude Oil Inventories
18:00 	USD 	Med	10-y Bond Auction 
19:00 	USD 	High	FOMC Meeting Minutes 					
		USD 	Med	Federal Budget Balance

Higher Time-frame

The up-swing has decelerated on the 60 mins chart, but not the daily chart where it still looks strong. On the higher time-frames, 1.3000 isn't dead and buried yet. A pull-back to there would still fit in with a continuing rally.

Verdict? Could go either way - and probably will

Volatility

20 day volatility 111 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatiliy 22 (10 year max 96)
Down again on the day. 20 hour volatility spent a lot of time at this level last year - most of 1Q, 3Q & 4Q

Asian Session

20 point range with volatillity of 3. Pretty choppy and only just bullish until the nose-dive at the end, wonder who was doing that at 06:00AM - abrupt reversals, lots of upper & lower tails, number of stalls, number of dojis.

London Session

It stayed above my blue zone nicely and reversed the Asian session's sell-off with strength, only to slacken off at the next swing. But it bounced really quickly off resistance at a swing high made in early March in the sell-off, starting the sell-off but getting caught up completely by the 11:00 to 12:00 doldrums.

Otherwise it looks really range-bound. Just one swing and the rest sideways. Not too choppy, and also volatility not low although it looks it. Abrupt reversals, although slow. How can it be slow yet normal volatility? There was only one big bar and the rest were average. A different distribution of bar sizes. Thinking too much here.

Trader State

Physical: pretty good, enjoying my food today and aching from training last night. so good, right?
Mental: never know what to look at here.
Fatigue: yes again. Youngest child has fever = sleepless nights administering paracetemol & ibuprofen
Motivation:
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Notes and Review

Using Windows built-in speech recognition. Still needs a bit of training but it looks promising. Blew an hour out of my trading session getting this up and running, but looks like it's worth it. The only disadvantage is having notepad in the foreground - I haven't found a way to keep it on dictation into notepad when NT7 charts are in front.

I can't post it direct on the forum like this so I'm going to use it as the basis of my session review and edit it as I go along.

So I missed the set-up at 14:30 messing around with the speech thing. A big false start would not have been fun.

But looking at the wrong chart, caught myself getting engrossed in the 1-min chart again.

Missed another set-up at 14:45

My theory is that this is some sort of elongated triangle, so the range should compress and lead to a break-out at some point this afternoon. The swing count is broken badly.

On the hourly charts it looks like hitting the SMA50 and bouncing - or even selling off back to 1.3000, but set-up 2 is clearly bullish with the down-up twin bars followed by a stall - three green bars accelerating so I'm long

I'm in, I bought at the ask with a limit order and collected a pip slippage my way. Apparently this is better than market orders - still learning, and not so easy in sim either. Stops tight because this is a low probability set-up thanks to the sideways action so far.

Very little heat on this trade until it runs into resistance randomly mid-way between set-up and target. I used the two part stop to get out first when it looked ugly by pulling up the first stop into the market, and just leaving the second stop to get hit, trading for the chance of getting the target.

16:00 Something happened to the bear strength - it's gone all choppy

The break-out of this congestion should be the new trend direction.

Time is 1615 We are currently in a down swing And there are too many conflicting indications

The last four bear swings with more than 25 points were all strong, except the current one which was really week.

But time is 16 30 - We are in the middle of a stall

Okay I am in, three red bars accelerating - how late was I on that? Lost 3 or 4 points dithering for no reason about nothing. Low probability on this trade because of the sideways nature of it all

Target one was hit.

That is a big lower tail on that 3-min bar. Now we're in the pull back. Target 2 is at 1.3050

i moved stop two right down to the new setup, this stall at 1.3062.

I'm trying to play this new set up while my old trade is still going.

I am bearish, but I have nothing to prove it (turns out to be a bad impulse - just impatience)

We're in another stall at 1.3059 right on the SMA50 and I've moved the stop down again. I've also put another sell order in just below the stall at 1.3055 as the market moves down more - but there was no signal, not even 3 bars (the poker equivalent would be a low pair).

I'm in again. I have 3 stops clustered around 1.3059. It's ugly. The move down retraces and I want out. You'd not think the market would hover around the low point of the day so much like this and then retrace, but it reminds me of times I've seen it do that before, so I hit the "close position" key combo.

Holy Automated Trade Management, Batman! IB is slow at responding and I clicked on close position again and guess what, I reversed my position.

OK done, paying 2 or 4 points for my stupid order handling.

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Today's Result

Trade 1: 5.5 and 2.5 points
Trade 2: 11 and 15.5 points
Trade 3: -2.5 and -3.5 points
Trade 4 (in error): -2 points

Total 26.5 points with 50K lots

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.

Last edited by Adamus; April 11th, 2013 at 09:07 AM.
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  #654 (permalink)
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A little off topic Adamus but Windows speech recognition? I've been looking for something to transcribe for a long time. I'll have to do some research on this. Are you using Windows 7? Thanks

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  #655 (permalink)
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Yes, Windows 7. I was surprised to discover it myself. It's in Start -> All Programs -> Accessories -> Ease of Access -> Windows Speech Recognition.

Just make sure you don't say 'bye bye' when someone is leaving and you've got NT7 open

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #656 (permalink)
Learn to swim
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Man, that is the tip of the year! I take notes from books all of the time and it is such a pain in the ass to set the book down, try to keep it open, and type at the same time. This will also be great for notating trades as well. Thank you!

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  #657 (permalink)
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2013-04-11 Thursday sim trading session


The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)
10. Seeing traders getting trapped out of a trade on a stop run is as reliable
a signal as seeing them getting trapped in a trade. If the market suddenly
runs stops and then resumes its trend, this is a reliable setup for
at least a scalper's profit.

Lesson Learnt Last Session

My review yesterday was poor, I had little time left over after experimenting with the Speech Recognition system.

From the last trade, I had too much on my mind trying to manage the existing position and trying to trade the new set-up. I'll have to hold back from trying to do that until I've defined exactly what I should do in those situations. With less attention to price action, I just dived in for no good reason. Lack of discipline again.

Also the opposite problem - not getting in on a signal and hesitating. I didn't make notes properly with the speech recognition thing so I can find a reason for it now.

Lesson learnt I guess: don't try to do too much at once, it can all easily go wrong.

Goal today

Practice discipline, resolve and note-taking.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,613
Position size: US$100K in two parts
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Normal session, no holidays or special events.


forexfactory.com
 
Code
07:00 	EUR 		German Final CPI m/m
07:45 	EUR 		French CPI m/m
09:00 	EUR 		ECB Monthly Bulletin 					
13:30 	USD 		Unemployment Claims
	USD 		FOMC Member Bullard Speaks 					
	USD 		Import Prices m/m
14:00 	GBP 		MPC Member Tucker Speaks 					
15:00 	USD 		Treasury Sec Lew Speaks 					
15:30 	USD 		Natural Gas Storage
18:00 	USD 		30-y Bond Auction
19:30 	USD 		Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

Higher Time-frame

The up-swing continues on the sell-off since the start of Feb, but it has to go twice as far again if it wants to make the daily trend into a rally rather than just a retrace in a sell-off.

The 60-min charts bounced nicely off the SMA50 for another leg up presumably.

Volatility

20 day volatility 109 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 19 (10 year max 96)
Still decreasing for the month, hourly volatility could easily hit 10.

Asian Session

30 point range, 4 points volatility, went down and back up with lots of action from 1:00am to 3:00am. Quite abrupt reversal points, quite choppy trend change with lots of overlap, stalls and tails.

London Session

Continued the Asian trend up to the old swing high @1.3135, totally ignoring 1.3100. Mixed reversals, not too much overlap, few tails, but plenty of stalling, swing count not so broken up.

Trader State

Physical: good to go
Mental: fine except annoyance at being so late starting
Fatigue: bad again. Concentration lapses.
Motivation: Malcolm Beech: [to Jack] If you're looking for the truth, that's where you'll find it.

Session Review

Started at 14:00 with this sell-off accelerating through 1.31
So 1.3100 potential set-up 1. impatient - dangerous impulses to act without thinking.

At 14:30 it dropped down to 1.3090 and went quiet. With this protracted 10 min stall I expected it to do something weird but didn't see anything that told me anything.

It broke its stall and dropped to 1.3085, bounced back up to 00 - set-up 2, a push up an a push down, and back to where we were. The push-up was stronger and it felt OK going long - no great feeling, just OK.

The question was is it a trend change

Tried going long but bailed out too soon, guess I just wasn't certain enough, the pattern that I had in mind just wasn't happening

Getting a lot of distractions and sensing a lot of frustration at this set-up.
Take a break

Set-up 3 - time 15:15, reversal pattern seemed to be canceling out the bull strength - potential retrace to 00 was interesting.
Wrong again, no problem.

Set-up 4 around 1.3120.
This bull swing had three swings and I felt bearish all the way up.

It's difficult to read anything from this.

Time 15:44, the rally put in another swing up, continued but looks weaker, conflicting with the daily trend,
And my feel for the market's non-existent, but at least I know that.

Time 16:00, and the breakout at 1.3120 retraced badly. It moved too quick here, no idea what might be going on, I just sat and watched, and felt pretty out of touch.

I realised how few bounces of the EMA there have been today.

Time 16:30, set-up 5 back to 1.3120. Things start to unravel. Got an entry that looked good. Put my stops under the set-up but then drew them in too quick, got hammered on a retrace down below the entry bar.

Really trying to put the fear to one side - fear because I don't want this trade to fail, don't want to see my equity drop more.

Now I'm trying long again. Got a doji entry signal here, but the movement has gone out of the market.
I figured there would be a lot more action here but I'm confusing stall with action, it's so quiet.

I looks like everyone is trapped here, not just longs. This is like chinese torture. I think it's traders on the 60min time-frame making the decisions here. I thought about bailing out, but the chance of a profit feels too good - invalid feeling. Was the original premise still justified? That is what I should be asking myself. I couldn't find any reason one way or the other - I should have bailed.

Then came some bad discipline - even while I told myself I was done, I'd run out of the willpower to resist the lure of a trade that would win me back some of these lost points. I took a short, it felt right, and was immediately in profit but stalled and again, instead of bailing out, I waited and got stopped out.

The mind needs blood sugar to maintain willpower, and today I'm fasting so I have low levels.

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Today's Result

Trade 1: -1.5, -1.5 points
Trade 2: -3, -3
Trade 3: -2, -3
Trade 4: -1.5, -2

Total: -17.5

Lessons Learnt

1) Distractions are seriously bad for trading, and are cumulative

2) Conflcted between putting stops right out the way to avoid retraces, and pulling them up quickly if I'm not happy with the position - trade 1 I mean - not obvious.

3) Being scared with a position on is fear of having stops hit and fear of account equity going down - must just get used to it

4) Thinking about the profit I will get on a position if it hits the target feels good, and stops me making a rational decision about exiting.

5) Self-control runs out at the end of the session as the market goes into late afternoon coma

Good lessons for me I think. Kind of embarrassing but that's part of the game.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #658 (permalink)
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2014-04-12 Friday sim trading session


The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)
11. Many beginners want excitement and tend to overtrade. Many great
traders find trading to be lonely and boring, but very profitable.

Lesson Learnt Last Session

Disclipine must be learned, it's built up slowly and lost really quickly.

For a peak performance mind-set, discipline improves it, distractions degrade it. Routines e.g. action affirmation statements, visualizations etc improve it - but recognizing when to use them is key.

Goal today

For every trading decision I make, I have to double-check it to make sure that it's either rational, or if emotional, then from somewhere where it's meant to come from, not from impatience, fear of losing, greed for winning, etc.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,536
Position size: US$100K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Another day in paradise. Standard session times.


forexfactory.com
 
Code
07:00 	EUR 	Low	German WPI m/m 	
10:00 	EUR 	Med	Industrial Production m/m 		
	GBP 	Low	CB Leading Index m/m 	
Day 1 	EUR 	Med	ECOFIN Meetings 					
All Day 	EUR 	Med	Eurogroup Meetings 					
13:30 	USD 	High	Core Retail Sales m/m 	
	USD 	High	PPI m/m 			
	USD 	High	Retail Sales m/m 
	USD 	Med	Core PPI m/m 	
13:45 	USD 	Med	FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks 					
14:55 	USD 	High	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 
	USD 	Low	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 
15:00 	USD 	Med	Business Inventories m/m 
17:30 	USD 	High	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Higher Time-frame

Yesterday's confident prediction of a rally up and away from the MA was blown out of the water and the hourly bars instead made a nice looking double top and dipped back below the MA again. Currently @1.3050 and more action around 1.3000 seems totally reasonable.

Alternatively for the same probability it might make stay within yesterday's range, filling out a bit of consolidation to put in a swing high at this point and to get back into the earlier bear trend from the start of Feb.

It makes my analysis easier if the higher time-frame trend is 50:50 long or short.

Volatility

20 day volatility 108 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 19 (10 year max 96)
Same as yesterday - decreasing for the month, hourly volatility could easily hit 10.

Asian Session

Range 26 points, volatility peaked at 3 points.
Quite bullish, regular, short swings in trend with some bigger abrupt reversals, only a couple of choppy periods, ending mid-range.

London Session

No Asian reversal, straight into a flowing 4-hour sell-off with a bit of chop around the 1.3065 - 75 zone as for all this week. Nice trending action with mixed abrupt/rounded reversals, swing count, not so many tails or BABs, what looks like great interaction around S/R at all levels shown. Showing a bit more bounce at the EMA20 than yesterday but still not as usual.

Great action around set-up zones. Great action during usual 11:00 to 12:00 dead period.

Trader State

Physical: good
Mental: ok, better than yesterday - in spite of yesterday
Fatigue: still poor
Motivation:
Maximus: I've seen much of the rest of the world. It is brutal and cruel and dark, Rome is the light.
Marcus Aurelius: Yet you have never been there.

Session Notes and Review

Not using voice recognition today - too much software training involved, and still
need notepad open in front of the chart.

14:00 start. Bounce down & back up again after bullish news - why did it drop anyway since it was bullish?
Strange formation in this set-up on the 1-min, choppy.

Impatience overload searching for the next trade.

1.3065 - 75 is a zone of complete indecision. This zone is signal-free.

Keeping the impatience chained - my job is to sit here and wait til I see the money sitting there waiting to be picked up

Set-up Spotted a pull-back, looked good, didn't feel anything though.
It was at the edge of the zone, so looked like a bounce about to happen following
those 2 big bars, making it a neat retrace, also close enough to EMA20 to bounce.
Pulled stops in to within 3 points.
Killed.
Bah! Didn't I say to myself yesterday that I shouldn't be trying to predict exact patterns? Be right on the
direction and be a bit flexible with the timing and put the stop where it proves the premise was wrong.
I just didn't write that into my notes. OK now I'm going to carve it in stone in my notes.

News event coming up now - 14:55. Now right on the EMA20 and right under the SMA50

It hit the EMA20 and bounced finally. Now at the SMA50. Set-up 2. 14:55 was high impact news - took it up to the SMA I guess
From SMA, a bounce down. Either it holds and takes us to '00 or it breaks and we turn bullish

I'm building a set-up in my mind where it bounces off the SMA - but the whole channel from 14:00 - the
bottom channel trendline has to hit or get really close to the SMA. Then it has
to stall and give a clear signal.

Broken thro SMA and knocking on 1.3100's door.

Now it's come off 1.3100 and looks weaker. I'm looking for a stall.
Exit stops would have to be 1.3103
I want to enter at 1.3095 if it stalls, but it's not stalling quietly enough.

So few set-ups today.

Set-up 2 I put an entry limit at 1.3094 and it was hit, I'm short. Stops at 1.3102
This is a test of 1.3100 - or even a break-out failure of 1.3100 by a pip.
Day's trend is down.
We hit 1.3100 and bounced down.
We hit the SMA and I think it's going to close down below it too.
There's bearish strength showing, holding the bulls below 1.31.
Should get confirmation after 30 mins that it can't take it further
It was right on the EMA20 which is flat - looking for it to turn down behind price now.
Potential unwinding of long positions from trend as we go into the weekend
Negative points: no signal/trigger shown; late in the afternoon;
8 points of risk. 20 and 30 points of reward.

Looks like the market waiting for Bernanke. Flat as a pancake for > 30 mins
60min chart staying above SMA50 not good - but not so bad either.
Do I have to bail out before Bernanke's speech or do I wait for the PA?
A PA trigger to go long out of this stall would be grounds for an exit

Feel the fear. Mmmm hmmm. Equity would go under £95,500, mmmm hmmm.
A retrace of 10 points right up to '00 is possible.
Trapped traders? Didn't see much room for longs to get on board above 1.3100 so can't expect a big stop run.
There may be some BO traders putting entries below this big stall. Or they might have all gone home....
Target 1 just above 1.3075
Target 2 just above 1.3065
Expected PA: it will just tail off downwards into the close.
Possible hiccups: Bernanke set to speak @17:30

Have to deal with the equity loss fear by accepting that the money is gone now,
my stops are in place, the money is risked.

Thinking about other traders - what are the bulls planning? If I was bullish
my ideal trade would be to catch a dip down to the SMA50 and ride the bounce
back thro 1.3100. But a bunch of complete rookies would be waiting for it to
get above 1.3100 again, plus lots of shorts will have their stops just above
1.3100. That's too close. But 8 points of risk is a lot already. The last
interaction at 1.3100 was quick and direct - no shenanigans.

Moved the stops 1 point further above 1.31 - now at 1.3103 & 1.3103'5

Bernanke is on. Looks like some PA coming up at 17:30. OK, nothing then. How long does he talk for?
Done - he said nothing interesting.
It moved up, moved down again and then put in the move I was looking for, but failed to hit my target by 2 points and retraced all the way up to B/E and past 1.3100. So much for bulls unwinding their positions. I guess I was trying too hard on this one, looking at the 60-min chart for half of my cues.

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Today's Result

Trade 1: -2 and -2.5 points
Trade 2: 0.5 & 0.5 points

Total -3.5 points
Equity now: £95,508

Lessons Learnt

Don't think there were any really - just a bit more experience doing what I'm meant to be doing, learning to accept my emotions and accept or reject them as necessary.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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Windows Speech Recognition

This speech recognition app in Win7 looks like it could be great since the training is going well - but I can't work out how to dictate to it and have it run in the background so I can have the NT7 charts in the foreground and not have to switch windows all the time.

I put a question up on answers.microsoft.com

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The Tao of Al (Page 407, Reading Price Charts BBB)
12. Simple is better. You don't need indicators, and you should only look at
one chart. If you can't make money off a single chart with no indicators,
adding more things to analyze will only make it more difficult. Also,
only trade the very best setups until you are consistently profitable.

Lesson Learnt Last Session

Don't try to predict precise patterns. Go with the flow until the PA kills the premise.

Goal today

Didn't do a weekly review - bad trader. OK, will roll it up to next week-end and put a highlight in my calendar for Friday to make sure I make time for it.

Risk Management

Account - sim: GBP 95,007
Position size: US$100K
Max risk per trade: $200
Daily time-out: -$400
Daily full stop: -$600

Session Details

Normal day, normal week.
Discovered an evil bug in my new S/R indicator that took 2 hours to sort out, so starting late again.


forexfactory.com
 
Code
00:01 	GBP 	Low	Rightmove HPI m/m 
10:00 	EUR 	Low	Trade Balance 
13:30 	USD 	Med	Empire State Manufacturing Index 
14:00 	EUR 	High	ECB President Draghi Speaks 
	USD 	Med	TIC Long-Term Purchases 
15:00 	USD 	Low	NAHB Housing Market Index

Higher Time-frame

The rally from the start of the month is either going through a choppy phase, with a possible retrace to 1.3000 or the market's putting in a swing high to return to the bigger sell-off from the start of Feb. Bullish 25%, neutral 25%, bearish 50%.

Volatility

20 day volatility 107 (10 year max 287)
20 hour volatility 18 (10 year max 96)
Still declining on the daily basis for the month/quarter

Asian Session

50 point range, 4.5 volatility, with big action around 04:00am and definitively bearish. Quite choppy, abrupt reversals, tails, some big bars, poor swing count.

London Session

Small range, usual volatility, no morning reversal, not much going on.

A little bit choppy, rounded reversals, just sideways.

S/R respected.

Trader State

Physical: OK
Mental: OK
Fatigue: Tired - bad again. Recurring problem going on here but actually got as much sleep as I thought I needed. Need more then.
Motivation: When the Urgent is Good, the Good can keep you from your Best.

Session Notes and Review

Started late but don't appear to have missed much except more of the same range-bound trading from Friday.

Looks like the SMA50 is in play, and 1.3100 level.

Very bad trading conditions.

Taking a look at the GBP/USD - at a set-up at the low of the day, but no signs that it will do anything more today. It's all too late in the afternoon.

Today's Result

No results.

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