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Trading spot fx euro using price action

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  #511 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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Taking a reversal trade, and with bigger risk for a bigger reward.

Now after the fact, I still can't see any reason not to go for the bigger target (the Asian low). If I'd been trading the interaction at the S/R level where it turned, I could have saved some points but I had stopped then. Guess I made the right decisions but was still wrong.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #512 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Relatively quiet this morning. Unremarkable B/E trade.


After the fact, again the market retraced after my entry further than I would have trusted it to, and then carried on to the target. in fact it made a lower low than the low of the PB setup i was trding. not sure there's any sense in trying to take that kind of heat.

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  #513 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Quiet again. No setups apart from a possible bearish pull-back, but that needed a bit too much stretching of imagination.

Another wild day but the early morning really offered nothing.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #514 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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More bearish action.

Caught the trade, although I thought it wasn't a great bet. In my mind I was playing out a B/O-P/B at an S/R level where the market had actually been hanging around for the best half of the Asian session. So it was hardly a B/O when it was just moving away from the S/R. In fact it was a B/O-P/B failure that convinced me to short, which now seems even more illogical - in other words, it wasn't one of the setups I have in my trading rules, but I'd rationalised it somehow.

I'd decided the market had to go somewhere since it certainly wasn't going to stay still after sitting there for 4 hours. It failed to go up, so it had to go down and not reverse again before my target. Which it did. Not a setup from my trading manual. I got in too early for any kind of decent trade and the retrace that followed my entry was really the setup I should define.

I mean, when the volatility kicked in at 07:00am, there was nothing I can put my finger on to say which direction it was going to go until the move down retraced a little bit. I avoided jumping in earlier on the move upwards just before 7:00, and I should have resisted jumping in on the move down just because the move up had reversed. When the move down retraced a little but couldn't make any ground, the bulls fizzled and it turned into a pull-back. That was my setup. So I was too early.

I remember thinking at the mid-point of the pull-back before it was in, "maybe I should just bail out now since this whole trade is just 50:50 a winner or loser." Yes, mistake - a fortunate mistake.

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  #515 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Missed Monday, had to get up early and leave for family stuff.

Today went well, a B/O-P/B failure was in the making as I logged on already. Missed doing some of my prep work, not sure that's a good thing but it worked out. Let's see whether I still think I did alright when I review it later.

Later: in fact today was very similar to yesterday - Asian session was quiet, finished at low and then market stayed there making a couple of false moves with complete retraces before moving off - except today it moved up not down.

Just looked at Monday to see what I missed and it was an evil setup. A quiet Asian session is normally more predictable but 2 false moves from the B/O-P/B at the Asian low before it finally shot away down south. That is a prime example in support of not moving your initial stop too early - or perhaps, at all

I think the key to managing both setups today and yesterday was to keep an eye whether the bars are staying above the MA or not.

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  #516 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Not looking good but have to leave trade to sink or swim

And then I didn't. I missed the price action signal to bail out (see LTF screenshot) where price action again hit the MA and bounced back - instead I let it take out my full stop and reversed. That went really well but I was lucky. In hindsight, I had my stop too close and my thinking was all wrong. Instead of thinking, "am I in a position to carry on trading?" I thought "one more trade and I'll make back this loss". Stupid. I had some kind of assumption that it would be a winner before I made the trade, and then felt really stupid after entering and it went against me.

I had figured that I would bail out from the 2nd trade quickly if it went against me and that was wrong. I have carefully planned methods of bailing out but I just thought I would go for a quick scalp. Luckily I didn't put my stop only a couple of points away - I put it somewhere more sensible, but then again another mistake: the actual place to put the stop was further up, but it didn't fit the 1:1 minimum R:R I wanted, so I didn't put it quite as far away. Bad trading. Didn't get hit, but it almost did.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #517 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Waiting for a bit more good luck.

Obviously with the huge drop after my trade, I would have done well to take the reversal today as well, but I was gone by then. My bad trading from the start though. Started late and was distracted trying to the analysis that I didn't get done last night. Then my daughter got up early and wanted to sit on my lap for a cuddle - how could I say no. So I wasn't 100% focused and paid too much attention to the bullish Asian session instead of remembering the Asian session trend counts for nothing. Enough of that. More focus tomorrow.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #518 (permalink)
 fibfisherman 
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Hi Adamus,

2nd day in I row I've checked your thread and found that I'm in a similar trade to you however I entered earlier and the last pull back just missed my stop. You entry was much better. Current weakness not looking good for this trade though.

You're trading Lance Begg's system right?

Cheers,

FF

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  #519 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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That's right - Lance Beggs. B/Os at S/R or P/Bs. Where are you based?


Whoops, dumb question. An Aussie I see. So you're trading after work? Or full time?

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #520 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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This one was difficult! That was the biggest bar I've ever seen on the 3-min. I think the previous record was 80 points. 112!

Couldn't hold my trade - don't know if it will turn out to be good to scratch it.


After the fact: noticed I was very bearish after the big push up, but should have been bullish. However there were no real opportunities for B/Os or P/Bs that I could see. The trade I put on was the failure of the B/O continuation at 1.2600 although I was pretty worried about the volatility and incorporated the 1.2593 S/R line into it, so I was looking for it to break below that too, which it did. It also broke a swing low and a line up from the big swing low and it broke the MA, but still it wasn't going to go down. Guess I was lucky not to lose anything.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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