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Trading spot fx euro using price action


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Trading spot fx euro using price action

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  #291 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker: IB/IQFeed
Trading: EUR/USD
 
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Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
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shahab121 View Post
Hi

Why do you use NT?
Is it because you trade from the charts or you need something in NT?
Why dont you just use a charting package. I use ProRealTime : Real Time Technical Analysis Software for charting.
It might help.

NT7 has automation features which I don't believe are replicated elsewhere.

e,g. I can set NT to manage exit orders in a variety of ways once my entry stop is hit.

Or I can set up a strategy to place my entry order automatically.

The problems it has are few compared to the benefits and ease of use.

Slight downside is that I can't set it up to keep the y-axis scale fixed and simultaneously keep the latest price bar on the screen. There are a couple of other dumb but insignificant issues like that. Plus of course it costs license money.

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  #292 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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No trades today apart from a fat-fingered f***-up market entry when I was trying to place a limit order.

Don't know what to do about my fat fingers. I'm either going to start using a real mouse instead of the laptop touchpad, or I'm going to put the order entry confirmation back on. I shouldn't be trying to place quick orders anyway, I can put the stops and limits far from the price I want to enter at, and then move them up quickly and easily enough.

Pretty difficult trading away from the home-office and trying to get down to it when nothing else is following a routine. So late start and no opportunities to trade. Not advised to trade anyway in thin market.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #293 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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No trades today. Gave up early after nothing happened for 3 hours.

Missed the only true setup that happened as I was called away from the screen for 20 mins. Lack of discipline, not being able to say "not now".

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #294 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
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Back from holiday, spent the last two days getting back into the theory, reading and checking my previous trading.

Today was OK because I didn't make any serious errors that would have lost money, just errors with missed opportunities. I guess my focus wasn't 100% today as I got back into the flow of trading.

Worst error was when I lost control and exited in panic on a sharp move against my position, to find I'd exited at the high and the market reversed back down again clear of where my stops had been before exiting. Typical. I wasn't focusing clearly on managing my trade according to plan and let my fear of losing a few pips get the better of me. I should have been clearer with myself whether I was expecting an immediate push in my direction or whether I was trying to ride the swings.

Several missed trades that were mostly easy entries and all but one would have been successful - the beauty of hindsight. Need to work on my focus, get it up sharper and get my entry orders in place.

Monday's goals -
(1) focus more when managing trades, be clear about management option taken.
(2) Must put stop entry orders in place to make sure I take setups instead of dithering. I can always enter at a better price before it gets hit. (I've had this goal before).

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #295 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
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Made 3 errors on my first trade going long on a break up & out of a weak bear channel, and got poleaxed. Monday morning, SNAFU

I entered too soon, which was bad because I wouldn't have entered at all if I'd waited for the setup to pan out. My long entry was at the high of a swing high - bit of a give-away that I messed it up.

Then I set the stop way too far away, because there'd been a spike down earlier and I put the stop under that. Should have ignored the spike and if I'd waited for the stall, it would have given me the stop position without much thinking required.

For my third error, I should have reversed (or if I'd not made any errors, I would have been flat and ready to short anyway) when I saw the big bear bar playing out, signaling the failure of the setup I was working.

So I lost 13 pips instead of making 20.

The rest of the day didn't exactly improve.

From my two goals yesterday, I half managed the first, to take the setups that appeared using an entry stop in case I failed to get in on a trigger, and I managed to control my stop handling broadly speaking, although I could have done it better there.

Tomorrow I have to control my entries better, that's what's costing me.

Secondly my analysis was not so hot today, it appeared that the market wasn't paying too much respect to the S/R levels, although in hindsight it wasn't so bad. I guess I need to stay out of the market or re-analyse if I start thinking the S/R levels aren't working anymore.

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  #296 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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I've got to the point where I'm repeating previous mistakes and it's making me a bit depressed. For the first time in a while I thought that maybe I'm not cut out for this game. So I thought about it about and discussed it a bit with my girlfriend (who might say stuff that is 1000% incorrect but it's good just to put stuff into words) and I figure that it must be one of or a combination of:

(1) Over the Xmas/NY break I forgot some of what I learnt in sim in December and my notes didn't help bring it back
(2) I didn't take it seriously enough, like a bomb disposal expert would.
(3) I didn't follow my rules. All my checklists mean nothing if I don't stick to them and learn them and internalise them so I can do this fast enough when a setup is on.
(4) And that makes me think of a fourth too - sometimes a setup is too fast so I stumble over my process but then I should stay out, but I don't - see (2)

I can make mistakes and that includes moments of being crap but I will find a way to bring myself back every time to the straight and narrow - that is my main goal today.

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  #297 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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Managed to lose my chart mark-up for the second half of the session today. V.v.v.v annoying. I've now put an 'indicator' in NT7 on the chart to stop the chart window closing unless I confirm that I want it to close.

Today was pretty much the same as yesterday. Price action, I mean.

I missed a whole load of good trades and in hindsight, it should have been a really good day. Not sure that my performance lives up to that. 75% of the setups were great, but I only got about 2 or 3 them right. I'll have to run market replay and see if I can see why I was blind to the signals. Probably stuff I mentioned in my previous post.

Several setups had killer retraces which took out my stops when I'd managed to get in early and then the big moves failed and made good entries, none of which I picked up on.

Wasted a lot of time during setups not thinking straight, just dithering whether I should enter or not instead of checking for the signals I was meant to be looking for. Bad.

I also picked up on some other patterns which I see appearing in my trading. First of all I'm putting my stops too close, closer than the space that the setup demands, and all for the want of saving a few pips. I also pulled up my trailing stops a bit quick too today which I'm normally OK at.

And then I also noticed I wasn't taking trades unless I could get 3:1 R:R - that's the wrong way round. I mean 3 reward to 1 risk. I guess I'm turning risk-averse but I should be taking everything that's better than 50:50.

That's about 5 different goals for tomorrow. I'll have to refine it tomorrow before I start.

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  #298 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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I replayed one of my entries to see why I keep messing them up when in hindsight they seem so easy and it boils down to focus - I must follow these steps when deciding to enter or not:

to trade a Break-out (Principle 6 - strength at S/R or Principle 4 - sideways trend at range boundary on strength) I have to have patience to follow the steps on the 1min chart and resolve to commit when done:
(1) How far does the break-out bar go past the S/R level?
- a long way = continuation likely
- not far = failure likely
(2) How big is the pull-back from the extreme of the BO?
- all the way to the S/R level & more = failure likely
- short = continuation likely
(3) When the stall develops, does price reach the BO extreme?
- yes = continuation likely
- no = failure likely
(4) Check R:R 50:50 last acceptable entry point
(5) Check best exit stop location
(6) Get entry order ready
(7) Watch for a trigger
- 3 small bars in one direction
- spring pattern / upthrust pattern
- spike & ledge
- failure of a pattern in opposite direction
(8) if it agrees with bias from 1,2 & 3, pull stop order in to market

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  #299 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker: IB/IQFeed
Trading: EUR/USD
 
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Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 471 given, 786 received

A tough day.

Revamping my approach to analysing break-outs and taking entries definitely helped. Previously I hesitated and the moment was lost, but now I'm analysing more - the only problem is that I often just give up on the setup which I should not do.

I realise that I was confusing myself by referring back to the 3min chart when I was trying to negotiate a setup on the 1min chart. I'd be unsure of what was going on with the 1min bars so I'd check the 3min chart and that just makes it all worse.

Sometimes what the 3min chart shows is a different story to the 1min chart, so I must stick to 1min chart while setup is in the making. I'm losing opportunities because of this.

The break-out entries are the most frequent setups, but sometimes I get pull-back setups as well and I'm having similar problems with them - I'm too slow setting up an order or I even forget and then when I want to enter, the order entry menu hides the action and I can't handle it so I don't place the order. Insanely beginner-level stuff.

So I think I'll have to use hotkeys to enter the orders at the market.

I only managed two trades today, while I missed 9 for those reasons. The two trades I did manage were 1 good trade - good as in a good entry, although the trade failed - and 1 bad trade where my analysis was up the creek. The market was continuing what seemed a never-ending consolidation at 1.2700 and out of frustration with the break-out pull-back / failure setups, I decided to trade it as a pull-back on the trend. Slightly crazy idea and it cost me when my short got totally slam-dunked immediately when my trigger failed spectacularly in a burst of volatility.

Focus focus focus. The bomb disposal expert would be splattered across the neighbourhood.

The shock not only blew every chance of getting in on the failure trigger but probably messed up my analysis of the next setup too.

So next time:

(1) use hotkeys to enter at the decision point of the setup analysis (danger is entering the wrong way, knowing my weaknesses)
(2) stick to the chart I'm meant to be using at the point in question, e.g. 1min chart for setups
(3) focus more!

Otherwise, with only two trades, can't say I had much chance to implement the improvements I targetted yesterday.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #300 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012


I take it you are doing some scalping on that 1 min chart...and all that text is that computer generated or are you typing all that in...hats off to you if you are inputing all of that.

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