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Trading spot fx euro using price action

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  #271 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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Only half succeeded in applying yesterday's goals.

Tomorrow - must try harder.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #272 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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Reduced trading session today, only trading from 11:30 to 15:30 but still enough time to learn from my mistakes.

My main mistakes today were:

a) not actually doing the analysis in the first place at crucial points in the trade plan
It was an unusual situation with a big spike in the middle of a setup so I had a lot more to consider than under normal circumstances, in other words the reason I wasn't doing it was that I was quite confused by some of the price action - so I didn't forget, I just didn't get beyond the initial interpretation.

b) and when I did get beyond 'it looks bullish / bearish", I read the market badly, missing a ton of signs that I should have taken into account.

What conclusions can I draw from this? Probably the best course of action was to stand aside which I considered, violating another rule - only trading when it's obvious what to do.

I think my goal for tomorrow will be to make sure I know when I have done the best analysis I can, and to note down more bullish signs vs bearish signs, and to keep a mental note that I have done the analysis, so that I know I'm not flying blind, like I did today.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #273 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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9 trades.

Not bad result in terms of pips but a bucket load of mistakes. I think basically I only made 2 good trades, and messed up 7 and missed a few more.

My goals were to make sure I carried out a good analysis of bull vs bear strength and weakness, and to establish my last wholesale price at a setup (aka last good entry point) and the stop and targets before entering.

To a certain extent I did this but I discovered that my estimate of the last wholesale price was giving me last good entry points which I thought were so poor I would never use it. On one trade I also realised that I'd missed the whole push of order flow which I was trying to ride and had entered just as the order flow stopped and a stall set in. That's one of the charts below.

Another issue is with exit management. Up until today I was managing my exits either as "loose stops" or as "tight stops" (or scalping) and I wasn't using any sound basis to decide, I was almost flipping a coin in my head. Today I realised that I need to manage my stops with reference to my expectations of what the market was going to do when I entered. I had literally just entered a trade thinking the market was about to step off a cliff, and in fact it did nothing, and then went the other way. I figured it was going to fall off a cliff because it had just done that twice before in this session, and when suddenly it didn't and I got stopped out, I was the fool thinking "oh I'll use loose stops now because I'm always getting stopped out". Of course that was dumb. If it was going to fall, I wouldn't need any stops, so tight stops would be best just in case it failed.

Later on I did something similar, thinking the price action showed a reversal in process, but I forgot I'd just been managing my last trade on the 3min chart with 3min price action, and the action I was looking at now was on the 1min chart and not nearly as significant - I realised after I'd dived in

I completely missed a bear channel break-out, I didn't even see the channel. I just thought it was something weird and new. I'm talking about the 12:00 to 12:30 swing where it alternated green / red / green / red all the way. I guess it hypnotised me.

Re goals from yesterday, I should have carried out the bull vs bear strength / weakness analysis more often.

I think also a couple of the trades were just unlucky. The second-to-last trade - the only reason I had not to be bearish still was the reversal bar at the S/R level - and generally there's some kind of reversal signal at an S/R level as the market pulls back after the BO - where it's going to continue or fail.

So, goals for tomorrow:

(1) refine my bull vs bear strength/weakness analysis to get quicker at it
(2) improve my 'order flow forecasting' to work out where the last wholesale price is.

PS Big Mike: if I'm taking up too much bandwidth and server space with my swathe of screenshot mark-ups, just let me know

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #274 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Adamus View Post
PS Big Mike: if I'm taking up too much bandwidth and server space with my swathe of screenshot mark-ups, just let me know

Not at all. Keep right on going.

Mike

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  #275 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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6 trades taken, 7 missed.

1: profitable but messed up entry, going in unprepared
2 & 3: profitable but missed entries
4: B/E
5: profitable but stops too close, only got B/E
6: bad entry, not a valid trade if had waited to see BO & PB action
7, 8 & 9: profitable but missed entries (PBs on way down after 13:30)
10 & 11: valid but failed and missed them anyway (at 14:00 lows)
12: bad entry, would have avoided if I did the prep
13: good profitable.

If I was trading every trade well..... the pigs are taxi-ing to the runway and ready for take-off.

Lessons learnt: I need to be quicker, to have some kind of checklist in mind to run through before each trade - have I got the correct principle? have I got an up-to-the-minute read on the bias? do I know which setup is developing? do I have an idea where the order flow will appear? where is the stop going? is the R:R alright? Then place the order!

Next session: implement that checklist. Don't enter a trade without doing it.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #276 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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A quiet trending day which offered a new set of challenges.

I was bearish all the way but thought it kept getting too weak at key points to offer any high probability setups.

I took 1 trade and missed 1 good trade, perhaps missed 3 more trades in the same direction.

The 1 trade I did take was a disaster. I skipped a crucial step in my new checklist - falling at the first hurdle.

It was so quiet I'd added a big trend channel line down, just for something to do, and then I invented a plan to trade it. Instead of something simple I made it too complicated, trying to find a setup in each direction and
giving myself too much to keep in mind. So the moral of the story is Keep It Simple - even when it's quiet.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #277 (permalink)
 thewardiknowof 
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For your range on chart three what if you drew the top of it at the high of the 11:24 candle and the bottom at the low of the swing which was formed at the 11:33 candle. this would have given you a TST (short) where you made your trade. I usually find these difficult when there is a supply or demand line running through the middle of the range like this. Hindsight brings clarity though. Keep it up, your learning is improving!

I really like how you have this chart displayed and marked up.

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  #278 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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thewardiknowof View Post
For your range on chart three what if you drew the top of it at the high of the 11:24 candle and the bottom at the low of the swing which was formed at the 11:33 candle. this would have given you a TST (short) where you made your trade. I usually find these difficult when there is a supply or demand line running through the middle of the range like this. Hindsight brings clarity though. Keep it up, your learning is improving!

I really like how you have this chart displayed and marked up.

I see what you mean.

What would you have done when that TST failed though? Would you just move the upper range boundary to the high of the 12:44 candle and do it again?

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  #279 (permalink)
 thewardiknowof 
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Adamus View Post
I see what you mean.

What would you have done when that TST failed though? Would you just move the upper range boundary to the high of the 12:44 candle and do it again?

Would 12:44 have been a BOF? If you wen short 1 pip below with a STOP 1 pip above the candle it appears it would have kept the trade short to the bottom of the range which it moved toward with strength at about 13:06, which then (in hindsight) you could have moved T2 to the next level.

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  #280 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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thewardiknowof View Post
Would 12:44 have been a BOF? If you wen short 1 pip below with a STOP 1 pip above the candle it appears it would have kept the trade short to the bottom of the range which it moved toward with strength at about 13:06, which then (in hindsight) you could have moved T2 to the next level.

I'm just imagining what I would have done in real-time and I can only see that move up to 1.3275 as bullish on the way to S/R @1.3281. Then the stall set in so maybe that would have let me think bearish - even more so after the dip down @12:50 and then maybe - just maybe - I would have picked up the break-out down out of what looks like a weak bull channel from 12:50 to 13:00 - which was essentially Principle 2 - weak [bear] trend making CPB.

One of my weak points is spotting narrow ranges. I can pick up on big ranges as a big sideways trend is pretty obvious and the Euro seems to start off the European session inside the Asian session range by default quite a lot.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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