Trading spot fx euro using price action - futures io
futures io



Trading spot fx euro using price action


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Adamus with 599 posts (455 thanks)
    2. looks_two Zwaen with 46 posts (38 thanks)
    3. looks_3 SammyD with 30 posts (12 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Big Mike with 18 posts (17 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Big Mike with 0.9 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Adamus with 0.8 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Zwaen with 0.8 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 SammyD with 0.4 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 114,144 views
    2. thumb_up 619 thanks given
    3. group 51 followers
    1. forum 844 posts
    2. attach_file 898 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 150,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Trading spot fx euro using price action

(login for full post details)
  #261 (permalink)
 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: cTrader
Broker: ThinkForex
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received


Adamus View Post
Just thinking about what you asked, trying to read between the lines.

I generally re-evaluate my bias after every setup, so my FDP can change 10 times a day. Are you deciding on one for the whole day from the higher time frame? Or do you just mean one analysis since the sell-off was so well-structured over the period shown by the chart?

I admit I find it slightly confusing settling on a future trend direction when I know it's a range day and we're near the top or bottom.

I believe you are at the same stage as I am, trading in sim mode for four consecutive profitable weeks. I feel after months of working at this, I have turned a corner. One thing that happened was how I was looking at the FDP. I would figure out which one it was according to my setup. Now I figure out which FDP is in effect (yes sometimes it changes multiple times in a trading session), then from the FDP I know what the higher probability setups I should be looking for. Try this it help me. Example if the price is in an up trend, this is the First FDP (pages 145-146 in volume 2), then the highest probability setups would be PB & CPB (pages 41-50 of volume 3). So these are the only trades I really watch for until the FDP changes. I have the FDP's with their higher probability setups printed on a sheet of paper next to me when trading. Give this a try, focus on the FDP.. find a premise (FDP) and trade it with only the higher probability setups. When price proves the FDP wrong it is replaced by a different one. You can do it, be patient.

Also, regarding your response to Big Mike's question, what one concrete thing fom your review can (and are) you going to do to keep you "Bad day" from happening again?

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to thewardiknowof for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Help with Scale In ATM strategy
NinjaTrader
Multidata
EasyLanguage Programming
Williams Fractal (NT8) indicator - Alert function implem …
NinjaTrader
Simpler Trading - Squeeze Pro indicator
Platforms and Indicators
Tick Data Group Buy
Emini and Emicro Index
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
108 thanks
Most Funding Firms are a Scam
50 thanks
How many day traders are profitable?
26 thanks
Hedging NQ and MNQ 1-10...
13 thanks
Prop Firm Combines Criteria
9 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #262 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker: IB/IQFeed
Trading: EUR/USD
 
Adamus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 471 given, 787 received

[EDIT - I changed the flash card text fundamentally since I first posted it 2 hours ago - you got me thinking as I analysed the setups I'd traded. So I edited it here too - but it's still not succinct enough for me, I'll have to work on it more]

I'll pay more attention to the premise then. At the moment I just analyse the chart and decide where I am on the bullish - bearish spectrum. I do need to develop my awareness in that area more though - I'll bear in mind the way you do it. I'm still nowhere near that corner

I hope another couple of weeks will get me there and I'll finally get what it is to make all these losing trades profitable.

I actually have a cheat-sheet, in fact I have a stack of 10 flash-cards, print-outs glued to the back of some nice postcards - this is the one for Principles of Future Trend Direction, lifted from YTC PAT and edited briefly - I need to flesh them out to be more precise about trends and ranges:


Quoting 
Determine Future Trend Direction
1) Expect a trend to continue in its current state until the next S/R barrier, unless displaying signs of weakness - PBs
2) When a trend shows weakness, higher likelihood of a complex correction rather than a reversal, until the market shows both price acceptance and strength in new direction - CPBs
3) A sideways trend within a range is expected to continue in its current state, unless displaying evidence of strength towards the range boundary – TST, BOF
4) When a sideways trend shows strength towards the range boundary, expect a break of the boundary. Observe price post-break-out for clues as to future direction:
a. Weakness following the break-out – expect a break-out failure and a reversal back within the trading range - BOF
b. Weakness on the pull-back – expect a break-out pull-back and continuation - BPB
5) A non-ranging trend is expected to respect S/R unless strength is displayed on the approach to the S/R boundary - TST or BOF
6) If a free trend shows strength on approach to S/R, expect a break-out & watch post-break-out for clues to future direction:
a. Weakness following the break-out – the expectation is for a break-out failure and a reversal back through S/R - BOF
b. Weakness on the pull-back – the expectation is for a break-out pull-back and continuation – BPB
7) Visualise what price action would validate your assessment of future trend direction
8) Also visualise what price action would invalidate your assessment of future trend direction
9) Setup probability:
i. Steady trend environment: PB, CPB high probability
ii. Weakening trend environment: CPB high probability.
iii.Weakening trend plus break-out of previous swing low in bull trend, swing high in bear: PB is high probability.
iv.Weakening trend: low probability setups include other PB, TST, BOF of swing high in bull, or swing low in bear.
v. Sideways trend with clear intra-range trend: PB, CPB low
vi. Approaching S/R with weakness: high probability for TST
vii. Approaching S/R with strength: BOF, BPB high probability


thewardiknowof View Post
Also, regarding your response to Big Mike's question, what one concrete thing fom your review can (and are) you going to do to keep you "Bad day" from happening again?

The main thing which I am struggling to do is to review my trades properly - I always rush the review because I love trading and tell myself another hour trading would be alright. Plus at the weekends I always have a pile of things to do and they're busier days than the weekdays it seems. Then I struggle to get to bed in time for a decent night's sleep. So essentially I am only going to trade 1 hour today if at all but first I'm going to catch up and analyse deeply exactly what I did Tuesday and Wednesday. Yesterday was another bad day, I think the market is telling me something.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #263 (permalink)
 wldman 
Legendary Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Broker: IB, ToS
Trading: /ES, US Equities/Options
 
wldman's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,384 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 1,987 given, 9,104 received


just caught a post of yours and thought I'd chime in with my unsolicited two cents.

IMO trading off peak hours is a reciepe for disaster. That is to say entering new positions after 11 am or Noon EST for me is generally a non starter. Exit at target or stop, that is as it should be during that time. Many guys are just more comfortable flat over the asian session.

Review your trades....every one of them after your session is over do not wait till the next day.

This stuff about sleep and rest seems like you have been listening to a yoga instructor or one of those reki healers...bologna. Your trading entries and exits should be a conditioned response like a damn machine. The thinking and analysis is done during the non production hours. Don't think at your computer screen, execute based on your precise preperation. The book "How We Decide" might be helpful.

Trade well, Be well.

Wildman

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to wldman for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #264 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker: IB/IQFeed
Trading: EUR/USD
 
Adamus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 471 given, 787 received


wldman View Post
just caught a post of yours and thought I'd chime in with my unsolicited two cents.

IMO trading off peak hours is a reciepe for disaster. That is to say entering new positions after 11 am or Noon EST for me is generally a non starter. Exit at target or stop, that is as it should be during that time. Many guys are just more comfortable flat over the asian session.

Review your trades....every one of them after your session is over do not wait till the next day.

This stuff about sleep and rest seems like you have been listening to a yoga instructor or one of those reki healers...bologna. Your trading entries and exits should be a conditioned response like a damn machine. The thinking and analysis is done during the non production hours. Don't think at your computer screen, execute based on your precise preperation. The book "How We Decide" might be helpful.

Trade well, Be well.

Wildman

Hi Wildman, thanks - I will try to do those things - i have heard the advice before, I am trying it and you are adding resolve to my commitment to do it. I'll definitely follow up on that book, sounds good. I'll put it next on my pile to read, after I've finished my current book (The Way of the Warrior Trader). I do have sleep problems though. Looking at your profile picture, you probably had the same 3 times - small people with loud screams. My partner works full time too so until I can afford a nightwatchman, we share the small hours work equally.

Plus for your info actually, the top psychologist at University of Chicago did loads of research into sleep and performance - if you get rid of your "sleep debt", you can increase your performance by 25% to 35%, fact. Admittedly it was research on physical sports performance, but I think it will transfer to mental performance. But let me read that book you recommend.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #265 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker: IB/IQFeed
Trading: EUR/USD
 
Adamus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 471 given, 787 received

Public Admission of Stupidity and Lack of Fitness to Trade

Much as I hate to appear a fool in public, part of my learning process involves re-inforcing lessons learnt, through public humilitation. Please see the chart and mark-up of my activities during yesterday's Euro/USD action.



I was already heading into a big re-visit of much of the learning material I am using, so this made it all that much easier to abandon any attempts to trade today and to go through what I had learnt so far and what I still had to learn. The mark-up of the 1min chart is my brief trade log / review (done correctly after revisiting the books) of Wednesday's early trading - before the central bank news took the lid off the market. The 3 min charts are just my commentary.

As they often say, I've got a long way to go. I hope this amuses and maybe even helps other newbies. It helped me. Thank God it was all in sim - no money burned - but my confidence in my iron will is gone.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	$EURUSD (3 Min)  2011-11-30a.jpg
Views:	122
Size:	527.9 KB
ID:	56118   Click image for larger version

Name:	$EURUSD (3 Min)  2011-11-30b.jpg
Views:	106
Size:	388.3 KB
ID:	56119   Click image for larger version

Name:	$EURUSD (1 Min)  2011-11-30b.jpg
Views:	111
Size:	191.3 KB
ID:	56120  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Adamus for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #266 (permalink)
 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: cTrader
Broker: ThinkForex
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received

One of the great gifts we have is the ability to learn and learn from our mistakes at that. I know for me I tend to learn much quicker from my many mistakes. It's really encouraging to know can all learn from mistakes. Thank you for sharing this lesson, Adamus. If you learn from it you really have not lost, keep at it.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #267 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,182 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,680 given, 99,542 received


Adamus View Post
Yes. The plan is to go through the trading day noting the market structure, price action and personal performance as they developed. Then with benefit of hindsight, I go through the daily review - this is my cheat-sheet for it - this is taken out of the YTC Price Action Trader programme and adapted by me to my purposes:

.
.
<snip>
.
.

OK thanks for the detailed plan. But you may wish to consider just identifying one or two key objectives for the following day. Try and pinpoint these objectives, be very specific. For example "make profit" is wrong idea. You could look over your detailed plan and identify your biggest weaknesses, then pick one or two on a daily basis to put all your focus on.

At the end of the day, did you meet the objective? If not, then no need worrying about the rest of your plan. You have your work cut out for you, you can focus on just 2 bullet points instead of 200 until you are doing those two extremely well, giving yourself an "A" grade on a regular basis before moving on to two new items to focus on.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #268 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker: IB/IQFeed
Trading: EUR/USD
 
Adamus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 471 given, 787 received

Forgot to post this Friday.

Main points learnt today: don't enter so late that you're tempted to pull in your stops too quickly.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	$EURUSD (3 Min)  2011-12-02.jpg
Views:	116
Size:	770.8 KB
ID:	56445   Click image for larger version

Name:	$EURUSD (1 Min)  2011-12-02a.jpg
Views:	97
Size:	180.5 KB
ID:	56446   Click image for larger version

Name:	$EURUSD (1 Min)  2011-12-02b.jpg
Views:	101
Size:	183.0 KB
ID:	56447   Click image for larger version

Name:	$EURUSD (1 Min)  2011-12-02.jpg
Views:	108
Size:	159.9 KB
ID:	56448  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #269 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker: IB/IQFeed
Trading: EUR/USD
 
Adamus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 471 given, 787 received

I'm still trying to work out which is my most damaging trading problem.

I'll have to think it over a bit and make a definite goal of it for tomorrow.


PS: looks to me like I'm just not applying the trading plan properly. It's quite simple: once the future trend likelihood, bias, strength and setup are decided (which I take care of OK) then at the setup as it develops - a stall or consolidation or pull-back etc - you have to decide (1) the last point at which you would want to enter the trade as it moves in your direction and (2) the stop where you would want out if it all goes wrong. Then you try to get in at a better price than you decided on in (1). I'm not doing 1 & 2 properly, I'm just assuming mostly that I'll get in at a good price.

And then often I bail out at a price a long way before the stop - with the frequent result that I miss the move.

So, tomorrow: establish the LWP (last wholesale price) and the stop before working an entry.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	$EURUSD (3 Min)  2011-12-05.jpg
Views:	108
Size:	682.5 KB
ID:	56449   Click image for larger version

Name:	$EURUSD (1 Min)  2011-12-05a.jpg
Views:	96
Size:	225.0 KB
ID:	56450   Click image for larger version

Name:	$EURUSD (1 Min)  2011-12-05b.jpg
Views:	110
Size:	236.3 KB
ID:	56451   Click image for larger version

Name:	$EURUSD (1 second)  2011-12-05.jpg
Views:	100
Size:	229.4 KB
ID:	56452  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #270 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker: IB/IQFeed
Trading: EUR/USD
 
Adamus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 471 given, 787 received


One of the problems I have with near-by stops is that they can easily get taken out by a spike.

So, I need to use distant real stops but have virtual closer stops which I operate manually if the market starts acting like it's going to hit them. So a big push down in a bar is likely to be a spike where the price comes straight back, so I'll leave that to hit the hard stop, but if I see signals and triggers and strength in the opposite direction, I'll bail out before the hard stop.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Trading spot fx euro using price action


Last Updated on July 1, 2016


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2022 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts