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Trading spot fx euro using price action
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Trading spot fx euro using price action

  #221 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker/Data: IB/IQFeed
Favorite Futures: EUR/USD
 
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Tuesday 2011-11-01

Missed Monday's action. I'll have to do that on the weekend with Market Replay.

Here's my take on the market today. 6 hours. No trades, unfortunately - still on the "observe only" phase of the programme. Must have been interesting to trade. 200 points in the European session alone. Nice move.

In fact it seemed to move nicely up and down the whole time, not so much chop.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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Last edited by Adamus; November 1st, 2011 at 03:15 PM.
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  #222 (permalink)
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Wednesday's chart 2011-11-02

Only two moments where I was sure I knew what would happen next (and it happened - haven't had negative experience yet). Profiting from that requires placing a trade though, so that will be another challenge.

Almost gave up watching today because it was so slow, but decided to concentrate and presumably watching the rough as well as the trends is educational.

Realised I'm focussing too much on the stalls when I should be focussing on future trend direction which I find is a can of worms in comparison. I should get a checklist of characteristics to take note of at every opportunity.
  • long term trend
  • volatility / ATR of bars
  • big bars or none
  • extension vs pull-back ratio
  • swing count
  • acceleration or deceleration / momentum change
  • reversals abrupt or round
  • tails
  • chop
  • regularity or form of legs - who has it more, bulls or bears (opposite of chop I guess)

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #223 (permalink)
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Thursday's chart 2011-11-03


I might be a price action trader (in the making) but I also think I need to know the news.

I tried the Reuters twitter feed and that was hopelessly delayed - probably a lag of about 30 mins.

Personally I think Georgios Papendreou was deliberately timing the Greek government announcements to pump up his spread-betting account

On another note, I am fundamentally bearish on EUR/USD. Why? Well basically if the Euro is a worthless currency, and the US Dollar is also a worthless currency, then they have the same value - so the Euro is bound to fall to 1.0000

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #224 (permalink)
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Friday 2011-11-04

I really liked the market today, it kept doing what I thought it would do. OK, I didn't have any trading decisions to make, but it felt like it was predicable. Next week I start the next phase of the programme which includes the actual trading.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #225 (permalink)
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Jumped back to Monday 2011-10-31

Catching up on Monday 31st which I missed, using market replay.

Trends were challenging to identify - hardly surprising considering the whole Euro session traded in a range, consolidating from a big sell-off during the Asian session.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #226 (permalink)
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Started simulated trading. I have a whole deck of flash cards to help me get to grips with real-time trading - this is the flash card for order entry - hopefully I won't have to refer to it for too long before I've memorised it.

In-Session 8: Set-up and Trade Management


1) Determine which set-up is likely
2) Monitor price action on approach to entry zone confirming that it matches behaviour anticipated - if not, return to initial analysis
3) Identify trade parameters
a. Locate best position for stop loss
b. Decide where Target 1 and Target 2 should be
c. Determine Last Wholesale Price (LWP) where trapped traders would have their stops
d. Calculate Last Risk-balanced Price halfway between stop and T1 LWP should be better than this
e. Determine entry plan at stop on LWP and / or limit entry
4) Confirm pending order details are correct
a. Entry price
b. Order direction
c. Size
d. NT7 ATM strategy for contingent stop loss and target orders
5) Monitor price movement bar by bar
a. Ensure continuing support for premise of future trend direction
b. Identify entry locations
c. Check candle pattern sentiment
6) Place stop entry order at LWP as soon as its identified
7) Place a limit entry away from stall and work back to desired level
8) Work the limit or stop entry order on price action trigger if it occurs


I'm also trying to work out what is possible with NinjaTrader's ATM strategies. The Help docs were a bit unhelpful - the kind that aren't comprehensible until you comprehend what it is you are dealing with

I have ten of these flash cards. More like cheat notes than flash cards I guess. But this is meant to keep me on the straight and narrow.

So this first week of real-time sim trading is likely to be a disaster not just from a P'n'L point of view but also from a technical point of view. Yesterday it seems I managed to do nothing at all while learning the game.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #227 (permalink)
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Wednesday's chart 2011-11-09

Not much action but it's only my second day on sim.

Probably shouldn't have tried so hard, had a few failed attempts. Whatever.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #228 (permalink)
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Thursday's chart 2011-11-10

Had two serious lessons today.

I blew my first two trades despite having the direction correct. Got in too early, set my stops too tight. Let the market hustle me.

Then the second lesson was a consequence of that - it knocked my confidence a bit and it seems like I stayed out of several setups that I should have traded.

Then it got choppy and it was difficult to say whether I was right or wrong - probably just wrong to try trading what were low probability trades and should have taken a break to sort my psych issues out and get rid of the over-cautiousness.

On the last trade I had a bad fatalistic attitude and just let a rally go against me all the way to my stops when I told myself I should have bailed half way there.


Just added marked-up chart showing what I should have done

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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Trading spot fx euro using price action-eurusd-3-min-2011-11-10.jpg   Trading spot fx euro using price action-eurusd-3-min-2011-11-10b.jpg  

Last edited by Adamus; November 10th, 2011 at 07:22 PM. Reason: adding chart mark-up for perfect hindsight :)
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  #229 (permalink)
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Friday 2011-11-11

My chart mark-up for Friday.

Did OK, resisted the temptation to jump in unprepared, but missed all opportunities to get in on the big rally.

The key I am looking for is consistency, so that fact that I had a small profit was more important that the risk of diving in without due consideration as the rally unfolded. It could have stalled at any point and I have no experience with light markets during holidays.

The opportunities to get into the rally though were difficult to act on, being so quick. I totally missed the start of the rally since I was faffing with my trade log which I just purchased (in excel).

The last one was after the stall at 1.3745 - the minute chart showed the line I was looking at and the market hung right below the line for quite some time before surging up and away. I just froze, like a rabbit in the headlights.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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Trading spot fx euro using price action-eurusd-3-min-2011-11-11.jpg   Trading spot fx euro using price action-eurusd-3-min-2011-11-11b.jpg   Trading spot fx euro using price action-eurusd-5-seconds-2011-11-11.jpg  
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  #230 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
My chart mark-up for Friday.

Did OK, resisted the temptation to jump in unprepared, but missed all opportunities to get in on the big rally.

Great job in resisting to trade unprepared. If it had turned out you may be tempted to trade again that way. Wise decision in my view.

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