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Trading spot fx euro using price action


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Trading spot fx euro using price action

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  #201 (permalink)
 Zwaen 
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What I meaned was creating something like the " odd enhancers calculator" like Sam Seiden.

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  #202 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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Guys,

You often speak about the importance of support/resistance and as mentionned in the article "they are the corner stone of any trading plan". Do you consider the identification of support and resistance a subjective process ?

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  #203 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Do you consider the identification of support and resistance a subjective process ?

Subjective mainly in relation to the time frame. I think that ten traders all looking at the identical chart should come up with very near the same support/resistance levels.

But the problem is when you change time frames, and then of course when you realize that some traders are looking to scalp 4 ticks, and some traders are looking to hold for 40 points.

Also some traders define support and resistance primarily in terms of horizontal lines at highs and lows. Other traders use channels and trend lines and call the top/bottom of those support and resistance. Others still may use market profile like value area's and point of control to define support or resistance.

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  #204 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Zwaen View Post
That is a good article, in my memory i read it indeed 4-5 months ago.

The " rules" I have made for myself are also somewhat discretionary, and not programmable I think( I am no programmer). These rules are based on observation and then " testing" on historical charts.

I think what I call " quantifying" isn't what you mean by " quantifying" :-)

So for example, if I would make some " rules " for a test of support ( go long at support) in accordance to the article, the rules could have been:
-take entry directly IF price reaches level not too hard ( not too hard= mental picture)
-take entry only IF signalbar forms and enter above this candle ( signalcandle=hammer, piercing, bullcandle etc)
-take entry ONLY if price moved fast earlier from support
-take entry ONLY if this is the 1st test.
-When in trade, bounce should move at least about xx points in y bars ( mental picture) because I want strong reaction.
-After this reaction retrament may only be about max 70%
- IF price stalls for about 4 bars after entry -> prematurely exit trade
etc

For the pullbacks I have some rules for example:
-slope on pullback must be decreasing ( increasing slope is NoGo) due to overlap candles / decreasing range candles
-Maximum of 2 tails against my postion
-retracement maximum 70%
-Need signalcandle
-1 doji is not good signalcandle ( unless slope is very weak) but 2 doji's is also oke
-need minimum about 10-15 pips room till hook
etc ( ofcourse these are by far not all rules because I think structure is more important then entry )

All I know of Sam Seiden's odds enhancer calculator is what I've read in discussions here. However it is on my long term list of things to check out. I like your rules for going long at support - it seems you have conquered your dislike of reversals

From looking at 100 days of EUR.USD, I would say that 50% of the time, the price stalls after the BOF setup. In fact it happens so often sometimes I got confused whether you are meant to wait for the stall or not. Just to underline my lack of experience though, I have no recollection of whether the stall confirms the setup, fails it, or has no impact!

Obviously though the best stall is one that happens just like the examples in YTC PAT......

Actually I think the stall just provides a platform for an entry trigger, e.g. up/down twin bars, or a chance to get in if you're convinced about the bias.

Now I'm looking at real-time data, I have to decide what hours I'm going to trade. I guess I'll just trade the most convenient hours that fit in with the rest of my day, but that seems like a non-decision. Do you have a preference?

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  #205 (permalink)
 Zwaen 
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Adamus View Post

Now I'm looking at real-time data, I have to decide what hours I'm going to trade. I guess I'll just trade the most convenient hours that fit in with the rest of my day, but that seems like a non-decision. Do you have a preference?


I think the best price action is roughly
09.00-11.00
14.30-17.30
[GMT +01.00]
So if nothing exciting happens the market will mostly be dull between 11.30-14.00

Mostly at 12.00-13.30 I do mountainbiking or jogging for physical excercise and fresh air (non-informational side-information)

btw terratec @ the 6E thread also said roughly the same, you should take a look, but you probably have done it already

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  #206 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Adamus View Post
From looking at 100 days of EUR.USD, I would say that 50% of the time, the price stalls after the BOF setup.

BOF?

Mike

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  #207 (permalink)
 Zwaen 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Guys,

You often speak about the importance of support/resistance and as mentionned in the article "they are the corner stone of any trading plan". Do you consider the identification of support and resistance a subjective process ?

Sorry I have no idea what you mean ( not at that level yet ) but I'm just investigating priceaction in neighbourhood of recent price-swings/areas where price moved really fast from in conjunction with higher tf trend & market structure

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  #208 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Guys,

You often speak about the importance of support/resistance and as mentionned in the article "they are the corner stone of any trading plan". Do you consider the identification of support and resistance a subjective process ?

The process I use at present to identify support and resistance is not subjective - I could program it into a mechanical trading system. I just use lines.

However often the lines come thick and fast and I realised recently that the areas or zones of S/R that people discuss are probably more realistic, and I think identifying such zones would require more skill and be less objective.

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  #209 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Zwaen View Post
I think the best price action is roughly
09.00-11.00
14.30-17.30
[GMT +01.00]
So if nothing exciting happens the market will mostly be dull between 11.30-14.00

Mostly at 12.00-13.30 I do mountainbiking or jogging for physical excercise and fresh air (non-informational side-information)

btw terratec @ the 6E thread also said roughly the same, you should take a look, but you probably have done it already

Thanks for using GMT+1 - you actually confused me more since I thought you were in GMT+2 zone

I was surprised that @ terratec hadn't mentioned 06:00 - 09:00 but then neither did you. From my limited experience it always seems that there is something going on there, whether it's a Asian session break-out or morning reversal or whatever.

EDIT: hold on I just re-read terratec's post. He was talking in CET timezone. So he recommends GMT+1 07:00 to 08:00 but while that's partly what I like, I would prefer to catch all the action from GMT+1 06:00 although I admit there are days when nothing happens in that first hour. Plus it would be challenging to see whether my brain would function for trading at that time.

I am realistically not going to be able to trade that time slot though due to little people running around the house at that time creating carnage. The other normal European day is also not ideal since I would rather have one long session than two shorter with a big break. We'll see.

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  #210 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Big Mike View Post
BOF?

Mike

Break-Out Failure.

BPB = Break-out Pull-Back
and
CPB = Complex Pull-Back.

Abbreviations from YTC PAT. Are there other TLAs for them? I don't believe so. Al Brooks uses so many I lost the big picture there.

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