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Trading spot fx euro using price action
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Trading spot fx euro using price action

  #181 (permalink)
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Friday 2011-10-07

Friday's chart 2011-10-07, not so wild as yesterday, but still a little wild

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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Trading spot fx euro using price action-eurusd-3-min-2011-10-07.jpg  

Last edited by Adamus; October 12th, 2011 at 10:44 AM.
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  #182 (permalink)
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Monday 2011-10-10

Monday was a 300 pointer.

The more I look at the euro the more I wonder how on earth I am going to decide what hours to trade. I don't want to miss any of it. The start of the European session and the start of the US session are both great and there's always something going on in-between. I can get up at 5 for it, no worries, and the way the volatility builds up between 6 and 8 is fascinating.

Maybe I should wait to see where I lose the most in sim trading and it will make up my mind for me

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Trading spot fx euro using price action-eurusd-3-min-2011-10-10a.jpg   Trading spot fx euro using price action-eurusd-3-min-2011-10-10b.jpg  
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  #183 (permalink)
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Tuesday 2011-10-11


Up-to-date at last. This makes a nice little inside bar at the top of Monday's range. Good trigger for those daily chart traders.

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  #184 (permalink)
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Wednesday's chart 2011-10-11

A good rally in Europe - unusually nothing to add to in the US.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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Trading spot fx euro using price action-eurusd-3-min-2011-10-12a.jpg   Trading spot fx euro using price action-eurusd-3-min-2011-10-12b.jpg  
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  #185 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
Hi Zwaen, I wouldn't call that a fair comparison. You don't generally get a car going backwards and forwards like that unless they're trying to park. Well, I haven't seen you drive, so maybe you're right

I see sideways trends that are not chop - I see the swing highs and the swing lows, good quality reversals, not too many long tails, not too much small-scale pull-back (my sideway trends have equal extension and pull-back)

I'm way behind at the moment. I've got Thurs, Fri and Monday's charts to do. I have decorators trying to sort out a damp problem in the flat, it's very distracting having to talk with them all the time.


Haha, oke not totally fair no.

But I know what you mean. Just when I look at this moment to EurUsd, the picture is somewhat confusing due to (too many) mixed signals imho:
See attached picture:
30 min chart: uptrend is " textbook" broken due to break of neckline. But recent 30min candles all show undertails which show rejection and thus bullish power comming in.
3 min chart: shows sideways action but slightly positive bias.
Daily( not shown): forming somewhat of inside bar, but thats not information which is usable for next hour ( unless daily high/low will be reached)

So this where patience comes in, and do others things like reading threads on futures.io (formerly BMT)

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  #186 (permalink)
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Zwaen View Post
Haha, oke not totally fair no.

But I know what you mean. Just when I look at this moment to EurUsd, the picture is somewhat confusing due to (too many) mixed signals imho:
See attached picture:
30 min chart: uptrend is " textbook" broken due to break of neckline. But recent 30min candles all show undertails which show rejection and thus bullish power comming in.
3 min chart: shows sideways action but slightly positive bias.
Daily( not shown): forming somewhat of inside bar, but thats not information which is usable for next hour ( unless daily high/low will be reached)

So this where patience comes in, and do others things like reading threads on futures.io (formerly BMT)

Well I would have to wait anyway until price hits one of those S/R levels. For pure YTC PAT, you would only use the 30mins chart for finding the S/R in the first place. After that, your bias comes from your 3mins chart. Since generally speaking a trend that is big enough to provide pull-backs will be totally obvious, the hard part of working out your bias is when price has reached an S/R level. Even then you know the direction already because you are either bullish going into R or bearish going into S. Then it's just a question of how strong or weak your bias is, and whether the interaction at the S/R level is going to turn into a BPB or a BOF after a stall.

That is hard.

Or am I oversimplifying it?

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  #187 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
Hi Zwaen, I wouldn't call that a fair comparison. You don't generally get a car going backwards and forwards like that unless they're trying to park. Well, I haven't seen you drive, so maybe you're right

I see sideways trends that are not chop - I see the swing highs and the swing lows, good quality reversals, not too many long tails, not too much small-scale pull-back (my sideway trends have equal extension and pull-back)

I'm way behind at the moment. I've got Thurs, Fri and Monday's charts to do. I have decorators trying to sort out a damp problem in the flat, it's very distracting having to talk with them all the time.


Adamus View Post
Well I would have to wait anyway until price hits one of those S/R levels. For pure YTC PAT, you would only use the 30mins chart for finding the S/R in the first place. After that, your bias comes from your 3mins chart. Since generally speaking a trend that is big enough to provide pull-backs will be totally obvious, the hard part of working out your bias is when price has reached an S/R level. Even then you know the direction already because you are either bullish going into R or bearish going into S. Then it's just a question of how strong or weak your bias is, and whether the interaction at the S/R level is going to turn into a BPB or a BOF after a stall.

That is hard.

Or am I oversimplifying it?


Yes this is indeed difficult. There are several facors at play ( as I see it):

How strong is the SR support resistance Level?
-how many times SR support resistance Level has been tested?
-how was the prior reaction to the SR support resistance Level?
-is there any confluence in SR support resistance Level? For example pivots or 30 minute SR support resistance Level, and fibonacci and or Volume profile
-Unknown factors

How is the trend/strength reaching the SR support resistance Level?
-how is the slope and " slope of the slope" ( 2d derivative) of the trend?
-is the trend getting " old" or relatively new ?
-What kind of news is driving the trend?
-Is the higher timeframe trend supporting or not?
-several other factors I can't think of now

Then we can look at the reaction of the trend or move reaching the SR support resistance Level?
-How does price " penetrates" the level ( or even can't ). How many points?
-are the candles large or smaller?
-is the reaction the the level fierce/medium/weak?

Then we can look at the reaction to this reaction ( pullback and trend continuation and retest of SR support resistance Level):
-is this reaction stronger or weaker than the previous downleg? ( if weaker, possible 123 pattern )
-will price come above prior rosshook point? By how far?

When the reaction on the reaction on the reaction ( we are at a 123 pattern now) fails a possible 123 patterns or 2B pattern can develop( variations of a double top/bottom). When the reaction on this pattern fails we can say congestion formed. But even then, our congestion can look like another perfect pattern on another timeframe.

I think it is this why these patterns are difficult to automate, while our mind can ( with experience) easily compare all these variables at work to "anticipate/quess" the most expected outcome.

But I think constantly comparing previous legs with the current leg can give you clues of the future direction. Constantly identifying strenghts and weakness can show where price most likely will go


Last edited by Zwaen; October 13th, 2011 at 12:03 PM.
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  #188 (permalink)
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Watch out for London close. There is talk that will be rating downgrade for multiple UK banks.

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Watch out for London close. There is talk that will be rating downgrade for multiple UK banks.

Could you post a link/source?

Mike

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Traderji View Post
Watch out for London close. There is talk that will be rating downgrade for multiple UK banks.

You think that will affect sterling's "safe haven" status discovered by Chancellor George Osborne? ahahahahahahahaha

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