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Trading spot fx euro using price action


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Trading spot fx euro using price action

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  #171 (permalink)
 Zwaen 
Netherlands, Blaricum
 
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Adamus View Post
What was the difference?
O no nothing important, just that you look to eurusd spot and I to 6E
Always good to read Schwager. Who is your fav. market wizard?

Haha well not easy to pick. I liked to read the interview with Larry Hite

Thursday's chart 2011-09-29 was not an easy day to trade it seems


Bad to hear from the attempted burglary, hope you will get your rest soon


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  #172 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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First time I've seen a day when all three sessions were bearish.

I have loads of S/R on this chart.

There are about 5 days going back covering Friday's range, each day having its own set of swing highs and lows which translates into a some densely crowded S/R lines. They look more like areas. I couldn't decide whether to amalgamate the S/R that were close together or leave them on, so for now I am leaving them on to see what happens.

The double lines do create an area and it doesn't make sense to trade a break-out unless the market penetrates both, or a BO failure unless the market comes all the way back through. It seems to make sense to me now.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #173 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Interesting market action as price gapped down into uncharted territory, making a new 9 month low.

This provided a new lesson, working with a lot fewer S/R since the market hadn't been here in 10 months. I like it. A lot quicker to analyse, but pretty much the same number of setups.

Also to streamline my hindsight analysis of the trends & ranges, I created a quick checklist of properties and behaviours to use to describe the trend (delete / edit / fill in blanks as appropriate):

  • Asian/Euro/US session
  • x points in session range
  • strong/weak trend up/down, trading range, chop
  • max value of 8 bar ATR of 3min chart in points
  • trend extension : pull-back ratio e.g. 4:3, 2:1, 3:1
  • big bars in points (how big is the average big trend bar?)
  • swing count (HH-HL-HH or LL-LH-LL) good/reasonable/broken
  • acceleration or deceleration discernible in trends? none, slight, some, very
  • reversals - abrupt v-shaped compared to rounded u-shaped: 75%
  • tails (big tails on candles, or clustered medium tails): none, some etc
  • chop (any choppy periods): lots/little/none
  • anything else: triangles, flags, channels, spikes
I'm going to use this checklist from now on to describe whether the market generally moved with ease or faced continual disruptive opposing order flow and how, i.e. how trends developed or if congestion and chop rulled the day or whether small trends back and forth in a range occurred.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #174 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Yesterday's chart.

All the action was in the US session, again, like yesterday.

Not many opportunities.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #175 (permalink)
 Zwaen 
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  • Asian/Euro/US session
  • x points in session range
  • strong/weak trend up/down, trading range, chop
  • max value of 8 bar ATR of 3min chart in points
  • trend extension : pull-back ratio e.g. 4:3, 2:1, 3:1
  • big bars in points (how big is the average big trend bar?)
  • swing count (HH-HL-HH or LL-LH-LL) good/reasonable/broken
  • acceleration or deceleration discernible in trends? none, slight, some, very
  • reversals - abrupt v-shaped compared to rounded u-shaped: 75%
  • tails (big tails on candles, or clustered medium tails): none, some etc
  • chop (any choppy periods): lots/little/none
  • anything else: triangles, flags, channels, spikes
This is a very good idea. I think you will find some valuable information recording this. It will also add to to your " feel of the market". Own records can provide you beliefs and the courage to act on your own findings, something reading a book will not give you. ( paradoxical, I read this in a book recommended by Lornz a few days ago, Jesse Livermoore trading in stocks 1940 edition, and had a comparable experience testing different exit-strategies on my own).

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  #176 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Here is yesterday's (Wednesdays) chart. Less volatility - it all fitted on one screenshot.

I took the bubbles off the chart because I found it blocked "the big picture".

Lots of these trades had very close targets so many of them might never have been valid, if the stop was too far away, but I'm not looking at that at the moment, that's not my problem yet. I'm still just trying to detect the bias in the setups.

Doing the overview for the day, I need to sort out a better definition of these mini-channels that I keep seeing, to work out if they are something real or not. When the price is leaping around too much, the YTC PAT setups don't appear, but if I look at the price channel, then more often than not, I can play a setup using the channel, e.g. at 08:00, 10:30, 15:00.

These channels sometimes have lots of tails on them - e.g. at 15:00, but sometimes not e.g. 10:30, and sometimes you see lots of tails and no channels at all (e.g. 08:30).

Would be good to have a definition of chop as well.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #177 (permalink)
 Zwaen 
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Adamus, I think you will have trouble capturing today in 4 screenshots

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  #178 (permalink)
 Zwaen 
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Would be good to have a definition of chop as well.

Hey Adamus,

maybe of help, my definition of chop is just, "if I do not see a trend/bias upward or downward within 2 seconds in the 3/5 min chart, it is probably chop/sideways". As simple as that. Then I just wait till price will break out its bounderies and look for a possible BPB or new PB/CPB. ( I dont trade TST and BOFs yet).
Next, if price is in a small range, let's say 30 pips on EU, there is not enough room to trade ( Brooks-> barbwire), so stay out since risk-reward ratio is often bad.


If I look at a car and have to look hard if the car is moving forward or backward, the car is probably not getting anywhere.

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  #179 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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Zwaen View Post
Would be good to have a definition of chop as well.

Hey Adamus,

maybe of help, my definition of chop is just, "if I do not see a trend/bias upward or downward within 2 seconds in the 3/5 min chart, it is probably chop/sideways". As simple as that. Then I just wait till price will break out its bounderies and look for a possible BPB or new PB/CPB. ( I dont trade TST and BOFs yet).
Next, if price is in a small range, let's say 30 pips on EU, there is not enough room to trade ( Brooks-> barbwire), so stay out since risk-reward ratio is often bad.


If I look at a car and have to look hard if the car is moving forward or backward, the car is probably not getting anywhere.


Hi Zwaen, I wouldn't call that a fair comparison. You don't generally get a car going backwards and forwards like that unless they're trying to park. Well, I haven't seen you drive, so maybe you're right

I see sideways trends that are not chop - I see the swing highs and the swing lows, good quality reversals, not too many long tails, not too much small-scale pull-back (my sideway trends have equal extension and pull-back)

I'm way behind at the moment. I've got Thurs, Fri and Monday's charts to do. I have decorators trying to sort out a damp problem in the flat, it's very distracting having to talk with them all the time.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #180 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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Thursday 2011-10-06 for the record.

Zwaen, you were right. 3 screenshots for 1 day.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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