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EFFECT or CAUSE - in which camp are you in ?
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EFFECT or CAUSE - in which camp are you in ?

  #11 (permalink)
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Massive l's Avatar
 
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It didn't look like it does now but the Point of control was established, although the volume
was much lower. It's always much easier to see in hindsight.

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  #12 (permalink)
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The hard part is correctly identifying the REAL causes in real time.


When the markets started to rebound after the '08 crash I was 3 months late getting back in because the fundamental reasons for a recovery were not made clear IMO until a good time later. Those who think otherwise might have no clue what is going on today.


The MACD cross over at an uber-low level should have been enough of a signal in retrospect. OTOH I got completely out of the markets 2 WEEKS before the big crash and that was also because of growth just not making sense at the time. Investors who did it differently probably sold for much less and bought for much less - if they didn't stick it out the whole time.


I rely on both a grounded sense of the fundamental reasons an equity has to rise and the charting patterns that give buy/sell signals. My favorites are the double tops/bottoms, symmetrical triangles and ascending or descending triangles - found in all time frames. Lost out on a lot of money selling 1/2 the silver contracts under 41.80 and it was the F#$*ing move I've been waiting for.


Can there be a perfect balance between fundamental and technical analysis?


If you can only trade on one I think technical analysis has weakened but is more dependable. Market Price Structure: it takes into account the fundamental news that has or is expected to occur through price action. With a little help from the fed and absent quote stuffing...



ThatManFromTexas View Post
I believe in Cause...

Price does what price does 'cause that's what price does...

Great line...

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  #13 (permalink)
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The causes on how price moves are not the fundamental, but how people react to them and their fear and greed, thecnical analysis can be self fullfilling profecy.

Take your Pips, go out and Live.
Luke.
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  #14 (permalink)
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
Except for the fact that a lot of times, volume increases toward the end of the trend as price continues to move in the direction of the trend.

I believe in Cause...

Price does what price does 'cause that's what price does...

TMFT = That Many Fairy Tales

But I like this sentence, as to some extent it points to the feedback loops, which are reflected by price, as it creates new feedback. Technical analysis uses feedback as being displayed by price, fundamental analysis has its focus on the triggers, which change the feedback mechanisms. That said, feedback caused by price feeds back into fundamentals, so price is everybody's bride in that eternal game of growth and decline.

George Soros called it reflexivity. What he wanted to say is that the causes and effects are multilateral. Fundamentals have an impact on price, but price also has an impact on fundamentals. L'être et l'apparaître, they are not independent.

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  #15 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
TMFT = That Many Fairy Tales

But I like this sentence, as to some extent it points to the feedback loops, which are reflected by price, as it creates new feedback. Technical analysis uses feedback as being displayed by price, fundamental analysis has its focus on the triggers, which change the feedback mechanisms. That said, feedback caused by price feeds back into fundamentals, so price is everybody's bride in that eternal game of growth and decline.

George Soros called it reflexivity. What he wanted to say is that the causes and effects are multilateral. Fundamentals have an impact on price, but price also has an impact on fundamentals. L'être et l'apparaître, they are not independent.



How dare you say that.... I have you know TMFT = Too Many F#cking Tequila's...


Dang... you ask Fat Tails the time of day ... he will build you a watch....

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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  #16 (permalink)
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
Dang... you ask Fat Tails the time of day ... he will build you a watch....

That's why Fats is #1.

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #17 (permalink)
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It is interesting that we have seen the terms "Technical Analysis" and "Fundamental Analysis" used in the thread as if there are 2 distinct and seperate ways to look at the market.

Often on trading forums we see TA vs FA and much debate over one vs the other.

In my opinion, we would be better off analysing the difference between objective analysis and subjective analysis.

Almost all traders have taken for granted that markets can be traded objectively with a fixed set of rules, so when they approach any analysis technique, they search for fixed rules to apply and to apply them to quit a tiny slice of market action.

Anyway - I'm all for cause.

Some people say "Trade what you see, not what you think", I personally think that if you can see it & everyone else can see it - it's already too late.

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  #18 (permalink)
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
How dare you say that.... I have you know TMFT = Too Many F#cking Tequila's...


Dang... you ask Fat Tails the time of day ... he will build you a watch....


...and once the watch is ready, tell you the time he started building it. Just to comply with the habits of technical analysts. If I was capable of building watches, I would not post here, but build watches instead.

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  #19 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
...and once the watch is ready, tell you the time he started building it. Just to comply with the habits of technical analysts. If I was capable of building watches, I would not post here, but build watches instead.


I wonder if you could change the color of the face of the watch you built for me ... and add arrows to show when the little hand passes the big hand... I would do it myself , but I notice most traders just ask you ....

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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  #20 (permalink)
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
I wonder if you could change the color of the face of the watch you built for me ... and add arrows to show when the little hand passes the big hand... I would do it myself , but I notice most traders just ask you ....

This is the secret code of trading: only enter a position when the little hand has passed over the large hand, and I promise you, you will never incur any loss.

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