After seeing all the stuff going on in another journal, I'd like to know but have never been able to find out:
How can I prove, in the "public domain" if you will, that the trades I have taken with my real money are legitimate? Is there a trade blotter of some kind or some kind of "written in stone" way to do this?? I'd like to be able to show this myself.
As someone else had suggested, for me anyway, posting the trade in advance simply doesn't work for many people, if for no other reason that often setups happen so fast, based on momentum, that there's no time to do this.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on futures io?
Using NT, it might be possible, in writing a strategy which will "spy" an account and its orders, and send these orders and the current positions to a website/blog/...
Using IB TWS it's also possible (and easier), as I've done it before, using a simple program connected to the user's TWS, and sending the entry/exit orders to website/blog. I forgot in which language I've wrote this, Java, Perl or C++, but I can remember it was very small and easy to code.
Their is maybe other ways, but that's the safest and the easier to me...
Success requires no deodorant! (Sun Tzu)
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nverstop, I understand that, but that doesn't really answer the question. IF you were going to want proof of someone's trades, how would you go about verifying it, or rather, how would the trader go about setting things up so as to provide proof?
Thanks sam... in the first method you mention, how would one verify the correct date and time stamp? Some of these trades may need millisecond timing resolution (breakouts for example). In other words, couldn't someone fake the time stamp on the website or blog server and post an "after-the-fact" trade 2 or 3 seconds after the actual move begins, or something like that?
hmmm... I dont think anyone can trade discretionary at the ms level... so that is a pointless question... the best you can do retail execution as a human will be second level.. and if you are trying to follow a mechanical system trading at the ms level, by the time that system entered and is about to exit is when you will find out about the entry.
the only true way to "verify" the trades are not fake, is as @sam028 stated; you need to go with a broker that will enable an API where you can post trades to an XML or whatever that you can the process from a website.. regardless it would be a custom job and an FCM willing to support the effort.
Well I guess it would be alot easier to prove legitimacy if one was a short term, medium term, or long term trader. But if one is a millisecond scalper then I would automatically assume the person is bsing about their success or otherwise foolish about the long term prospects for the system. But I guess I'm just one of those people who don't want to compete with machines directly on the millisecond level...
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Other than showing them your profit/loss statements and trade analysis reports, I'm not sure that anything else would be beneficial. If someone believes that you're trying to scam them by fraudently falsifying those types of exhibits, what good would it do to let them observe anything else......
I guess the most effective way would be to have them sit next to you and then call/verify with your broker the balance sheets reflect what's on your screen.
Are you looking for some official exhibit that's been issued by the exchange? I'm sure there are people that have access to that information, whether or not you can get your paws on it is another matter. There has to be an official database that tracks orders from each broker, which can be further tracked to each individual account holder....
You could also consider doing a remote desktop or virtual connection that allows them to see you're platform live and in color, but again, if they're skeptical, you'd need to call the brokerage and confirm that what your platform is claiming actually bears out on your bottom line.
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Let me clarify about the ms resolution. I didn't mean that the timing of the person would need to be that granular, rather I mean that I enter the trade and 1 or 2 seconds later the move happens, and I take the profit within a few seconds, and that it would do no good to post the trade if the timing was off even by a few seconds (not milliseconds I realize, I'm sorry I wasn't clear).
Thanks for the replies everyone--what I'm getting from you all is that there's really no way to verify past trade history reliably. I suppose even brokerage statements and things like this can be falsified, so what's the point right? I just can't think of too many professions where someone's success is so hard to verify. I guess this is mostly due to the proprietary nature of how some people trade. I'm not planning on needing to do this myself, just curious as to how accurate we can be about these things.
following trades at the second level will also be useless IMO.. there is too much latency out there... so if the trade lasts nothing but a few seconds, it will be hard to follow.. and I know that since I scalped TF for a very long time with trades lasting less than a minute..
If one was serious I'm sure there is someway to audit the results and prove legitimacy. In the end I think one will be well served by the old maxim "if it sounds too good to be true it probably is"
some brokers provide a facility to have an Id on the account management platform to read records... IBKR is one of them as a matter of fact... the only true way is to login into the account and view it yourself... I can "manufacture" any records to show anything I want, so obtaining so called "official" records is a bit of a joke.. assuming you are going after verifying trades, not profitability... for that piece you just need to get a signed 4506 from the "trader" and go to town with his corporate tax returns..
That's exactly why I started this thread, to get these answers.
"Probably" being the key word. I'm not looking for probabilities, I'm looking for evidence... the best traders, I realize, will not sell their methods, and likely don't even have "methods" to sell, as it's likely based in time-tested experience. So I'm not really looking at this from the standpoint of a consumer looking to buy, just from an observer looking to verify. For example, my broker, Velocity, has a "leader board" where I see the same guys every day near the top, making lots of money. As Mike mentioned, this can be faked by hedging and taking an opposite position and losing an equal amount in another account, and this would be one way to fake this (though in this case I don't see the point for these people).
For NT, we can have something very safe, if the destination (website) is not managed by the sender: the strategy send the orders, all is logged, and the sender is not able to modify the logs.
Easy...
Success requires no deodorant! (Sun Tzu)
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As some of you know I have been working for the last month on three set ups. I thought I'd take a minute and share the results of this effort. The win rate for these trades is over 90% in the last 30 days.
I have been trading CL using a 15 minute …
and yes I would trust the poster. and please explain how you would fake that kind of a statement.
Currently no such web site exists, correct? I just did a search on google and didn't come up with anything though it was not the most exhaustive search I've done.
dood, I think you left out +200 from your P&L... this took me about 1 minute with MS paint, with enough time I could have made it the exact same and event remove the "blackouts" and show some $$$...
I will tell you what a veteran options trader told me, that he can show you his corp tax returns or even his P&L doesnt mean that I will ever trade the way he does or even achieve the same succes as he has... so you can verify someone's P&L, but that doesnt mean you will make it your own if you know what I mean.
I'm just shocked that you think an image with a number on it means anything... at least a brokerage statement would look legitimate. That posted screen shot could be produced by most 4th graders these days.
By the way, I'm not saying this one is fake, of course. Just saying that it proves nothing. Which seems to be the consensus so far, that it really can't be proven.
I know, but I had to be conservative to bait the newbies and the skeptical ones..
IMO, the only thing that cant be cheated is a 4506... regardless of what you trade.. if equities/options, all trades will be reflected, and if futures/commodities then the 1099 will show gain/loss... so as per documentation, 4506.. but that wont tell the whole story anyhow as the trade could have written off quite a lot in the process of managing his/her tax liability...
it is either that, or reputation from a verifiable background (and a real background check) ...
Plus I believe people have the option to delete certain trades before importing them and it doesn't look like that's been addressed in 2.0.
Covestor might be another possibility.
Of course the best way for both parties is simply to provide the info in real-time (if applicable) which is what I did in a past life. People evaluating the service get to see things unfold in real-time with confirmation, and the trader(s) don't have to waste valuable time sending emails, posting to websites, managing a profit.ly type of account, etc., etc.
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As stated earlier, this option really doesn't work for many traders, as trades are heavily momentum based and there are only 1-5 seconds before momentum is detected and the order must be placed...
I guess I'm missing why a .pdf from a broker showing an account summary or trade list wouldn't suffice.
I'm sure there are guys out there that can break/modify .pdf's but I've never heard of such.
Like I also said, if a tradelist isn't good enough, because there's concepts your trying to verify in terms of seconds vs trade entries, etc,
Why wouldn't a virtual desktopviewer work?
In the end, if someone doesn't trust or believe you, then they'll be able to find potential fraud in any sort of evidence or documentation. I guess the only REAL way to prove success is to flaunt cold hard cash in front of their face, but again, they could simply assume you acquired it via some other method.
I know a successful hedge fund manager and he basically has a "take it or leave it" attitude with respect to his agreement. He has built up a successful client base and his agreement is very harsh...it basically says you give me your money, you don't call or ask questions and your money is tied up for not less than 1 year and there's no guarantees of anything other than a quarterly report. If you call me more than once a quarter, I'll send your money back, regardless of positive/negative spot equity.
When you're successful at what you do, the best proof is word of mouth and reference by someone else. I can't believe how harsh his agreement is and he still gets clients, because he's pretty good and gets good returns.
The following user says Thank You to RM99 for this post:
The best way to prove performance is to trade inside a corporate structure and have your track record audited by a reputable firm.
Most are not going to commit tax and securities fraud but you are correct there is nothing stopping people from acting like Enron or Madoff besides that the end game is pretty nasty.
sounds like Madoff, that is exactly what he used to do as well.. so IMO, a legitimate hedgefund wont have issues backing up their statements and returns, and still be selective with his clientele..
It is . Josh - Im following along with the "journal" debacle and the ensuing debate as to if "its" fake , sim , live , paranormal or whatever . What I dont understand is the WHY is it so important that you or I or anyone know beyond any shadow of a doubt if we collectively are being duped , mislead , taunted , upsold or whatever ??
Isnt it more significant that one can believe they can achieve this success then go out and do it and prove it to oneself ? Therefore one doesnt need to know or need to care what any other individual is up to or achieving ?
The question of the "journaller" attempting to upsell a method on behalf of themself or another is another issue that the mods should take care of . Its a big mistake to think one can duplicate anothers success by knowing their method because (as Ive said in the "journal" ) its not the arrow its the indian shooting the arrow . One who can reach this level of success has patience , focus , dicipline far beyond those that think they can take their method and share in the success . The successful one can take any method and score big with it .
Btw - for forex you can use this service , its real handy .
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You're absolutely right Eric -- as I said in that thread yesterday, unless the OP comes back, I'm done with it, as all the arguing and such has helped my trading ZERO. Thanks for the reminder.
In fact, on that note, if a moderator sees this, would you mind closing this thread?
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