Bat plays its role, and uptill now excellent 26 points move up. That is just one example on bigger time frame, inside it when it starts to unfold, on smaller time frames Patteren with pattern of Butterfly then gartly happens, Later on gartly unfolds . Great Move
Please discuss the PriceActionSwing (PAS) indicator in this thread. Any comments or suggestions are more than welcome here. If you have a more private issue send me a PM or better an Email (you'll find …
Some fun reading this thread, so I will post some of my charts as well:
Recommended reading on Fibonacci :
(1) Robert C. Miner: High Probability Trading Strategies - In my opinion the best book on the subject, of those I have read
(2) Carolyn Boroden: Fibonacci Trading - Influenced by Robert C.Miner, but not as accurate
(3) Larry Pesavento: Trade What You See - Easy Read, Focus on Visual Patterns like ABCD, Gartley, Butterfly and Three Push Pattern
(4) Constance Brown: Fibonacci Analysis - A different approach to Fibonacci Analysis. slightly oversophisticated and not always easy to understand, but worth reading
(5) Joe DiNapoli: Trading with DiNapoli Levels - An Oldtimer
Harmonic trading for me is about waves that superimpose and exhibit self-stabilizing or self-reinforcing characteristics. The golden ratio Phi has the property that Phi = 1 / (1+Phi). If wave 2 retraces 38.2% of wave 1, if then wave 3 has the same length as wave 1, it will stop at 161.8% of the first wave measured from the beginning of the first wave. If wave 4 also retraces 38.2% it will have retraced exactly to the end of wave1.
Some classical rules of trading, such as measured moves, resistance that becomes support and Fibonacci retracements and extensions reinforce each other, and you will find cluster areas as a result of application of these rules.
I will try to present a number of setups here that rely on Fibonacci Cluster. This works well on intraday charts, so I will start with CL today.
Three charts of CL:
The first one shows fibonacci confluence areas with standard settings. The lookback period is 300 days and the confluence zones displayed are extracted from 540 different Fibonacci levels, those in the vicinity of price action of today. The idea behind is not to take the last 2 swings that are visible on the chart, but take the larger swings that occured during a longer period backward. The indicator uses an internal zigzag to define these swings.
The chart shows 3 typical applications : Entry for the second leg of an ABC correction, retracement entry for start of 3rd wave, exit for a 3rd wave.
The second chart shows the various Fibonacci lines that add up to the confluence zones in detail, maybe explain this in detail later.
The third chart shows an optimized setting of the confluence lines. It is a cheated chart, because the minimum deviation of the zigzag and width of the confluence zones has been adjusted in hindsight to match the outcome. However the first chart is with standard settings, and on the second chart you will find that the lines have not been invented. Actually it is better to display fewer lines than more, because the fewer lines have a higher probability of causing a reaction. Therefore I do not use this on charts < 5 min, but mostly on 30 min or 60 min charts.
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These charts show the details of Fibonacci Confluence Zones by explaining the lines in terms of swing highs, swing lows, retracements, extensions, projections and alternates. You will find that the lines cluster, although five different methods have been used to put the concerto together. Clustering is made possible by the golden ratio. which is self-reinforcing and therefore found in nature as well.
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I've read the Larry Pesavento book and a boat load of pdf's found by doing a google search, many which are repetitive. Pesavento's style fits me so I have system modeled around it with variations. I do have Miner's books next on my list. I''ve skimmed through all of the other books at the local book store and didn't find Boroden's or Brown's books that appealing. I do want read DiNapoli's at some time. I've read Scott Carney ebook, The Harmonic Trader, it is very similar to Pesavento's stuff.
I'll reconsider the Boroden /Brown books and maybe get them read this year. There is an infinite number of ways to trade and anything I can add to my trading toolbox to make me a better trader and more profitable trader is well worth investigating.
And your bottom confluence zone held on the 6E chart. By 5 ticks , got to love it when it all works out as laid out.
(1) It reads Gartely pattern on top, but butterfly below, these are two different patterns.
(2) It is not a Gartley pattern, the specific two-legged ABCD correction never occured.
(3) The butterfly shown is mere fiction and never happened. If you like I can draw potential butterflies in any chart. One of the dangers with pattern recognition is to anticipate them, before they occur. This one never occured. A butterfly is only bullish after completion.
(4) If you look at the daily chart of CTXS you will find that a trend line simply was promoted to a trend channel line as an established trend weakened.
(5) Bullish Gartley and Butterfly patterns typically occur after a downtrend and are reversal not trend continuation patterns as this one.
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There was a perfect Gartley pattern that could be observed for EURUSD today.
One leg up, two legs down. The second leg down stopped just below the 61.8% retracement target. You can see what happened afterwards.
The Gartley pattern is the easiest to understand. One impulse (trend) wave up, followed by a two-legged correction, which showed that the bears needed two attacks to drive price down just by about 64%.
If you watch out closely, you can see the little butterfly on the lower right corner within the Gartley pattern. The second chart shows a 1 min chart of EURUSD.
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Thank you for showing us another tool in this Harmonic World.
Fat Tails and TraderJesse,
Thank you for bringing back life into this thread.
My intention was from the beginning to put it out there in order to show people how to apply this and how to integrate it into their trading.
My approach reached only to include the AB=CD pattern and all it's rules. It is the basics upon which all the patterns are built.
I'd appreciate it very much if people would keep the spirit of the thread, and keep on presenting material that has an educational essence. By saying that it doesn't mean that we should keep out of posting Harmonic stuff. Please post those things, but try to do your best in order to keep it educational.
Thank You!
We all struggle to make tomorrow look like yesterday!
Get rid of your past and let the future unfold from the now. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
/George
I promised to keep the thread alive and post as I have time. Unfortunately I've lacked time for posting, and I'm sorry for that. But here's a parenthesis:
A small repetition:
AB = CD 60% of the time.
That tells us that the relations are equal. Relations = such factors as
time (amount of bars)
price (amount of ticks)
CD = an extension of AB based upon the following numbers
1,270
1,618
2,618
40% of the time.
That tells us that if the CD leg is passing the 100% of AB we're going to look for the next level, which is based upon those numbers presented above.
CLUES!!!
(Remember this, because it is very important, and it's going to give you very much higher edge than normal)
After the BC leg is finished (and you know that by expecting the ,382 or ,50 levels in case the move is fast, otherwise ,618 or ,786 the more normal numbers) , start looking for clues directly as the CD leg starts to shape. And the clues for an expansion are:
If you see those in the beginning of the CD leg, or during its shaping, then you can assume that the CD is going to be an expansion of the AB leg.
We all struggle to make tomorrow look like yesterday!
Get rid of your past and let the future unfold from the now. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
/George
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We all struggle to make tomorrow look like yesterday!
Get rid of your past and let the future unfold from the now. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
/George
This how the ES pattern worked out that I had posted before:
- the bearish butterfly played out
- and was followed by a bullish Gartley pattern
- which in turn was followed by another bearish butterfly
All of them correctly predicted price action as it was developping within the trading range. Volatily was reduced, so each pattern was smaller than the prior pattern.
The congestion was resolved in late afternoon with a small bullish breakout to a new high.
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Can you please check the middle diagram entitled '"Classic" ABCD', at the top of page two.
Are the Fib. ratios the wrong way round? Or have I not yet grasped the concept properly?
Sorry for the long time gap between your posting (2nd Oct. 2009) and this reply, but I just discovered this website last week.
I am really impressed with what I have seen so far. Many thanks for your efforts.
Let's try and put some life back in to this thread. I've just downloaded the latest Kor Harmonics Indicator for Metatrader. It's very very nice. I have always been a fan of Zup I have numerous versions the latest being V82. However, this Kor Indicator picks up a lot more patterns namely 5-0, 3 drives, one2one's and AB=CD's. It also identifies Head and Shoulder patterns too.
My method of trading these patterns is fairly simple. I basically look for the pattern to occur at a fib retracement or projection from a much larger swing. I look for patterns on H4 and taking levels from the Weekly and Daily.
I set an order at the level (ignoring price action) with a tight stop and that is pretty much it.
I've tried incorporating the Hurst Exponent with the patterns but am not convinced that this method works for me.
Is anyone using Hurst with these patterns ??
If anyone fancies a chat on Skype regarding Harmonic trading feel free to hit me up...Username: ceydababy1
Good Trading
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...with all the excitement and drama happening in the middle east, I was wondering where CL would be heading. Since the only "LEADING INDICATOR" I know is the Butterfly, why don't I give it a shot.
Go Go Go gentle butterfly...flap your wings
"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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Very interesting, but let me ask -- what is your entry point (price) and what is your stop? On this type of market you may need a 500 tick or 1,000 tick stop if you are going to try and hold for the 126.00 zone.
Hi Mike, I took your suggestion on this exercise...the Monthly chart is the projected profits, targets 1, 2, & 3. The 10 minute chart is the actual entry, 97.27...3 contracts exiting targets 1, 2, & 3 respectfully.
Well, I realized from my public trade calling on Eur/usd chat room that I would need at least 100k trading account to handle $300 swings. So I figured I would at least need a 1 million dollar trading account to trade this monthly...make it 3 million since I'm trading 3 contracts
As far a stop loss goes, well, it's more of a read exercise for me, but I would put at the C of the AB=CD.
"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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If the confluence @ 1.3040 fails and price action smashes through it,
the next level of confluence that may provide good information is shown in the red circle
Here we have four lines, including a bc expansion and R2 pivot line for weekly.
the pattern, if it reaches the red circle, would be an imprecise butterfly,the ab retracement is not exact 0.786
the yellow circle would be a gartley of sorts.
Again the b point has not retraced exactly to 0.618 so the shape is not precise.
However, i am closing first long position at gartley prz, and holding other for butterfly
Conclusion. Looking at the h1/h4 shape, we have a prz around 1.3040, as represented by yellow circle
this is further defined by a prs on smaller timeframe that has same prz. ( yellow circle)
I dont know, i will find out how accurate these shapes work when combined with other important lines, such as pivots.
Taking it too seriously? this is pretty simple application of simple fibs and simple concept of confluence. Making it a tradeable system will be serious work.
I would say this price level is an extremely important turning point for the euro. See possibility i have outlined with daily chart below?
The lines drawn are merely defining zones that could be important. I think confluence is a tradable idea. the lines after the fact were, what i guess, were used to pin down harmonic theory. Only doing this in real time will prove it is beneficial to me.
Well it seems to have pinned off prz and tested all lines within
need it below 1.3049 for confirmation of down move. 1.3049 is low of terminal price bar on m15
OK, so here we have some context to describe some possibilities as outlind by harmonics, of the next move at a critical point in eur/usd.
Chart one shows the d point which we are currently retracing from. As you can see ,we have two d points, one belonging to a shape within a shape. There really is enough confluence here to expect a larger move than .382 of the swing up. The d points line up. it all is very bunched.
Chart two shows a bullish bat, really a continuation pattern at tops. A retracement shape that could help define the depth of down move before new highs are made.
Having done all this, i imagine a stop grabbing move to 1.3160 is not out of the question first!
Sorry for reviving this old thread. I recently got into harmonic pattern trading and am trading mainly in the FOREX market (as I have no idea about futures haha). This is a potential ABCD pattern forming.
Feel free to correct me if you think I am doing this incorrectly as I am a newbie in harmonic patterns hehe.
Currency: USD/JPY
Timeframe: Daily (D1)
I took the trade in my demo account. With the TP at 1.27 of Fib extension.
However the first chart is with standard settings, and on the second chart you will find that the lines have not been invented. Actually it is better to display fewer lines than more, because the fewer lines have a higher probability of causing a reaction. Therefore I do not use this on charts < 5 min, but mostly on 30 min or 60 min charts.
These charts show the details of Fibonacci Confluence Zones by explaining the lines in terms of swing highs, swing lows, retracements, extensions, projections and alternates. You will find that the lines cluster, although five different methods have been used to put the concerto together. Clustering is made possible by the golden ratio. which is self-reinforcing and therefore found in nature as well.
, got to love it when it all works out as laid out.
"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
