I recently tossed the question out there about trading on days Bernanke speaks. Thanks for your replies. In that same vein, I now ask for your thoughts on trading on a quadruple witching day. Best to stay clear due to extreme chopiness or a good opportunity to cash in on some nice movement?
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I've learned to avoid trading Wednesday-Friday on those weeks. A lot of position plays going on, and especially right now adding "explosive" situations in Japan and Middle-East into mix, I rather have that long due root canal operation at dentist... equal pain but at most times ends up being less expensive, lol!
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If you are a trend follower, my opinion is you will have problems on triple witching days, especially if volatility is already on the low side. The prices of underlying instruments tend to get "pinned" to the nearest strike price of options on the instrument, a function of the fact that the "time value" of the option has decayed to almost nothing. If, for example, ZBH11 is trading at 120 and you can buy a ZB 120 March call for two ticks and you can buy a 120 March put for the same price, you make a tick if ZBH11 settles more than 4 ticks away from 120. You buy the straddle at 4 and anytime ZBH11 is more than 4 ticks away from 120, you can lock in the difference by selling or buying the futures contract. The closer the future gets to settlement , the smaller that difference will be, both because the time value continues to decay and because some profit is better than none (owners of that straddle get more aggressive about taking profits the closer in time you get to expiration".
"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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