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I have been working on creating a set of bands to use instead of Bollingers. When I was evaluating my creation, I noticed what I considered an unusual property. The peak/trough of the bands gives price projection levels for the next or subsequent moves. It seems to be useful for next swing analysis as well as multi-day extremes for next major level analysis. Is this a less common use that I didn't know about with various band types? Or a happy accident that i have run into with my creation?
I am attaching a 5 min ES chart with 12 days of data, bands attached, and horizontal lines drawn at major extremes to demonstrate. Friday 2/18's data is not included, but the top horizontal line is positioned at 1342.75 which ends up being 1 tick below HOD.
If nothing else, I was hoping to start a discussion about how other people use bands in non-traditional ways that work for them.
For the most part swings in the opposite direction are covered as well. However they do tend to form in the swing or 2 prior instead of a day + ahead of time especially if it is a hard turn. On excessively strong moves, it may be little more than slight hook in the band about 8-10 bars ahead of price. But on a 5 minute chart that is still 40-50 minutes to work with.
I picked a random day back in time and marked up the chart. 3/24 & 3/25 2010. The 24th was an inside day so that may show you a bit how it looks with oscillations, also I did not look at the 25th while drawing lines. The 25th opened up, moved up a bit then reversed. So may also be something along the lines you were talking about. I think there is possibility for more nuance with how the bands are working too. I just don't know the probabilities yet.
Of course this is all supportive work since you will still have to determine direction, but having some reasonable price points through the day tends to help me out.
It is not just you about BBs. And I did not think you were being critical. You posed a good question.
I just read the random line thread, and that just makes me think I should only look at the extremes or the prior swing if I am going to try to develop this any further. Basically just establish a range within which I would be comfortable placing trades. Then utilize the prior swing band as a projection target for continuation trades. More simple, less chart mess.
