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Some highly recommended books
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Some highly recommended books

  #441 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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sands View Post
A lot of traders find the emotional/psychological part tough.
The best way to reduce that problem that I've seen many many professionals use is to focus on technique and to make trading a mechanical process and to stick to that process consistently. It is then largely free of psychology, well as much as it can be when you have your own money on the line :-)

This is 100% correct , Trading books full of anecdotes and subjective crap are no use at all and that describes 99% of trading books out there . If it cant be formulated and backtested there is no proof of anything . Ive read this entire thread and some of the books reccomended here are shockers . From one of my fave trading books


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If you ever actually knew the probability of a fibonacci level doing what you expect it to you would never put another fib on a chart again , EW fails in the same class . All subjective junk with a severe Hindsite bias when one of the 7 or how ever may fib lines you put on a charts works . This is from Adam Grimes , hope he doesnt mind


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Pick your books wisely and dont believe a word you read in any of them until you have applied critical thinking to the concepts . most trading books will poison your mind not help it . Evidence creates clarity , seek it . Use a scientific approach and seek tools to acheive this .... hint be a quant

Psychology another rort , if you have a systematic approach with a robust expectancy you might need a head doctor if you fail to execute but many green traders think psychology books will cure there woes when whats really broken is their method or a total lack of one . Get a method/system before you buy any psychology book . As ive stated before positive expectancy leads to a positive mindset , not the other way around .....


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I have close to 500 trading books on drive and i doubt there is more than 20 worth reading . I like quant style books , i suggest everyone reads a couple ... H Bandy a good start . trade well guys

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  #442 (permalink)
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I would like to mention that sometimes books that are not related directly to trading have helped me understand trading better. For example, game theory/microeconomics helped understand how individuals interact with groups.

It led me to thoughts how individuals traders face the challenge of guessing the markets(group behaviour).
In my opinion, once you understand these concepts you will stop guessing tops and bottoms because the likelihood of being right on it is close to zero. Even when an analyst says he sees stock/futures/bond double in price, it is again a prediction to guess tops and bottom because he.she is gauging how a group will react to data.

I came across a book called "Nudge" by Richard Thaller and Cass Sunstein. The theme of the book is whether we as humans make truly objective and independent decision. The answer to that is not really. It shows how systematically we are manipulated due to our way of thinking.

We should strive to always be conscious of our decision because then we will rely less on impulses hopefully.
In trading, many of our mistakes are related to impulses.

I enjoyed this book, and I thought I will share.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

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  #443 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Well said @mattz. Behavioral economics shows nicely how so many irrational decisions are made for the wrong reasons.

One of the easiest examples is to assume I have $1 and I get to divide it up between you and I. If we both agree on how it is divided we both get to keep our share, while if we disagree we both get nothing. I should divide the $1, 99c to me and 1c to you. Since having 1c is better than nothing you should agree with this division and except it. Studies have shown though that divisions higher than 70:30 normally get rejected due to the perception of it not being fair. ie People make a bad economic decision because they perceive it to be unfair. Of course this heavily dependent upon your utility function. 1c isn't meaningful to most people and the results would probably be different if it was $100 Million rather than $1.

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  #444 (permalink)
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@SMCJB I relate to your example. I have seen this behavior in real life. It seems that many of our "programmed" reactions sure indicate that we need to quiet ourselves before we respond. Left brain type advice.

I remember that after reading some blogs/books about behavioral decision making, I changed my approach.
Rather than try and guess what will work out, I decided to approach with what will not work out.
Essentially you eliminate and say no to things. In my opinion, this approach has changed my decision making for the better.

If you are a trader looking at multiple markets, multiple screens, and multitude of methods, and trying to decide which is the "best" set up, maybe you eliminate those that have poor setups? then focus on the remaning markets.
This is not a unique approach. Some venture capitalists use this approach in deciding which companies they should go after and invest in. They clearly don't have expertise in every area, however, they know with certainty what they don't want to be in or involved with.

Thanks,
Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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  #445 (permalink)
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mattz View Post
I remember that after reading some blogs/books about behavioral decision making, I changed my approach. Rather than try and guess what will work out, I decided to approach with what will not work out.
Essentially you eliminate and say no to things. In my opinion, this approach has changed my decision making for the better.

I agree. In statistics the probability of something happening is one minus the probability of it not happening. In many cases it is a lot easier to calculate in the probability of it not happening that it happening.

Hate to sound like I'm preaching but there's a great example of this. You've probably heard that you only need to have 23 people in a room before it is more likely that two or more people share a Birthday than not. Calculating the probability of people sharing a Birthday is very difficult. What happens if three people or four people share a Birthday rather than just two? Calculating the probability of NOT sharing a Birthday though is easy.
  • If you have one person, the probability of him not sharing it with somebody else is obviously 1
  • If you have two, the probability is 1 * 364/365 (ie that it is different) = 0.997
  • If you have three it's 1 * 364/365 *363/365 (ie the 3rd is different than the previous two) = 0.992
  • ...
  • If you have 23 it's 1 * 364/365 *363/365 * ... * 344/365 = 0.494
Well if the probability of not sharing a Birthday is 0.494, then the probability of sharing a Birthday is (1-0.494) = 0.506!

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  #446 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
I agree. In statistics the probability of something happening is one minus the probability of it not happening. In many cases it is a lot easier to calculate in the probability of it not happening that it happening.

Hate to sound like I'm preaching but there's a great example of this. You've probably heard that you only need to have 23 people in a room before it is more likely that two or more people share a Birthday than not. Calculating the probability of people sharing a Birthday is very difficult. What happens if three people or four people share a Birthday rather than just two? Calculating the probability of NOT sharing a Birthday though is easy.
  • If you have one person, the probability of him not sharing it with somebody else is obviously 1
  • If you have two, the probability is 1 * 364/365 (ie that it is different) = 0.997
  • If you have three it's 1 * 364/365 *363/365 (ie the 3rd is different than the previous two) = 0.992
  • ...
  • If you have 23 it's 1 * 364/365 *363/365 * ... * 344/365 = 0.494
Well if the probability of not sharing a Birthday is 0.494, then the probability of sharing a Birthday is (1-0.494) = 0.506!

Nice one S. - I'm sure I studied this at school but I hardly remember anything from school

How is this calculation called? (appreciate it may be off-topic, in which case feel free to PM me)

Thanks

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  #447 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Sum of a Geometric Series

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  #448 (permalink)
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feedback wanted: Henry Carstens, 101 Trading Ideas

Has anybody read https://www.amazon.com/101-Trading-Ideas-Magical-Fast-Paced/dp/0997724706 ?

His presentations sound a bit like if he was giving new names to old things: mean reversal, correlation, co-integration, pair trading. I'm okay with it as long as I read something new for me.

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  #449 (permalink)
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How Emotions are Made

I'm listening to this book and I find it fascinating. Buying the kindle version later today too. This is groundbreaking work that I find extremely relevant to trading.

How Emotions Are Made: The Secret Life of the Brain
by Prof. Lisa Feldman Barrett Ph.D



The classical view of emotions holds that there is a "finger print" for emotion common in all people and this research shatters that hypothesis.

Ron

It is an axiomatic fact that while you meditate you are speaking with your own spirit. In that state of mind you put certain questions to your spirit and the spirit answers: the light breaks forth and the reality is revealed.
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
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  #450 (permalink)
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For the option side this is a great book , not really newbie material

https://www.amazon.com/Option-Traders-Hedge-Fund-Framework/dp/0132823403


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