@Michael.H, I did not intend my post as a personal attack against anyone, and I apologize if you or anyone else took it personally. IMO expectancy can't account for stopping out because your limit order didn't fill, because the assumption is that it will. To anyone else reading this, I simply recommend that you do what makes sense to you.
It might, it might not. But you omitted something else. You assumed that a newer trader doesn't move his stop to break-even after it goes up 2 ticks, out of fear that it will go back and stop him out. So their account is more like +2,+0,+1, -10.
Trading is a psychological game, nothing else. Once you figure that out, then things start to make sense. Bid/ask, order flow, bla bla bla as you described it.... its just a way to measure it. Thats why i say do your homework. You need to figure out what everyone does, that DOESNT work( meaning they lose money)... Thats it..lol
All this crap about " i spent 10k and after 7 years i can't make money" is just nonsense.
I was a biopsych major( its a mix of psychology and biology).... One of my favorite classes i took then was a graduate level course about social psychology.
The first slide he put up on the first day of class," You are not special"... That may sound mean, but its true.
That was many years ago, but i'll never forget it. Everyone thinks that their different, or their the exception to the rule. Well, if that was true, then trading would really be random, and unprofitable. You can guess where im going with this, so ill leave it at that.
Thanks for the posts, its nice to hear that some poeple listen, which is why i still post. But, again, there's very little else i can give. There just isn't that much to trading. You have to do your homework, and adapt with the market.
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I don't think it's that widely unknown that all orders aren't treated fairly. It's no mystery that hedge funds and other institutions place their servers RIGHT at the exchange. In some cases they plug themselves directly into them. Ask yourself who really drives the price - if you're seeing a big move in the ES and at the same time the Dow is getting a lot of bids away from current price and then they automatically disappear once the market gets there... congrats, you've learned that trading isn't fair.
If you think you're having latency issues... here is an interesting article I think you all will find interesting... might have some problems with rent though.
I better understand where are you coming from and I was not trying to belittle market delta, order flow, and other similar types of analysis. My intention is to always help people and as I read the thread I did not see any solutions to his problem being presented and that was the solution I wanted to present. Perhaps I did a poor job of emphasizing the point, but I truly believe that letting a trade go from almost hitting your profit target to break even or a full stop out is really bad in many ways. Every situation is different, but if it's sitting on my target and not filling or has tried several times to push past a price point and failed and it's close enough, then l lock it in. In this instance, I was not trying to make any other recommendations in regard to trade management. Hopefully there are no hard feelings.