However, some trading is like gambling except with worst odds than a roulette table.
I was long gold futures below 300 and called 1031 as a top (the actual was 1030.50 (This was before electronic training and I was taken out on a 1 lot (my lot) and 20 pt run on my stop in o/n . So this before I knew what thieves they were. Just imagine 20 points at the 325 level and a chart is a line going along at 325 a single dot at 305 and then it continues at 325. After fighing for a month with my broker for a copy of the ticket a got a piece of paper with a time stamp - no brokerage houses no trader numbers nothing just that. I was furious and closed my account (commission were $35 per side then and in the day time it would take as much as an hour to find out if you were filled on a trade and what the rpice was.. After that experience I just couldn't get back in.
In 2007 I said this is a perfect double top - just like Gann writes about, a 7 year period from peak to peak. I sold out my mom's entire equity portfolio and when short the with the HXD (too early as I recall because the Cdn market had another bump up as oil was surging and Canada was being touted a "petro currency". Her account was up 10% by the low of 2009 even though I only used 30% for the HXD. The S&P fell from 1576 to 666.75 (ES values) so a drop of 909pts or 57.7% on the 1576 base. So others lost 57% and she made 10% with only 30% exposure.
In many ways I feel that our biggest obstacles are:
our own personalities,
the thieves "floor brokers" that manipulate prices
futures houses that trade against clients
and our own big egos.
Yet dispite all these obstacles I'm sure it can be done.
It certainly helps if you are well-capitalized, however.
Also I don't think you are going to do it unless you think outside the box - or have a very lucky period that moves you to high capital levels so you can move to more conservative strategies.
Just my view.
Good trading to everyone.
Last edited by aquarian1; November 20th, 2012 at 01:50 AM.
Guys, listen to me, no luck, you will never predict the market, you just dont understand what realy happening behind the charts.Market Maker only makes money,ask WHY?? Because its a market structure,otherwise market will stop to work.95% of trader are FUEL for maket.If crowd short,market goes up, if crowd long market goes down, market always goes where more money,what does it mean,it means where are stop loses.Market maker always manipulats the market so,that many traders have to be on the other side, against market maker.You guys will always lose your money,some people earlier,some people later.Just think about guys.
(Sorry my English?not my first lenguage)
The following 2 users say Thank You to Vitaliy for this post:
Yes this is true that the manipulators move it against the retail and go for the stops.
This is why correctly estimating where the stops are is so important to success, IMO.
That the 95% are fuel for the market is OK, the 95% follow "instructors", inidcators etc and their losses are an enivtable result of their approach. It is important to understand how the 95% (the masses) think and not do what they do.
You must approach it differently than most people do, to get different results.
Good trading to everyone.
The following user says Thank You to aquarian1 for this post:
eh, Nah I haven't started a new thread because I'm not that knowledgeable on the subject. I watched all 11 of these guys videos on the subject and he tries to sell his system at the end. I don't really like when traders sell their systems for obvious reasons. It is very interesting though. I'd like more information on the internals of what market makers do, but its hard to find such things on the internet.
However, out of all the systems I've seen for sale, this guy definitely throws a curve ball. lol
I understand. I am slowing working through the videos and taking notes. I'm not too worried about him selling as sometimes a new perspective added to one's own knowledge can give a fresh take. As the manipulation of the markets is something shared by others in the past and seems true to me I can relate to the theme.
In the olden days, Gann Livermore etc spoke of manipulation and it was a commonly accepted idea.
To keep one's trading from being gambling and losing one must do differently from the 99% as they lose over time
(mathematically they must).