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Random Line Theory


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Random Line Theory

  #91 (permalink)
 
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 devdas 
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emmm...6203 Random lvl had already got "significance" from yesterday ( 3-Jan ) so not truely random expectation from that


[IMG]http://www4.picturepush.com/photo/a/4797232/img/NF/NF1-%285-Min%29--1-4-2011.png[/IMG]


here are Random lvls for 5-Jan,



[IMG]http://www3.picturepush.com/photo/a/4797321/img/NF/NF-Random-05Jan-11.png[/IMG]


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  #92 (permalink)
 
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 trendisyourfriend 
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Pivotfarm uses zones of 1 point large to identify their key levels maybe you might like to define random zones instead of random lines to make your point even more convincing.

I have uploaded their TF chart for today at the bottom.

Here the CL chart from Pivotfarm:

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  #93 (permalink)
 
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Here are the results of the random lines picked yesterday. This is today's cash session.

I want to emphasize the lines are not being posted so you can trade them. The lines are random. Why would you want to trade them. The lines are being posted to challenge your beliefs about other lines that you DO trade, and the properties you assign those.

Mike

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  #94 (permalink)
 
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Here are the lines for TOMORROW. 87.87, 88.38, 89.40, 89.92, 90.38. They were calculated at random.org by entering a minimum of 8750 and maximum of 9150, which is roughly 200 ticks above/below the closing price today.

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  #95 (permalink)
 mainstream 
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Three comments on this thread.

First is that Richard Regan who is on CNBC and BLOOMBERG and runs that prop trading operation, has been shouting that pivot, and fibs and other mystic lines on a chart a BS.

Second, lines like Pivots and Fibs are usually good for a scalp because so many people are watching those levels and trading them (self fullfuling indicator in essance.)

And thrid, one might argue that since you know the CL so well, you might be subconscioulsy picking levels that have had significance for you in past trades, that you're not consciously aware of...

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  #96 (permalink)
 
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mainstream View Post
And thrid, one might argue that since you know the CL so well, you might be subconscioulsy picking levels that have had significance for you in past trades, that you're not consciously aware of...

That is why for every day except day 1, I used a website random.org to pick the numbers.

Mike

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  #97 (permalink)
 
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 trendisyourfriend 
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mainstream View Post
Three comments on this thread.

First is that Richard Regan who is on CNBC and BLOOMBERG and runs that prop trading operation, has been shouting that pivot, and fibs and other mystic lines on a chart a BS.

Second, lines like Pivots and Fibs are usually good for a scalp because so many people are watching those levels and trading them (self fullfuling indicator in essance.)

And thrid, one might argue that since you know the CL so well, you might be subconscioulsy picking levels that have had significance for you in past trades, that you're not consciously aware of...

I am sure, at the end, Big Mike will realise that what counts is volume to gauge the usefulness of a level. All else is pure conjecture, guesstimate or even better a shot in the dark.

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  #98 (permalink)
 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
I am sure, at the end, Big Mike will realise that what counts is volume to gauge the usefulness of a level. All else is pure conjecture, guesstimate or even better a shot in the dark.

I don't think I'm going to make that realization any time soon.

Price moves whether there is a little volume or a lot, and my stops and targets are based on price. My entire methodology is built around price. No doubt, there are many successful traders that have methodologies built around volume. There are other threads that are well suited for a discussion of volume, but this thread is not one of them.

Scenario 1:
Price comes down to a line and then "bounces off" that line.

We call that line support.

That line maybe was created by an indicator. Perhaps a pivot. Perhaps a fibonacci retracement. Perhaps an extension. A trend line. All kinds of things.

Now, Scenario 2:
Price comes down to a line and then "bounces off" that line.

We call that line support.

This time, the line was created by a random number generator. Our mind automatically says hmm, that line really has no weight -- no significance. Yet, here I am "seeing" (visualizing) the same type of behavior that my other indicators give me.

In reality, if you continue searching you'll find a dozen reasons for why price may have done what it did that have absolutely nothing to do with the random number (clearly), or anything to do with the fib retracement, pivot, MACD, CCI, whatever. Look long enough and you'll find something.

To me, I am just opening my mind up to accept the possibility that these other tools are not as important as I once thought they were.

Mike

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  #99 (permalink)
 incometrade 
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Trendisyourfriend....how do you come up with those zones on pivotfarm? Which ones are you using for the cl?

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  #100 (permalink)
 
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This thread should have ended last year

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