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I really wanted to not respond to anything relating to this thread any more.
But I am weak.
The point of the thread, and of the experiment, if anyone will actually do it and reflect on it, is not anything about randomness, and certainly not about trading based on random lines (!!!). Also, it is absolutely not about either that everything is random (which it isn't), nor that you can make money by being random yourself (duh. You can't).
It's about how your mind sees things in hindsight that don't really exist.
And it's an experiment. You can try it and see what you think. @Big Mike's explanations in the first couple of posts were pretty clear about that. Do it and see what you think.
If this doesn't speak to you, or help you in understanding your own trading when it isn't successful, then just move on. Nothing to see here. But, on the other hand, it might.
And I agree with @Rrrracer: read the whole thread.
Thoughts from my diary regarding this topic. I used to disrespect lines I had drawn on my chart. In the back of my mind was always this voice telling me it is nonsense because of the 'conventional wisdom' regarding random line theory. The struggle was real. On one hand, I would go to the effort of identifying swings on the chart, but on the other hand, I would not truly trust my work. I was giving authority to the opinions of others and not backing my own analysis. Its a massive internal conflict which, until addressed, will have hugely negative consequences in your decision making abilities.
So what does a line actually mean? Its not a signal to do anything. Do not feel compelled to act when price reaches it. The line is simply a notification to your future self, that, should you see an event unfolding at this location (whatever your trading signal is) then the signal has significance.
For instance, if you hunt reversals in choppy conditions, then a highly effective way to do so is VSA. This trading technique requires that you plan and lay your charts out appropriately prior to taking trades. It is impossible to trade PA VSA without this kind of preperation.
A line does not represent your opinion of the market. A line is not guesswork. The swings you identify are fact. You have to learn to trust yourself 100%.
Nice example. Works on any time frame - if the risk required for a 100y chart is too steep. I'll add that I see equidistant ranges. That's two measures to the sweet spot. In that center group of flags, I'd bet a scalper's risk that you would find a 4th parallel line anchored at the L, would be at the same range.
One of the more reliable patterns, imo. and easily scalable with tactical tweaks, for taking on the HTF participants.
This was such an interesting read, just to get better understanding I read it couple of times over period of almost a year.
What I'm about to say here are just measly words of intermediate trader, I've gone through various phases in my trading life since I started in 2015 and my conclusions have been very alike to what this thread here is trying to say, at least I think it is.
I came to trading life like most other people, through some overly expensive market course during my Uni days, for the period of course we were told how content of the course was the ultimate way of trading and we basically need not worry about anything else. And believe it or not, it did work for period of time(mostly till the period of course), to the point of getting marveled, till suddenly it was not working anymore (After the course). Reasons are various, change in market conditions, change in scripts traded, change in trader experience and emotions but just to sum them up in short, I was experiencing what one may call disillusion. After that and blowing my a/c, like any other trader, my journey to search for the "better indicator/way" to trade began, I went from basic default indies to advanced math indies, and later settled for things like MarketProfile, VolumeProfile, Orderflow and PnF over course of next 3 years.
If I had to really sum up my experience of this journey in simple short para it could be done like this; "me going to sleep around 11 PM and waking up around 6 AM is not a function of clock, its just the period when most other people do it, if most other people had done it other way around I would've found keeping same sleeping schedule unproductive, so would me using a clock to time it really make any difference? Or better yet, do I need the clock to tell me when most other people are waking up or going to sleep?"
Probably didn't make any sense at all, but trading can do this human mind, hope you don't mind
