Random Line Theory - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Random Line Theory
Updated: Views / Replies:68,220 / 358
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:100

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 100  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Random Line Theory

  #201 (permalink)
Hyde Park,
Chicago, Illinois
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradingview.com
Broker/Data: Optionhouse
Favorite Futures: Options
 
Bermudan Option's Avatar
 
Posts: 467 since May 2011
Thanks: 395 given, 252 received

please tell me I am not the only one who sees the irony of this thread being bumped when a certain journal on the forum giving eight numbers chosen by a special indicator and the advice for the futures.io (formerly BMT) members is, "I don't know what number is going to be important, but I know it is one of them will be important intraday"

Reply With Quote
 
  #202 (permalink)
Elite Member
Pt Vala
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Proprietary
Favorite Futures: CL, EUR, DAX
 
Posts: 58 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 12 given, 30 received


Bermudan Option View Post
please tell me I am not the only one who sees the irony of this thread

+1

Reply With Quote
 
  #203 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,651 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,601 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



Bermudan Option View Post
please tell me I am not the only one who sees the irony of this thread being bumped when a certain journal on the forum giving eight numbers chosen by a special indicator and the advice for the futures.io (formerly BMT) members is, "I don't know what number is going to be important, but I know it is one of them will be important intraday"


Random lines are only valid, if you carefully select them at midnight while watching the Full Moon.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
  #204 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,697 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,041 given, 4,496 received


Bermudan Option View Post
please tell me I am not the only one who sees the irony of this thread being bumped when a certain journal on the forum giving eight numbers chosen by a special indicator and the advice for the futures.io (formerly BMT) members is, "I don't know what number is going to be important, but I know it is one of them will be important intraday"

You should take these lines seriously. Some people sell them at a high price $550 for the US equity index (4) per month, no joke. To be sure, check this site: JS Product Overview

Also, this site: ToTheTick | Support and Resistance Trading - Futures and Forex

And this last one: Pivotfarm | The Home of Support and Resistance Trading

These lines are a precious commodity for some traders.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
  #205 (permalink)
Elite Member
hell de janeiro
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker/Data: mirus + zenfire
Favorite Futures: guitar
 
jayminho's Avatar
 
Posts: 54 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 20 received


Bermudan Option View Post
please tell me I am not the only one who sees the irony of this thread being bumped when a certain journal on the forum giving eight numbers chosen by a special indicator and the advice for the futures.io (formerly BMT) members is, "I don't know what number is going to be important, but I know it is one of them will be important intraday"

i wish i knew where to shove those numbers..
i never got them..
anyway

random lines rule!!!!!! )

Reply With Quote
 
  #206 (permalink)
Hyde Park,
Chicago, Illinois
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradingview.com
Broker/Data: Optionhouse
Favorite Futures: Options
 
Bermudan Option's Avatar
 
Posts: 467 since May 2011
Thanks: 395 given, 252 received


Big Mike View Post
But if people/traders are making trading decisions at random (which one could argue the majority of retail traders are), does that mean that since those decisions were random that the result ("the market") is also random? What I mean is that a lot of retail traders seem to have a plan or a system, a method, in place, but if you actually look at either what powers that method or at how the trader is actually executing on that method, I believe the results would be random. Maybe chaos is better than random.



Thoughts?

Mike

I learned that:

1.) The more lines you plot on a chart, the more probable one of them well become a factor. That is like playing Russian Roulette with 5 bullets in the chamber. You are increasing the chances your odds significantly with each additional line

2.) Lines on charts in themselves are already victims of our attempts to seek out patterns. For example, when traders look at resistance, we are taught that sometimes the price action might shoot beyond the resistance level before retracing. Also, we are taught that price action might fall short of the resistance level before retracing. yet we are also taught that price action sometimes directly touch the resistance level before retracing. So if we are looking at a stock about to break $5, any intraday/daily hesitation between 4.95 and 5.05 can be deemed as resistance coming into play. That is a 10% price range where no matter what happens, we will assume that the price is 'reacting' to resistance. In other words, resistance on a chart might be a line taking up 1/100 of a trading screen, but the way we use it as traders, it can sometimes represent 5-10% of the intraday price action.

3) Also, we need to take into account the fact that with every candlestick at resistance, we have four potential ways to confirm that the resistance level is true: the open, the low, the high or the close. If ANY of those interact with a random line, we assume that the resistance has played a role. From a probability standpoint, those are the kind of odds we want to take to Vegas with us.



I think one thing to remember is that the lines may be random because where the market starts and stops is arbitrary imo, but once a line is 'hit' it no longer is random as traders give it meaning. As a group once we give a certain area meaning, we base our future expectations on it, so a place that started off as a place where buyers and sellers convened becomes symbolic and a breach below that level means that the bulls have disappeared and vice versa.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Bermudan Option for this post:
 
  #207 (permalink)
Elite Member
Aurora, Il USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,872 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,301 given, 3,332 received


trendisyourfriend View Post
You should take these lines seriously. Some people sell them at a high price $550 for the US equity index (4) per month, no joke. To be sure, check this site: JS Product Overview

Also, this site: ToTheTick | Support and Resistance Trading - Futures and Forex

And this last one: Pivotfarm | The Home of Support and Resistance Trading

These lines are a precious commodity for some traders.

Just happen to notice your mentioning pivotfarm...I have spent a lot of time studying thier method....actually I figured it out before discovering them and when I found them it was nice for me. They essentially did my homework for me...that is until they wanted money for thier #s then I walked away. Anyway I guess I am off topic here but thier #s are definitely not random. The #s they provide work best for the 6e (and eur/usd) which was the same as what I came up with, also can be used with some sucess on tf...the rest, forget it. I don't really focus on that anymore because trades are infrequent and happen in the middle of the night most of the time but it does have a high success rate.


Last edited by kbit; June 25th, 2011 at 10:51 AM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #208 (permalink)
Elite Member
Castle Pines N, CO.
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/Zen-Fire)
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 201 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 196 given, 124 received

Random line/ Elliot Wave

Seems like Elliot Wave is similar to random lines, except the random lines in Elliot are created real time patterns, u 12345, abc ,, until something works.. Then say see it works...

Reply With Quote
 
  #209 (permalink)
Hyde Park,
Chicago, Illinois
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradingview.com
Broker/Data: Optionhouse
Favorite Futures: Options
 
Bermudan Option's Avatar
 
Posts: 467 since May 2011
Thanks: 395 given, 252 received


gg80108 View Post
Seems like Elliot Wave is similar to random lines, except the random lines in Elliot are created real time patterns, u 12345, abc ,, until something works.. Then say see it works...

Ambiguity is a key element behind all cults, con men and incorrect reasoning. A lack of a solid answers allows people to constantly shift the goalposts whenever a prediction comes up short.


Wikipedia entry on Elliot Wave
The premise that markets unfold in recognizable patterns contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, which states that prices cannot be predicted from market data such as moving averages and volume. By this reasoning, if successful market forecasts were possible, investors would buy (or sell) when the method predicted a price increase (or decrease), to the point that prices would rise (or fall) immediately, thus destroying the profitability and predictive power of the method. In efficient markets, knowledge of the Elliott Wave Principle among traders would lead to the disappearance of the very patterns they tried to anticipate, rendering the method, and all forms of technical analysis, useless.

Critics also warn the wave principle is too vague to be useful, since it cannot consistently identify when a wave begins or ends, and that Elliott wave forecasts are prone to subjective revision. Some who advocate technical analysis of markets have questioned the value of Elliott wave analysis. Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:[17]
The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.

Also it reminds me of:

Wikipedia entry on Sharpshooter Fallacy
The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is a logical fallacy in which information that has no relationship is interpreted or manipulated until it appears to have meaning. The name comes from a joke about a Texan who fires some shots at the side of a barn, then paints a target centered on the biggest cluster of hits and claims to be a sharpshooter.[1]

The fallacy does not apply if one had an ex ante, or prior, expectation of the particular relationship in question before examining the data. For example one might, prior to examining the information, have in mind a specific physical mechanism implying the particular relationship. One could then use the information to give support or cast doubt on the presence of that mechanism. Alternatively, if additional information can be generated using the same process as the original information, one can use the original information to construct a hypothesis, and then test the hypothesis on the new data. See hypothesis testing. What one cannot do is use the same information to construct and test the same hypothesis (see hypotheses suggested by the data) — to do so would be to commit the Texas sharpshooter fallacy.

The fallacy is related to the clustering illusion, which refers to the tendency in human cognition to interpret patterns in randomness where none actually exist.

and also

Wikipedia entry on Data Dreding
Data dredging (data fishing, data snooping) is the inappropriate (sometimes deliberately so) use of data mining to uncover misleading relationships in data. Data-snooping bias is a form of statistical bias that arises from this misuse of statistics. Any relationships found might appear to be valid within the test set but they would have no statistical significance in the wider population.


Data dredging and data-snooping bias can occur when researchers either do not form a hypothesis in advance or narrow the data used to reduce the probability of the sample refuting a specific hypothesis. Although data-snooping bias can occur in any field that uses data mining, it is of particular concern in finance and medical research, both of which make heavy use of data mining techniques.


The process of data mining involves automatically testing huge numbers of hypotheses about a single data set by exhaustively searching for combinations of variables that might show a correlation. Conventional tests of statistical significance are based on the probability that an observation arose by chance, and necessarily accept some risk of mistaken test results, called the significance. When large numbers of tests are performed, it is always expected that some will produce false results, hence 5% of randomly chosen hypotheses will turn out to be significant at the 5% level, 1% will turn out to be significant at the 1% significance level, and so on, by chance alone.

If enough hypotheses are tested, it is virtually certain that some will falsely appear to be statistically significant, since every data set with any degree of randomness contains some bogus correlations. Researchers using data mining techniques can be easily misled by these apparently significant results, even though they are mere artifacts of random variation.

When you sit down and really think about it though, trendlines are the exact same as well though..


Last edited by Bermudan Option; June 27th, 2011 at 07:38 PM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #210 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,651 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,601 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



Bermudan Option View Post
When you sit down and really think about it though, trendlines are the exact same as well though..

Trendlines are exactly the same as other areas of support and resistance. They are meeting points watched by many technical traders and work as self-fulfilling prophecy. They can either hold or break, and this is interpreted as the continuation or the reversal of a trend. Works as long everybody interprets the price action in a similar way.

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Random Line Theory

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
How advanced mathematics and gaming theory can help you as a trader RM99 Psychology and Money Management 203 February 5th, 2016 03:10 AM
Using Dow Theory indicator as a filter in automated strategies nanobiotech NinjaTrader Programming 8 March 28th, 2015 07:56 PM
Economic Theory PandaWarrior Off-Topic 10 May 15th, 2011 12:06 PM
Ryans Chewing Gum theory Ryanb Psychology and Money Management 2 December 8th, 2010 10:25 AM
GAME THEORY tigertrader Off-Topic 3 October 7th, 2010 09:16 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:21 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-12 in 0.17 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.163.209.109