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tom williams , i guess who brought us VSA a spin off , from wyckoff .. says that a market doesent like an up bar on ultra high volume .. as the smart money could sell into the rallie .. but this as you said could only be seen after the fact
.. but for example if u have clear signs of weakness in the background .. then an high volume up bar .. could be a trap
Dr. Gary did this a while back in the thread. I thought I'd put up dailys of th 4 indexes and see what the opinions are. I marked them up only briefly. Honestly, I can't tell a whole lot. What I don't see is what would be called a buying climax, so I question if a top is in. It may be a top for a correction such as an a,b,c as I've labeled on the chart, but is it a top for a reversal. I don't know. Its interesting that the TF and NQ have already made a lower high and are in the last leg of an a,b,c if one is going to form. The ES and the YM are behind in that regard. I guess from what I read they tend to lag behind the others.
As far as the volume goes, it was high on Friday and I guess you could say there was supply coming in. I look back a little ways and see indications of demand as well. On TF for example, I point to a down bar with high volume. The next bar has almost the same amount of volume but the range, or spread is probably half. The third down bar has even less volume. Its about 2/3rds of the volume of the bar with the arrow. I also notice that Friday had the highest volume since November. Not sure if that is enough to indicate a reversal.
Hi David here is my take on your charts .. i repainted you pic
but please bare with me , as iam still a beginner at wyckoff and vsa .. and take all i say with a grain of salt
also its not easy to analyse the early stage of a trading range , or correction.. we have to see how it unfolds..
but clues can be made .. and every new bar.. will reveal us more. info..
A. ES
High volume with close off the low
B.
price wents down on increased volume dips into an artea of previous resistance (supply)
and rallies back up closing on its high heavy buing in that bar
after a rather weack rallie back to the top . a ultra wide speard down bar on ultra high
volume closing on its lows , right at the support line..
well we can only see the reaction of that bar , next week .. if theere has been hidden
buying in it .. we wil se e a gap up.. else if that was aneffort to fall .. we have to
see a follow thru..
but its an eraly stage to say if its distribution.. or re accumualtion
but bear in mind that we also make higher highs and lows..
YM
A
high volume on a bar wich has taken out the previous two bar lows
and rallied back to close near it high , demand is coming in , a spring
B
the volume is slightly lower but still average , and the bar has a wide spraed
if this was an effort to rise.. it fails.. as it shows no relut ie. follow thru
the next bar has higher volume . it is an inside bar. if only by a few points
it fell back and rallied back .. i guess bar B ran into heavy supply.. wich has been
absorbed in this bar..
u can see clearly that volume droped off and we form no demand bars.. as the professionals
have withdrawn from trading.. as they want to see the reaction of the market...
C
ultra high volume on a wide spread down bar .. closing slightly of the lows..
but nearly the same level as bar A ..
i think that this move is a shakeout.. in order to get rid off the weakholders
wich they allready have met .. after the absorbtion.. as price hasnt advanced .. so there
is still alot of supply arround.. wich they have to shake off..
TF
as the range starts to unfold . we also see higher tops and higher bottoms..
this are signs of a positive market.. and a shakeout would most likely be on a market that
looks good to a trader.. till they get scared by a shakeout ..
A with bar A wich penetrates the demand line on high volume but also price is not
following thru on nearly the same amount of volume.. wich actually found support , at a
previous supply level.. are signs of a shakeout..
the following reaction C wich retest the breakdown.. is on increasing volume. if this
should be the beginning of a distribution .. the reaction should be on decreasing volume..
nevertheless the re test was succesfully .. as we have another wide spread down bar on
higher volume .. but still at the support level.. again to me this is a move to suck in
looks more and more like a shakeout .. and iam gaining confident ,, that the professionals are bullish..
1. high volume spring , on a steep demand line
2. increased volume on an up bar wich closes in the middle , supply swamping demand here
the next bar drops off in volume slightly but makes a higher high and low as the previous bar
it closes on its high.. means supply has been absorbed..
3. this bar is an interresting one , its a test bar in VSA .. and its a succesfull test .. it was marked down
into an area where there was previous high volume and supply , and rallied back to close on the high ,now that this bar has lower volume then the previous bars.. especially the supply bar .. means that the absorbtion has been succesfull and that there is no more supply left .. this is a sign of strenght..
also see how the wide spread down bar .. has lesser volume then any other bar on this chart..
again .. i still think that this is a shakeout manouver
I am happy to see that there is a good community of Wyckoff practionar at this forum. I am very pleased to find such a forum and will try to share some knowledge.
I always found aud/usd hard to read but I tried to apply Wyckoff to the hourly chart and suddenly it became clear that it had been in accumulation and is going up as of now.
Too bad I did not trade it as it has gone up about 500 pips (JAC?). Wasn´t sure about the analysis until I see more of these setups.
