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Here are my charts of CL starting with the weekly. I show two daily chart, one with 24 hour data and one with day session data. I also have a 3 hour and an 8 Better Renko. They tend to show different things. Whether or not I'm seeing them correctly remains to be seen.
From what I see I tend to think CL is preparing to rally, but it needs to prove itself by getting above the most recent trading range. Some things glare out at me, but you never know. Now, I'm not saying that there isn't room for an additional down move, but it appears that there is preparation for a rally. The 46,000 contracts on the 8 range is one of those glaring things.
Things to look out for. A real breakdown below the low of the trading range. It can also spring the low of the trading range. A real breakout above the trading range or a false breakout, or Up thrust.
Well, CL gapped open to the downside and is down 1.24 as I write this. It's frustrating when what you think you are seeing isn't what's happening. It makes me not want to trust any of what I apply to the markets. At least I think I left the door open for additional downward movement. We got the breakdown of the trading range, so we my be heading for 98-100.
Hi David,
Ive been listening to a lot of Andrew Menaker lately and to poorly paraphrase him he says this is one of the big and unique challenges we face as traders. You can/will be wrong about half the time but you can still make a very good living. Almost no other profession is like that.
Furthermore menaker says the BEST traders he knows handle this, and other discomforts, including frustration, the best. That is the job description of a trader: handling discomfort in its many forms.
I know from experience it can be horribly frustrating to feel like you have no clue what or why something happened. As Wyckoff traders, or in my case at least, we were drawn to Wyckoff for the fact that often times we can understand "why" this or that happened. When we don't understand that "why" we get frustrated because we are people that, most likely, need that understanding.
This is especially true when I have been studying under Dr. Dayton and then I see that he almost always knows whats going on and I feel like a failure when we cant see what he sees most of the time.
Sorry to go on for so long in your thread, but when I heard menaker talk about this I was blown away. This has been my biggest problem in trading...practicing a time frame or market for a while, then quitting because I lose too many times and can understand why something happened.
Thanks for listening to me babble but I thought this might help someone else out there that has been suffering the way I have. and it is good for me to put it in words- maybe I need to start my own journal
I am the last person to be commenting on your charts because I know you are a much better chart reader than I am, but I do remember Dayton saying that when you see a hard move down to support you are most likely to see the support break. This does confuse me because I have heard david weis talk about the Effort Vs Reward like you talked about, but given all the weakness in the background that I have notated it makes sense that this support would break. Of course, its easy and unfair to do in hindsight but I don't see much strength in that chart. Id be open to your correction, of course- im just hear to learn.
Thanks for your post. Feel free to post all you want.
I really don't expect to right a high percentage of the time. I think as traders we also have to be aware that anything can happen at anytime. In other words, be prepared for the unexpected. In looking back at my analysis, I see that I had indicated a trading range. When CL gaped down it gaped down below that trading range. I haven't been trading for a number of reasons, but I like to think that if I were I would have been prepared to act accordingly. I think being prepared and having a plan going into the session is a big part of succeeding. One of the other parts would be to trading that plan and not just doing things on a whim.
Again, feel free to post, and by all means it would benefit you to have a journal. Whether it be here on futures.io (formerly BMT), in a notebook, or both.
Don't cut yourself short. Always feel free to comment you opinions. I am learning as well.
I think your are correct in your assessment of the background condition. There is a lot of weakness. I think I was viewing the area indicated as a fairly strong support level. Regardless, it can still break as it did.
I have heard the same thing from Gary Dayton about strong moves to support as well as high volume coming into support. I too get confused about whether that is bearish or effort vs. result. I think we need to be prepared for any scenario. Price can bounce from the support area and price can break the support area. I think I tend to not pay close enough attention to background. Or, maybe I felt that the main trend is was still up.
In looking back at the chart I see that price had not hit the larger uptrend line. Maybe I should have made the assumption it would at least do that. I think ultimately it makes sense not to beat myself up over any of it. I think that goes for everyone.
I think hindsight chart mark ups are valuable. Yes, it is a different game in real time, but marking up charts help to see the conditions we look for. In my opinion. You pointed out a number of things I didn't see, or I saw them, but didn't put 2 and 2 together.
Thanks for the comments on the chart. I think they are accurate.
So, here is a current daily of CL. I think there is still some more upside potential, but the down trend channel will have to break so see a continued move higher.
Hello, just saw this thread today, when I was checking out an info from a friend about VPA which is supposed to be a better version of VSA, he likes swimming around with ideas on wychoff that use indicators. Great thread I must add, cos I looked at a few of your posts from the first, and I saw comments from some wychoff specialists.
This would be my first post here, I never thougt I had anything worth while to add.
Your chart looked very noisy and confusing so I tried to edit it to the way I find a little easy to read, hope you don't mind.
The instrunment has been trending whithin a channel as indicated by your green up trend. On getting to the over-bought region at 1 and formed a range at 2.
At 2a whithin the range it met with another resistance and fell back to support at 3. (I tend to avoid trading whithin a range unless I can find this kind of edge and even then I prefare using them for retest trades). Using your cummulative volume this seems to be a first sign of weakness, and a retest of that low (2) was with great volume without any progress, ending with a spring(effort without result and strength at the lows I think).
Market goes back to the resistance 2a at 3a with a great cummulative vol, I would expect long up bars with good progressive closes but this closes are no way progressive. The approach to 2a is very unsure and difficult it seems and immediately after market goes a little above 2a it reverses the next day and takes away the two day profit. I would only trade this scenario by going to a lower time frame like 1 or 2hrs etc to look for a possible move back to 3.
Market now fails to reach 3 and instead reverses very fast top side. here no edge at the middle of the range so no reason to look for a trade for me.
At 4 the market makes a new high with volume comparable to 1 to trade this I like a retest that is a shrunk down bar with less volume but the next day the market drops down sharply and keeps falling till 4a.
Pt 4 looks like a failed attepmt to go higher and when market starts to go up I have an edge ready incase market wants to interact with that resistance.
At 5 Market indeed gets to 4 but again fails to get higher, cummulative volume is lower that a 4 and market crashes down back to 4a at 5a, volume at 5a is higher than 4a possible weak volume.
Market now tries going higher at 6 but after a tiny peep into resistance 1 that fails on diminishing cumulative volume, it goes back down and breaks the support at 4a and 5a, the break down volume has increased.
This break down like at 4 is very visible so when market starts back up this becomes another edge.
At 6b market returns to former resistances at 2a and 3a; yes its a wide up bar with very good close but the cumulative volume is very much reduced compared to the last time up at 6, and each rally up has been reducing in volume since at 5.
That beautiful looking upthrust on resistance 2a and 3a would be my cue to sell, because for my amature sence of reasoning its the first time I see a lot of factors supporting such, with the finale, the uptrust. to a well defined edge and its a wide down bar with a good close after a drying up of demand on the former up wave.
Market broke through 6a on increasing cummulative volume. Got to the edge at formerly defined at 3b but there was no rallying whatsoever.
At the bottom of the range the is a spring. Here is where market must break through for us to have a true trend.
The market forces have just been interacting within a range the breaking of resistance of 1 at 4 and 5 look like uptrusts, The down waves have steadily increased in volume from 5 but the up waves have shrunk.
At 7 the first down wave may be climactic, since the wave that actually broke trough the low of the range 2 had a diminished volume and the bars closes make me believe buying came in at that low.
Market has gone back to support possibly turned resistance at 6a, I will want to see a long down bar with good volume at this point to sell, with stop midway between 5a and 6a.
Or a breaking below 2 again and a test back in form of an upthrust (support turned resistance). If these and other subtleties for selling don't manifest, I will have to see more indications before I can think to be bullish around the lower edges of this range.
This is what I think about this chart, hope it makes sense.
The pound has been ranging for a long time. Coiling preparing for it's vertical move. Question is always which way will the vertical move be. I put the probabilities to the upside. My charts give the reasons.
I mainly go with the higher time frames such a monthly and weekly, but look at a 2 hour for the more immediate picture.
and it is good for me to put it in words- maybe I need to start my own journal