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Some technical people may call a hinge a bear flag. So in this case, we have a selling bar and the upside reaction was labored and weak. Thus setting up a proper sell trade.
Gary
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
Another long entry... with strength in the back ground I feel pretty comfortable adding. First trade safe(ish). Second trade we will see when we get to 1.3290 again. Proving tough Creek to break.
Wyckoff mentions the 50% mark retest on a strong advance or decline as trade entry points. I don't have a lot of experience with this yet, but it worked in this case. Also the bars are showing strong rejection from this point and buying coming in. So looked like a safe point to enter on the test of the 50% High Volume bar once again.
Looks like gold had a nice spring last week after going sideways. It also looks as though ti jumped the creek and is now a bit over sold in the trend channel. A low volume pullback to the creek could be another area for a long. Hopefully Gary will comment. :-)
Ill start with a quote from Rollo Tape (a pseudonym for Wyckoff- like a lot of you guys use!)
'The study of the responses is one of the most valuable in the Tape (Chart) Readers education. It is almost an unerring guide to the technical position of the Market' This is a very important statement. You are always looking at the response to moves in the market. Is the move in harmony with the general market direction or against it?
You must always be on the lookout for a change in the immediate trend. One way you do this is by looking at the selling waves (in an uptrend). If the selling waves start to increase in time and distance or the buying waves shorten, either or both will be an indication of a change of immediate trend. (of course you reverse this in a downtrend).
Thought I would do a longer term chart to see what we have in the background that may give us some clues about the retracement we are in right now.
What do we know:
EDIT: 2 day chart
We know we are in a down trend that has been active for some time now. Around Christmas volume dries up but the trend continues down. Volume is light. But we do have indications of strength coming into the market for instance at M1 we get the second highest volume closing of the lows with no follow through. We then get a significant shakeout at M2. At N we get a very low volume decline and O produces a high volume Rally which gets very heavily sold into and in my mind starts the Christmas decline. Never the less we know that we do have bulls in the background.
At A the bulls spot their chance to exert some pressure. We have a shortening of the thrust at the start of January. B is the first indication of real volume and real strength since Early December. this is further tested with a low volume decline indicating the bears are no longer interested in lower prices, which leads to a strong rally with the highest volume since October at C... Any of these factors in isolation is not a COB (Change of Behavior), but together, we have a definitive change in behavior. (C is VOB- Volume of the Bottom- rarely tested)
At D we run into our first Bears. Price is pushed down to test the Intentions of the Volume of the Bottom at C, but the bulls kick in to move price to close on the mid range to high of the bar. It is here we know we need to build cause for a move higher. From D to E we have a clustering of the closes. What we need to look at is the closes, are the mid range to higher (Possible break up) or mid range to lower ( Possible break down)? In this case they are to the highs, which tells us that when we return to the lows the rallies have more thrust to them ie more buying on the lows that selling on the highs. (Subtle I agree). Remember we are looking at the average of those 5 bars from D to F. Volume is also high through this period. Cause Vs Effect... lots of cause and no effect.
At F we go higher on good volume. But look at what happens at G, we are into new higher ground, but no one wants to take price higher, so we get out of the longs and move lower. It is not surprising that price does not get picked up on the first Rally.... would you buy the first Rally? It needs to be proven that the Bulls are willing and the CO is actually committed to take prices higher. We head lower. And in True Market Fashion we head down to new(ish) lows and create a spring to trap the breakout traders and gain momentum for a move up. Thus we do at H. This was initially my first Long position. At I we get some bag holding (ie holding the highs of the previous bar and capturing shorts) before we break again into new ground and Jump the Creek at J. We break higher but once again we don't have the support to move higher. K moves to high ground and is rejected at 1.35 (sig resistance). The reason we dont move higher is a Trend line above adds to the shorts. So we get out and move lower. Price tries to find support in the middle of the Range at K1 but that is not where the proven demand (The CO) has established as a true demand zone so we fall back to this area at 1.3ish. To L. From here we are rallying on increased Volume. We have tested minor support at L1 and have moved up signifacntly.
Now the interesting things we need to take note of are....
-We are not getting price to be significantly picked up by the funds and specs and to move price higher.
-The Trend line is above us and this will (as shown) act as significant resistance.
-If we look at X-X then compare with Z-Z we have a shortening of the buying wave and conversely a lengthening of the selling wave.
-This are in a big trading range which could be establishing cause for a move higher, and we would expect to see more volume of the bottoms (which is missed as the CO timed the bottom with Roll Over (reduced Volumes) a a very clever move)
-We have established now the strength of the bears in K so we know what effort is going to needed to get Jump the Creek.
How do we process all this... well for me I buy at Ice and Sell at Creek. I hold to make sure we are not going through creek not getting out at the best price but in the case that this is the time we move through Ice or Creek. The Chart has given clear buy and sell signals in my mind for longer term trading.
On the 30 min chart, a pullback on a lack of supply would probably set up a proper buy on this time frame.
Gary
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
So Far low volume day indicates lack of demand. hardly surprising as we come to a strong weekly Trend Line showing strong supply. Im looking for a reaction at the JOC new Ice level.
Weekly
Hourly
Just keep an eye on that 1hr Supply candle which should influence the upward progress of price.
when you say keep an eye on the hourly supply bar, do you mean the one to the far left?
There is also a demand or buying bar to the left of your yellow arrow, isn't it? Is the weak volume lack of demand or lack of supply?
The Euro chart has confused me for a long time because based on your weekly its in a big trading range and appears to be right in the middle of it. Seems like it could go either way, but for day trades is the 60 minutes sufficient enough for decison making? thanks
I trade mostly from the Hourly (4hrly and Daily). I just posted the weekly chart to show that we are coming up to a Reverse Trend Line that is established. As Wyckoff says know your place in the trend.
If Price Action is going to move through the reverse TL then I am wanting to see the reaction at around 1.33 if it gets to their.
We have a low volume day which could indicate a lack of supply and a move through, but we shall see. We definitely have ease of movement to the upside, demand in the background, and Higher highs.
Thus a pullback (normal retrace) to 1.33 would gather strength from a lot of players for a push through supply.
But #1 Rule Anything could happen
Oh and yes the Lines come across from the Supply bar on the 29th Feb- which has not been tested as yet and could be the reason we are up here. I am unclear and thus out till I become clear.
Weekly chart of crude oil. Looks like it absorbing the supply to the left and preparing to move higher. I am not totally clear on if it is absorbing or in the process of distributing. Please chime in. I say absorption because the closes are either near the highs or well off the low.
