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Wyckoff Trading Method
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Wyckoff Trading Method

  #771 (permalink)
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muscleman View Post
It is a bit confusing to me because things seem to be quietly changing to the bullish side. Today we see health volume pushing the stock up. As we approach the close, the stock pulls back with much lower volume. I think this says that the tide probably have turned, and we may see the stock going back to $10 soon?

On the hourly chart, the three previous bars before the last hourly bar were small range, and lighter volume. Since the 8.40 are is creek on the hourly chart, this lack of demand led to selling in the last hour as noted by a larger down bar with increased volume. This would appear to me, that the market will retest 8.20 area with 8.00 as being the demand bar on the hourly chart.

Gary

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
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  #772 (permalink)
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Gary Fullett View Post
On the hourly chart, the three previous bars before the last hourly bar were small range, and lighter volume. Since the 8.40 are is creek on the hourly chart, this lack of demand led to selling in the last hour as noted by a larger down bar with increased volume. This would appear to me, that the market will retest 8.20 area with 8.00 as being the demand bar on the hourly chart.

Gary

I see. So taking today's volume action into account, can we still say that down bars generally have higher volume than up bars? Today's opening two hourly bars have quite high volume.

Today's price action clearly says bulls took control at market open, but as 8.4 is hit, bulls are tired and bears slowly took control as market close. But how would we know in which way the market is more likely to break out?
Maybe we should just say that it is currently unclear which way it will break out, so we should just step aside and wait until it gets clear?

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  #773 (permalink)
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muscleman View Post
Maybe we should just say that it is currently unclear which way it will break out, so we should just step aside and wait until it gets clear?


Yes. We need more information for the chart. To me, the chart is midrange between $5 and $10.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.

Last edited by Gary Fullett; May 1st, 2012 at 07:32 PM. Reason: one more thing...
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  #774 (permalink)
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Gary,

On the trading platform that you are using, are you able to do back testing of the Wyckoff method? Have you or anyone that you know of done this?

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  #775 (permalink)
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Gary Fullett View Post
Yes. We need more information for the chart. To me, the chart is midrange between $5 and $10.

Gary, this is an hourly chart of BAC from earlier this year. It went side ways for a while, and at the end of this chart, it jumped up sharply to $10 with heavy volume.

Could you please look at this chart, and let me know if there are signs that this is an accumulation by the operators? It is very hard for me to identify that. There are a few tops showing sellers distribution and there are a few bottoms showing that buyers accumulation. Overall it is hard to see clearly what is happening. Maybe this is the nature of the market. Sometimes it is indeed hard to see through, so we are better off just wait and make no trades?
We could certainly sell tops and buy bottoms for short term trades, and we will still be quite profitable here. I just want to know if there is any way for longer term traders like me to identify the breakout direction and start gradually building the position?

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  #776 (permalink)
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Gary Fullett View Post
A stock that trades from the mid-fifties to five dollars can not be considered a bullish stock in any time frame. BAC may have bounced from $5 to $10, but when you look at the big picture, if you wanted to be bullish, it will take a very long time to overcome the bearishness of the stock. If this was a stock that was in R&D and had a "wonder drug" coming out, then maybe you could see a retest back to the highs quickly. But considering this is a very largely held institutional stock, it would take a complete turnaround for this to become bullish again IMO. So to me, this stock will stay in a trading range for a long time.

I can relate to your analysis of the life cycle of a company; however, isn't that using fundamental analysis. Some information like that comes from their financial reports and some from the news. I sometimes wonder of the value of fundamental data, because it seems like it can help understand the company being traded. There seems to be some value in fundamental data and company history in doing technical analysis. What is your view, Gary?

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  #777 (permalink)
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StockJock View Post
Gary,

On the trading platform that you are using, are you able to do back testing of the Wyckoff method? Have you or anyone that you know of done this?


I use CQG and haven't done back testing. Wyckoff is very subjective, so it's difficult to back test. I do have over 10 years of archives where I've used live charts, at the time, for my analysis. You could look back at those and check the accuracy if you'd like.

Gary

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
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  #778 (permalink)
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muscleman View Post
Gary, this is an hourly chart of BAC from earlier this year. It went side ways for a while, and at the end of this chart, it jumped up sharply to $10 with heavy volume.

Could you please look at this chart, and let me know if there are signs that this is an accumulation by the operators? It is very hard for me to identify that. There are a few tops showing sellers distribution and there are a few bottoms showing that buyers accumulation. Overall it is hard to see clearly what is happening. Maybe this is the nature of the market. Sometimes it is indeed hard to see through, so we are better off just wait and make no trades?
We could certainly sell tops and buy bottoms for short term trades, and we will still be quite profitable here. I just want to know if there is any way for longer term traders like me to identify the breakout direction and start gradually building the position?


If you're a long term trader, then the hourly chart is fairly insignificant to the read of the market. You're trying to combine time frames and you should do that. You can have different trends based on different time frames. This is troublesome when you try to compare smaller time frames to larger time frames. For long term traders, you should be looking at daily charts and beyond. The processing of a longer term chart can take anywhere from many days to years to build the process. The 60 minute chart is an intraday chart, which could be valid for days only, and have no effect on longer term.

Gary

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
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  #779 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.ltg-trading.com 
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Posts: 209 since Feb 2012
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StockJock View Post
I can relate to your analysis of the life cycle of a company; however, isn't that using fundamental analysis. Some information like that comes from their financial reports and some from the news. I sometimes wonder of the value of fundamental data, because it seems like it can help understand the company being traded. There seems to be some value in fundamental data and company history in doing technical analysis. What is your view, Gary?


Fundamental analysis can not be completely discounted. However, as a technical trader, technical analysis will reflect the underlying fundamentals of the company. The problem I have with fundamental analysis is that the numbers, in my opinion, can be fudged. But to me, a chart read is all fact based. Wyckoff did not discount fundamentals of a stock, but he understood how to read the tape of a stock's actions. To me, I think it's impossible to know all the fundamentals of a company unless you happen to be on the Board of that company. The only way to determine the value of a company is price.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
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  #780 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Gary Fullett View Post
If you're a long term trader, then the hourly chart is fairly insignificant to the read of the market. You're trying to combine time frames and you should do that. You can have different trends based on different time frames. This is troublesome when you try to compare smaller time frames to larger time frames. For long term traders, you should be looking at daily charts and beyond. The processing of a longer term chart can take anywhere from many days to years to build the process. The 60 minute chart is an intraday chart, which could be valid for days only, and have no effect on longer term.

Gary

Thank you Gary. Yes I am trying to incorporate wyckoff methods into options trading, and I normally would like to buy 1-2 month expiration options.
The reason I am looking at this hourly chart is because I want to dial down and find more clues of what the operators are trying to do. From the recent webinars of Dr. Dalton, he sometimes dial down and see if there are any clues.
On the daily chart, I cannot find any clue whether the operator tries to accumulate or distribute. Could you please take a look at my attached daily chart and tell me if there are any signs of accumulation on the area that I circled? Thanks a lot!

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