Wyckoff Trading Method - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Wyckoff Trading Method
Updated: Views / Replies:244,710 / 1,384
Created: by David_R Attachments:696

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 696  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Wyckoff Trading Method

  #751 (permalink)
Make it count
Vancouver, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Favorite Futures: Guitar
 
traveller's Avatar
 
Posts: 118 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 222 given, 179 received


madLyfe View Post
ah ok i thought you were talking about from their site..

no you have to pay- its like 100Dollars or something like this to join and get access to all the vids, I have never done it, but some of the guys at VSA Forum (Private Volume Spread Forum check it out here: VSA Forum • Index page) swear by them... Each to thier own.

Side note I recommend you join if you want to learn some VSA


Last edited by traveller; April 27th, 2012 at 12:19 AM. Reason: added note
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to traveller for this post:
 
  #752 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.ltg-trading.com 
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: CQG
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Gary Fullett's Avatar
 
Posts: 209 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 84 given, 368 received

ES daily and P&F charts

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Gary Fullett for this post:
 
  #753 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.ltg-trading.com 
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: CQG
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Gary Fullett's Avatar
 
Posts: 209 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 84 given, 368 received



muscleman View Post
Gary, thanks a lot for your comments. Would you please take a look at these two stocks? First one is MMT.V (Canada). I find it hard to tell if we are in a distribution stage since Feburary 2012, or this is re-accumulation.
From the daily chart, the price pattern since Feb. looks like a contracting triangle. On April 3rd, it tries to break above 1.1 but closed right at 1.1. now it is approaching 1.1 again, but volume is getting lower. I am a newbie here, but I guess this would mean that we are more likely to go down than breaking 1.1 and going up?

Mart Resources Inc.: CVE:MMT quotes & news - Google Finance

Another one I am watching is BAC. We had buying climax on March 19 and topped at 10.10, and now we are heading down. This week is sideways slightly up, and volume decreasing sharply, so I guess this is clearer than MMT, and it looks more like a re-distribition week this week?

Bank of America Corp: NYSE:BAC quotes & news - Google Finance


Any stock that is under $5 is a VERY speculative stock, and probably has little or no earnings. Thus subjected to a lot of manipulation. I would suggest staying away from those stocks. They tend to be stocks that have too much risk, even though the risk is just over one dollar. I really can't comment on the chart because I don't think those types of stocks are worth your money and time. Once in a while, a stock like this will do well, but the odds don't favor it.

Regarding BAC, a buying climax occurs when a stock is in an UPTREND. Since BAC is in a downtrend, this can not be a buying climax. What you saw at that area was stopping action in a downtrend by strong hands selling into the rally. The buying climax is a process in which a trend goes from up to down.

BAC is one of the poorest performing stocks in a relatively weak sector. If you want to be in the banking sector, there are stocks that are better positioned than BAC such as JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, and many regional banks. Wyckoff always wanted to buy the strongest stock in the strongest sector and BAC doesn't meet that criteria.

Please don't take this as any negativity to your charts. I'm just trying to use proper Wyckoff terminology to the charts you presented.

Gary

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Gary Fullett for this post:
 
  #754 (permalink)
Elite Member
Seattle, WA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Fidelity active trader, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Fidelity, Infinity futures
Favorite Futures: futures, stocks
 
Posts: 423 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 202 received




Gary, thanks a lot for your comments. Would you please take a look at these two stocks? First one is MMT.V (Canada). I find it hard to tell if we are in a distribution stage since Feburary 2012, or this is re-accumulation.
From the daily chart, the price pattern since Feb. looks like a contracting triangle. On April 3rd, it tries to break above 1.1 but closed right at 1.1. now it is approaching 1.1 again, but volume is getting lower. I am a newbie here, but I guess this would mean that we are more likely to go down than breaking 1.1 and going up?

Mart Resources Inc.: CVE:MMT quotes & news - Google Finance
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Another one I am watching is BAC. We had buying climax on March 19 and topped at 10.10, and now we are heading down. This week is sideways slightly up, and volume decreasing sharply, so I guess this is clearer than MMT, and it looks more like a re-distribition week this week?

Bank of America Corp: NYSE:BAC quotes & news - Google Finance

Attached Thumbnails
Wyckoff Trading Method-1.png   Wyckoff Trading Method-2.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #755 (permalink)
Elite Member
Seattle, WA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Fidelity active trader, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Fidelity, Infinity futures
Favorite Futures: futures, stocks
 
Posts: 423 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 202 received


Gary Fullett View Post
Any stock that is under $5 is a VERY speculative stock, and probably has little or no earnings. Thus subjected to a lot of manipulation. I would suggest staying away from those stocks. They tend to be stocks that have too much risk, even though the risk is just over one dollar. I really can't comment on the chart because I don't think those types of stocks are worth your money and time. Once in a while, a stock like this will do well, but the odds don't favor it.

Regarding BAC, a buying climax occurs when a stock is in an UPTREND. Since BAC is in a downtrend, this can not be a buying climax. What you saw at that area was stopping action in a downtrend by strong hands selling into the rally. The buying climax is a process in which a trend goes from up to down.

BAC is one of the poorest performing stocks in a relatively weak sector. If you want to be in the banking sector, there are stocks that are better positioned than BAC such as JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, and many regional banks. Wyckoff always wanted to buy the strongest stock in the strongest sector and BAC doesn't meet that criteria.

Please don't take this as any negativity to your charts. I'm just trying to use proper Wyckoff terminology to the charts you presented.

Gary

Thank you Gary. I have been doing value investing for over 3 years, and as I recently come across Wyckoff, I think it is great to combine these two together. I am fully aware of your comments above for these two stocks, but since I have done a lot of fundamental research into these two stocks, I think they are solid.
Could you please comment in terms of Wyckoff volume analysis, and let me know if they look negative?

MMT is in a contracting triangle with decreasing volume.

BAC was in a solid down trend in the entire 2011, but it bottomed out in November, and bounced back up. Is there a way to know if the bounce from $5 to $10 is a dead cat bounce, or we could know that the accumulation has completed and we are heading up now?

Reply With Quote
 
  #756 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.ltg-trading.com 
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: CQG
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Gary Fullett's Avatar
 
Posts: 209 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 84 given, 368 received


muscleman View Post
Could you please comment in terms of Wyckoff volume analysis, and let me know if they look negative?

MMT is in a contracting triangle with decreasing volume.

As far as the "pattern" that you see, you could well be right. But unfortunately, due to the low price of the stock, it has much less validity due to the increased probablity of manipulation on a lower priced stock like this. Because several million shares can sway that stock a decent percentage. This is what they consider in the industry as a "pump and dump" situation. I'm not saying this particular stock is a candidate for this, but these types of stocks tend to have that characteristic.


Quoting 
BAC was in a solid down trend in the entire 2011, but it bottomed out in November, and bounced back up. Is there a way to know if the bounce from $5 to $10 is a dead cat bounce, or we could know that the accumulation has completed and we are heading up now?

BAC stock, at one point, was about $56. So when the stock went to $4 in a matter of several years, this technical damage to the stock is not easily rectified. At the very least, the stock would have to get above $the $20 area, to me, to be considered positive. I think this stock is going nowhere for many years, and it will form some type of trading range due to the massive break. There was a reason for this stock to lose almost all it's value. So if there is to be an accumulation phase, it will take a long time to develop. In the mean time, my best advice would be to look for the edges of the market at important swing highs and swing lows to trade. It is true that the stock "doubled" in price, but you have to consider the whole story as it almost lost 100% of it's value. Again, this is a weak stock in a sector that has not performed well.

Gary

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Gary Fullett for this post:
 
  #757 (permalink)
Elite Member
Seattle, WA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Fidelity active trader, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Fidelity, Infinity futures
Favorite Futures: futures, stocks
 
Posts: 423 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 202 received


Gary Fullett View Post
As far as the "pattern" that you see, you could well be right. But unfortunately, due to the low price of the stock, it has much less validity due to the increased probablity of manipulation on a lower priced stock like this. Because several million shares can sway that stock a decent percentage. This is what they consider in the industry as a "pump and dump" situation. I'm not saying this particular stock is a candidate for this, but these types of stocks tend to have that characteristic.



BAC stock, at one point, was about $56. So when the stock went to $4 in a matter of several years, this technical damage to the stock is not easily rectified. At the very least, the stock would have to get above $the $20 area, to me, to be considered positive. I think this stock is going nowhere for many years, and it will form some type of trading range due to the massive break. There was a reason for this stock to lose almost all it's value. So if there is to be an accumulation phase, it will take a long time to develop. In the mean time, my best advice would be to look for the edges of the market at important swing highs and swing lows to trade. It is true that the stock "doubled" in price, but you have to consider the whole story as it almost lost 100% of it's value. Again, this is a weak stock in a sector that has not performed well.

Gary

Thank you Gary. I am trying to combine value investing with wyckoff method, and solve my problem of when to buy. The problem with value investing is that after doing all the fundamental research and determine the stock is deeply undervalued, I still don't know if I should buy now, or I had better wait for a few months.
Wyckoff methods will be able to help me on that and tell me if there is a high probability that the stock may fall further in the intermediate term so I could wait for a better price to get in.
I have done extensive research on the banking sector and I believe it will come back in 2 years. Also I know a number of billionaire investors buying bank stocks, such as Wilbur Ross.
From volume analysis and if you just look at the chart for the near term, it does look like price will fall further, right?

Regarding a contracting triangle, if we see volume decreasing sharply as it approaches the end of the triangle, what can we say about it? (Let's assume this is a highly traded decent stock instead of a penny stock) I just want to learn more about how this works theoratically.

Reply With Quote
 
  #758 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.ltg-trading.com 
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: CQG
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Gary Fullett's Avatar
 
Posts: 209 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 84 given, 368 received


muscleman View Post
Thank you Gary. I am trying to combine value investing with wyckoff method, and solve my problem of when to buy. The problem with value investing is that after doing all the fundamental research and determine the stock is deeply undervalued, I still don't know if I should buy now, or I had better wait for a few months.
Wyckoff methods will be able to help me on that and tell me if there is a high probability that the stock may fall further in the intermediate term so I could wait for a better price to get in.
I have done extensive research on the banking sector and I believe it will come back in 2 years. Also I know a number of billionaire investors buying bank stocks, such as Wilbur Ross.
From volume analysis and if you just look at the chart for the near term, it does look like price will fall further, right?

Regarding a contracting triangle, if we see volume decreasing sharply as it approaches the end of the triangle, what can we say about it? (Let's assume this is a highly traded decent stock instead of a penny stock) I just want to learn more about how this works theoratically.

One of the "bibles" of technical trading is by McGee. In that book, they have many "patterns" that show which way a move will most likely go. In the case of a triangle, the breakout tends to be in the direction of trend. In Wyckoff, we use horizontal lines to tell us support and resistance and demand and supply. So in a stock, you would want to buy it if the trend of the stock is at horizontal support in an UPTREND. Conversely, you would want to sell the horizontal line at resistance in a DOWNTREND. So in my eyes, I don't look at it as a triangle, but as horizontal support and resistance. If you feel the stock is undervalued and it's a $1 stock, your risk is nominal. Many times, the technical picture will lead the fundamental analysis and, in this case, if the technical analysis is poor and fundamental analysis is strong, that points to, in my mind, weakness and not strength because it appears to be a red flag. A stock or commodity is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. At this point, the stock is what it is. So traders feel the value is where is where it's trading at. Please remember, stocks tend to see things 3-6 months in advance.

Gary

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Gary Fullett for this post:
 
  #759 (permalink)
Elite Member
Seattle, WA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Fidelity active trader, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Fidelity, Infinity futures
Favorite Futures: futures, stocks
 
Posts: 423 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 202 received


Gary Fullett View Post
One of the "bibles" of technical trading is by McGee. In that book, they have many "patterns" that show which way a move will most likely go. In the case of a triangle, the breakout tends to be in the direction of trend. In Wyckoff, we use horizontal lines to tell us support and resistance and demand and supply. So in a stock, you would want to buy it if the trend of the stock is at horizontal support in an UPTREND. Conversely, you would want to sell the horizontal line at resistance in a DOWNTREND. So in my eyes, I don't look at it as a triangle, but as horizontal support and resistance. If you feel the stock is undervalued and it's a $1 stock, your risk is nominal. Many times, the technical picture will lead the fundamental analysis and, in this case, if the technical analysis is poor and fundamental analysis is strong, that points to, in my mind, weakness and not strength because it appears to be a red flag. A stock or commodity is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. At this point, the stock is what it is. So traders feel the value is where is where it's trading at. Please remember, stocks tend to see things 3-6 months in advance.

Gary

Gary, thanks a lot for your comments. I think this is getting interesting.
For stocks, I think the market cap is more important than the share price. If the market cap is large, it is impossible to manipulate even if the share price is $1. For example, if MSFT announces a 1:33 split, per share price will be less than $1, but does this mean some random person can manipulate it? Clearly not. MMT's market cap is over 300 M, so I think it is probably hard to manipulate. Usually how small is the market cap do you think can be easily manipulated?

Looking at BAC's monthly chart, the first chart is the run up to $56 high. Is there any clue that is the top to get out? The previous two years of volume seems steady each month.

The second chart is the run down and stablizing after making the $56 high. We somewhat formed a double bottom in 2009 and in 2011, and each bottom's volume is much higher than the average time. The most recent month is a down month, but volume is low. Does this mean anything? Wyckoff's method says if the trend is down, ideally all the down bars should have high volume and all the up bars should have lower volume, but sometimes I do see a trend going steadily with low volume, but just keep going in that direction, such as the entire 2011 for BAC, or the recent surge in ES from December 2011 to now.

Attached Thumbnails
Wyckoff Trading Method-1.png   Wyckoff Trading Method-2.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #760 (permalink)
Elite Member
Seattle, WA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Fidelity active trader, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Fidelity, Infinity futures
Favorite Futures: futures, stocks
 
Posts: 423 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 202 received




Gary, any updates on the ES?
The volume is lower than yesterday and price didn't move too much higher than yesterday's high. Weekly shows a close above last week's high but volume is lower. I guess for wyckoff methods, it will be more significant if volume is high but price didn't move too far, compared with volume is light but price moved relatively far?

Also I am wondering if you could comment on this Natural Gas monthly continuous futures chart please?

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1335591149322.png

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Wyckoff Trading Method

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Webinar: Wyckoff Method Tuesday, May 10th @ 4:30 PM Eastern Time DrGary The Elite Circle 23 January 27th, 2016 10:50 PM
TF trading using CCI method-it works ESFXtrader Emini Index Futures Trading 426 December 21st, 2014 07:27 PM
A simple trading method that produces results. kevinhenjum Elite Automated Trading 29 November 9th, 2011 11:00 AM
GomCluster Trading Method RODLM Elite Automated Trading 10 October 28th, 2011 07:05 AM
Is here anybody who is trading Felton method? Experiences? redford007 Trading Reviews and Vendors 3 June 6th, 2011 06:01 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:37 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-14 in 0.20 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.82.56.95