Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Old Highs (or any level) that have shown either high or low volume, rejection of price action, or absorption are significant. They are areas that need to be overcome for price to continue. The overcoming can happen well before the level (in this case 1350).
What we see here is price over running this level on the daily then coming back to test it- On the daily any shorts were absorbed and price advanced- we are not seeing much bar range and for me this is a sign that one force is definitely in control (demand in this case). The increase of volume at A is a transfer of risk. Wyckoff would say effort vs results, we have the effort to move price down lower but no result to do so, in fact price reverse after the high volume candle, and only one thing can do that Demand. Volume can decline on the rally as this is the dominant force. You don't need a lot of volume to continue a trend when the opposing force is weak.
In saying this in terms of wave structure this down wave was the first significant downwave we have had since Christmas- thus you need to red flag it for a possible change in behavior. We know now this was not the case, however at the time it could have been significant.
So nothing on your chart would make me want to take a short as yet.
regards
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Ahh now you have bought up a good point.... The teacher in Bar action is very important. Bar action is Bar action- it is discretionary, once you start to fit a program around it then here is where you run into issues! Bar action is also second to that of market structure! It is moments in time made from 5 components (range, close, volume, time and pressure according to Wyckoff), where as the structure is the operating principals- combine these and you have a very powerful tool for reading the markets in real time.
Volume Analysis will only give you part of the puzzle in my opinion (and I totally agree it will give you enough that you can trade successfully- and many people do using VSA, Wyckoff or any other version). But the structure of the market is very important.
I've looked at most of the Wyckoff/VSA structural concepts, the most effective and reliable one I have personally found in my backtesting is the low volume test.
When you have an uptrend established, lighter volume rallies are not considered bearish unless they lead to a supply bar to the downside (meaning high volume and wide bar length). Light volume rallies in uptrends is considered to be a lack of supply versus a lack of demand. Closes on these small bars at resistance can give us a clue as well. The key, as always, is trend.
Gary
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
The area that you're looking at on a larger time frame (daily chart), is at an area of support. The chart you showed doesn't show demand at this point, but may react due to the larger time frame support.
Gary
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
Eight months had expired before ES price action approach the area in question. This may explain your question.
Can a person really call this a retest? And yes, it's testing the 1350 area again. So is a test = to a retest?
Eight months of price action, fundamental pressures, political and everything thing else has taken place so the ES is likely a different animal as it approaches the 1350 area again, IMO.
I don't really have a set TIME rule when price test an area and then returns to re-test the same price area. Maybe Gary F or a better Wyckoff guru could shed light when too much time has elapsed before a retest loses it's significance.
dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see 
